Saudis 'will not destroy the US shale industry'

"...Daniel Yergin, founder of IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates, said it is impossible for OPEC to knock out the US shale industry though a war of attrition even if large numbers of frackers fall by the wayside over coming months.

Mr Yergin said groups with deep pockets such as Blackstone and Carlyle will take over the infrastructure when the distressed assets are cheap enough, and bide their time until the oil cycle turns.

"The management may change and the companies may change but the resources will still be there," he told the Daily Telegraph.

"It takes $10bn and five to ten years to launch a deep-water project. It takes $10m and just 20 days to drill for shale," he said, speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

In the meantime, the oil slump is pushing a string of exporting countries into deep social and economic crises. "Venezuela is beyond the precipice. It is completely broke," said Mr Yergin.

Iraq's prime minister, Haider al-Abadi, said in Davos that his country is selling its crude for $22 a barrel, and half of this covers production costs. "It's impossible to run the country, to be honest, to sustain the military, to sustain jobs, to sustain the economy," he said.

This is greatly complicating the battle against ISIS, now at a critical juncture after the recapture of Ramadi by government forces. Mr al-Albadi warned that ISIS remains "extremely dangerous", yet he has run out of money to pay the wages of crucial militia forces........

According Airliners.net Iran is currently on an airliner buying binge. They have to replace the aging airlines they flew for years under the sanctions. Reports are they will immediately buy 127 Airbus airliners (8 A-380, 16 A-350). Many will be used airliners until new can be delivered. Reportedly A320 and A340.

It also said the Iranians are buying 580 airliners in the next 10 years.

They will also probably be looking to China or Russia to buy military aircraft to replace aging F-14 fighters.

Probably from the $150 billion Obama gave them back of sanctioned money.

In order to mobilize the people and equipment needed to nave another boom, especially when some who overextended toward the bust are either scratching or selling out for pennies on the dollar to get flush (I am speaking of the myriad service companies involved, not the oil companies, for the most part), and their bankers who will be slow to loan money to get things going, I believe the price will be over 80 for a year before widespread new drilling occurs.

Yes, we know where the oil is, but getting it out of the ground is a business enterprise and it has to make a profit.

In the meantime, an army of oil workers is idle or getting settled in new and different jobs which they might not want to leave, and that doesn't keep well. The longer equipment sits idle, the more it costs to get it going again, and it costs money every day it sits, in depreciation and degradation. Because of the size of the equipment, it is cost-prohibitive to store much of it inside, and it suffers from sitting idle.

Nope, You won't see a rush to the barricades unless there is very good reason to believe that oil prices will be at a level for a time period long enough to justify the mobilization and investment needed to start drilling wells on a widespread basis.

There will be some continued drilling by some of the bigger and better funded players, but that is a small fraction of what it was. (Presently, in this area the rig count is less than 25% of what it was at the peak.)

With the decline rate in horizontal wells, I expect oil will be back over $50 in a year, and over $80 in three. Unless, of course, the depression deepens and people have no place to drive.

As for setting the stage for another World War, we are rapidly approaching that point. That nuclear proliferation into the hands of fanatical governments has been fostered by the current government is amazing to me, especially when they seem so 'concerned' about American Christians owning black rifles (because somehow that is allegedly dangerous).

Of course, that might change the picture entirely, as far as oil is concerned.

Well, we are partially agreed. I still look at how quickly (in relative terms) the recent US capacity came online (with largely equipment that had to be built new, not “restored to serviceable condition”, and add in the overseas suppliers desperate for cash, and the prospect of yet lower production costs. To me, even with a US production fall, this adds up to a gradual recovery to around $50 / barrel, maybe a bit more, and then somewhat of a “hold” there for a good while. The average price “should” be set by the “swing” costs in the US, but the overseas players will be important too. So, we shall see. You may yet be right...

As for a depression, well, worldwide, the future economy is not looking so good at present, is it? (It’s a pretty lousy way to get to low energy prices!)

By “major war”, I don’t think it will be a World War, though it could be. IMO, some sort of regional conflict with “several” to maybe 100 nukes tossed about by parties like Iran, Saudi / Pakistan, maybe Israel gets dragged into it, is increasingly likely — and that’s pretty bad! :-(

Oil wells don't generally 'hold', at least not until late in life when their production is significantly reduced from their IP. Horizontal wells in tight formations like the Bakken lose about 80% of their production rate in the first three years, and while the decline is not as sharp from there, it continues at a lesser rate.

So the curves of demand and supply will cross out there somewhere, and where, when, and how steep the curves are will determine the next price peak.

As for 10 years, well, not exactly. I worked my first horizontal well in 1990, and continued to work horizontal wells (and some vertical exploration wells) until I worked my first Bakken horizontal well in 2001.

We did a lot of experimenting with well geometry, reentry laterals, different drilling fluids and tools, it was a very interesting time. The production guys developed completion techniques including multistage fracs.

The Bakken became national news in 2006-2008, and it really boomed from there.

This year the rig count is down 75% from the high.

The first wells were not drilled with new rigs. In fact, while there were some new rigs being built, old rigs were retrofitted for walking to operate within the pad well concept, especially after the Three Forks Formation (the rock formation below the Bakken) proved to be a producer, too.

The last of the retrofitted rigs I worked on had been released by may of last year, although there were others.

But now, there are specialized rigs designed to move from wellhead to wellhead on a multiwell pad, with no wells to drill.

The other aspect will be less obvious to you, but far more so to me.

While there are always some roaring young lions in the industry, the majority of the hands that were in supervisory positions as Wellsite Geologists, Company Hands, Directional Drillers and Toolpushers were leftovers from the last boom. Guys ranging in age from their 40s to their 70s. In 10 years you are going to lose a lot of those people. The longer it takes, the harder it will be because the personnel won't be there to make it happen.

Mining will experience the same phenomenon and has to some degree, as has the timber industry.

The danger of shutting down extractive industries and then trying to turn them back on is that the people, equipment, and know-how are perishable.

At some point you end up reinventing the wheel.

Back to the War. I don't see any of those interests (and others) as proxies or otherwise, taking on 'the little satan' without taking on 'the big satan'. Aside from that, alliances will probably serve much the same purpose as those in Europe before WW1 did to pull nation after nation into a conflict that essentially was sparked by the shooting of an Archduke in an obscure country. Little straws break camel's backs.

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