Posted on 01/29/2016 12:01:58 PM PST by blam
Bob Bryan
January 29, 2016
Based on today's GDP release, it appears that the US economy is slowing but not near any sort of massive collapse.
Peter Schiff begs to differ.
The CEO and chief global strategist for Euro Pacific Capital, and noted perma-bear, said that serious economic destruction is just a few months away.
"I think the Fed is going to have negative interest rates before the election because we're going to be in a serious recession," Schiff told Business Insider on Friday.
In fact, Schiff said that we may already be in recession and this one is going to be a doozy.
"We're in worse shape now than we were in 2007," he said.
Chief among his concerns is a growing bubble of debt that has accumulated in the US, which he said "is even bigger than the real-estate bubble" that burst in 2008.
He said that there isn't as much debt in the real-estate sector, but the total sum of debt from student loans, auto loans, government debt, and the Fed's balance sheet is massive. According to Schiff, this total is by far bigger than what we saw before either the housing or tech bubbles.
Once this bubble pops, and Schiff fears that it may already have, the following recession will force the Federal Reserve's hand. This will make them pull interest rates into negative territory, much like the Bank of Japan's move on Friday.
"The Fed is going to go negative because they want to do something stimulative to try and boost the economy so the Republicans â or someone like Donald Trump â don't just walk away with the election," Schiff told us.
(snip)
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
Sub 1% economic growth and rapid deflation of commodity prices.
Some economists think we’re either already on the precipice of an economic collapse or very, very close to it.
I’d posted several times in the past six months that the big banks (I work for one) already have their systems setup for negative interest rates and have tested their systems to handle it as well.
You and I may not directly see a negative interest rate, rather we may see new “deposit fees” for putting money in an account, “transfer fees” for transferring money from one account to another, whether within the same bank or between banks, and other new types of “fees.”
When you see those fees start being implemented, negative interest rates won’t be far behind. It’s all part of the grand plan to separate you and I from more of our money, and enable the government to force us to spend our money “for sake of the economy and jobs.”
Why not? They forced Obamacare on us! This is all just th next logical step in central management and planning of our economy!!L
“The U.S. is facing a future demographic disaster. In Japan, it’s already here.”
Japan’s demographic problems are very different from ours. Japan has a rapidly aging population coupled with an extremely low birth rate and very little in-migration. By 2100, its population will likely be 20% lower than it is today. The problem for the U.S. is that its growing population (primarily through recent and likely future immigration) will be, on average, relatively less well-educated, less skilled, and therefore poorer than it is today.
oh itâs coming, negative rates until 2017 then the freefall all blamed on Republicans.
Call me an optimist, but I firmly believe that if we can hang on until the election, Trump will save the day. That is not my childlike intellect making that statement, but common sense. Trump is a business man and knows how to fix, and who can can fix. There will be a new sheriff in town, the losers will be gone, and everyone will want to be in on the action...Just hang on.
Well-played!
I think the consumer will step up with the low gas prices and cheap commodities. At least enough to stave off a recession. As for the govt. debt? We can kick that can down the road a lot further than many people think. Not forever, but darn near.
They have more old people wearing Depends than they have babies wearing diapers. There’s nothing “kinky” about it.
You are correct. We’ll have plenty of younger workers but our overall standard of living will fall dramatically.
Schiff is not the only forecaster saying this. Personally I think we are in the beginning of a deflationary depression. China is probably not going to have a soft landing. This is a global slowdown not just the US.
Not me...I'm going to entrust all of my money to these annuity companies...lol, like the one whose CEO looks like he's 20, with a female rep that looks even younger.
I see an upcoming episode of American Greed in a few years.
Truth, Justice, and the American Way.
Japan's growth is stunted because its population is shrinking. U.S. growth is stunted because much of our population growth is in groups that are not productive.
U.S. growth is stunted because much of our population growth is in groups that are not productive.”
Well, I think that much of our population growth is in groups that will be relatively less productive than the average of the previous three or four generations so I think we agree except with my calling this a “demographic” problem.
That collapse has been fewer than twelve months coming for the past five years, according to the raft of e-mails I get daily offering to tell me how to thrive through it, if I just watch their 35 minute video.
She’s stock-y now so that must be a secret message.
An important component of any plan is to buy more ammo. Friday is a great day to buy more ammo.
Gwjack
Last month when the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, the yield on U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds was 2.25%. Today, it’s 1.92%. No wonder people are worried about negative interest rates.
In the meantime, everyone who buys U.S. Treasury bonds now will receive 33 basis points less in interest than they would have if they’d bought them last month. And what will stop this trend from continuing and thereby discouraging potential U.S. bond buyers from looking elsewhere for better investments?
We all know multiple massive market interventions by the Federal Reserve has given a false sense of security. The growth in the markets were not organic in nature.
Time and again throughout the last several years corporations have readjusted projections for profits/revenue. The markets would react positively to earnings that met or exceeded “already lowered guidance”.
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for one reason and one reason alone...they needed some sort of smidgen of room to help battle the impending recession. They knew this, but draped it in Fed speak to disguise the true condition of the economy.
Just as Schiff commented, the increase in consumer spending was the result of increased healthcare cost. Not the first economist I heard say this exact thing.
The bank of Sealy Posturpedic won’t ever charge negative interest
It may come to that - it certainly has before.
Yup. Some towns with only half the people that were there just a few years ago. What will that do to house prices?
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