Well, we are partially agreed. I still look at how quickly (in relative terms) the recent US capacity came online (with largely equipment that had to be built new, not “restored to serviceable condition”, and add in the overseas suppliers desperate for cash, and the prospect of yet lower production costs. To me, even with a US production fall, this adds up to a gradual recovery to around $50 / barrel, maybe a bit more, and then somewhat of a “hold” there for a good while. The average price “should” be set by the “swing” costs in the US, but the overseas players will be important too. So, we shall see. You may yet be right...
As for a depression, well, worldwide, the future economy is not looking so good at present, is it? (It’s a pretty lousy way to get to low energy prices!)
By “major war”, I don’t think it will be a World War, though it could be. IMO, some sort of regional conflict with “several” to maybe 100 nukes tossed about by parties like Iran, Saudi / Pakistan, maybe Israel gets dragged into it, is increasingly likely — and that’s pretty bad! :-(
So the curves of demand and supply will cross out there somewhere, and where, when, and how steep the curves are will determine the next price peak.
As for 10 years, well, not exactly. I worked my first horizontal well in 1990, and continued to work horizontal wells (and some vertical exploration wells) until I worked my first Bakken horizontal well in 2001.
We did a lot of experimenting with well geometry, reentry laterals, different drilling fluids and tools, it was a very interesting time. The production guys developed completion techniques including multistage fracs.
The Bakken became national news in 2006-2008, and it really boomed from there.
This year the rig count is down 75% from the high.
The first wells were not drilled with new rigs. In fact, while there were some new rigs being built, old rigs were retrofitted for walking to operate within the pad well concept, especially after the Three Forks Formation (the rock formation below the Bakken) proved to be a producer, too.
The last of the retrofitted rigs I worked on had been released by may of last year, although there were others.
But now, there are specialized rigs designed to move from wellhead to wellhead on a multiwell pad, with no wells to drill.
The other aspect will be less obvious to you, but far more so to me.
While there are always some roaring young lions in the industry, the majority of the hands that were in supervisory positions as Wellsite Geologists, Company Hands, Directional Drillers and Toolpushers were leftovers from the last boom. Guys ranging in age from their 40s to their 70s. In 10 years you are going to lose a lot of those people. The longer it takes, the harder it will be because the personnel won't be there to make it happen.
Mining will experience the same phenomenon and has to some degree, as has the timber industry.
The danger of shutting down extractive industries and then trying to turn them back on is that the people, equipment, and know-how are perishable.
At some point you end up reinventing the wheel.
Back to the War. I don't see any of those interests (and others) as proxies or otherwise, taking on 'the little satan' without taking on 'the big satan'. Aside from that, alliances will probably serve much the same purpose as those in Europe before WW1 did to pull nation after nation into a conflict that essentially was sparked by the shooting of an Archduke in an obscure country. Little straws break camel's backs.