Yes, we know where the oil is, but getting it out of the ground is a business enterprise and it has to make a profit.
In the meantime, an army of oil workers is idle or getting settled in new and different jobs which they might not want to leave, and that doesn't keep well. The longer equipment sits idle, the more it costs to get it going again, and it costs money every day it sits, in depreciation and degradation. Because of the size of the equipment, it is cost-prohibitive to store much of it inside, and it suffers from sitting idle.
Nope, You won't see a rush to the barricades unless there is very good reason to believe that oil prices will be at a level for a time period long enough to justify the mobilization and investment needed to start drilling wells on a widespread basis.
There will be some continued drilling by some of the bigger and better funded players, but that is a small fraction of what it was. (Presently, in this area the rig count is less than 25% of what it was at the peak.)
With the decline rate in horizontal wells, I expect oil will be back over $50 in a year, and over $80 in three. Unless, of course, the depression deepens and people have no place to drive.
As for setting the stage for another World War, we are rapidly approaching that point. That nuclear proliferation into the hands of fanatical governments has been fostered by the current government is amazing to me, especially when they seem so 'concerned' about American Christians owning black rifles (because somehow that is allegedly dangerous).
Of course, that might change the picture entirely, as far as oil is concerned.
Well, we are partially agreed. I still look at how quickly (in relative terms) the recent US capacity came online (with largely equipment that had to be built new, not “restored to serviceable condition”, and add in the overseas suppliers desperate for cash, and the prospect of yet lower production costs. To me, even with a US production fall, this adds up to a gradual recovery to around $50 / barrel, maybe a bit more, and then somewhat of a “hold” there for a good while. The average price “should” be set by the “swing” costs in the US, but the overseas players will be important too. So, we shall see. You may yet be right...
As for a depression, well, worldwide, the future economy is not looking so good at present, is it? (It’s a pretty lousy way to get to low energy prices!)
By “major war”, I don’t think it will be a World War, though it could be. IMO, some sort of regional conflict with “several” to maybe 100 nukes tossed about by parties like Iran, Saudi / Pakistan, maybe Israel gets dragged into it, is increasingly likely — and that’s pretty bad! :-(