Recession Indicators Flashing Red

Wall Street Journal ^ | 1/24/2016 | Josh Zumbrun

[EBH]

successfully navigated, global growth could be derailed."

Of the warning signs, the decline in U.S. industrial production has one of the best track records. The output from mines, factories and utilities has always begun to decline before recession strikes.

"Manufacturing tends to lead the economic cycle and it tends to be an indicator of the swings," said Thomas Costerg, senior economist at Standard Chartered. "Manufacturing is struggling."

A strong U.S. dollar and weak economies internationally are taking a toll. But unlike past declines in industrial production, today's decline has been driven primarily by the collapse in the oil industry. The output from U.S. factories has been little changed over recent months. But mining output has fallen over 10%, driven by a 62% decline in oil- and gas-well drilling.

Corporate profits, too, have been weighed down by the energy industry. An analysis from Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research found that profit margins among the companies in the S&P 500 stock index--if energy companies are excluded--have been little changed over the past year. It is only by including major laggards like Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp. and Valero Energy Corp. that U.S. corporate profit margins shrink.

If it were just oil companies in decline, the worries would be easier to dismiss, but the falling stock market could unnerve many consumers who hadn't previously been alarmed. In a recession, falling confidence--which hasn't shown up so far--typically leads households to pull back on purchases

[struggle]

Great time for this to be blamed in Democrat policy, provided we survive it.

[faithhopecharity]

we’ve been in a deep deep recession for 6 or 7 years

if the writer sees red signals, it is for an outright depression

[DB]

Besides the endless pumping of the economy with newly printed money, the economy was doing little until the oil shale boom hit. That pulled up a number of economic indicators making things look like we were starting to do well again. That is now crashing and the wealth it provide is no longer flowing into the economy. Many other industries that are not related to oil did not do well during the oil boom. So it looks like we’re returning to where we were before the boom. And that is in spite of the trillions Obama has further indebted us.

[DB]

The shale oil boom is over. That was one of the few things pulling us up. No longer.

[Fury]

I’ve always seen rail traffic is a good leading indicator for economic downturns. Many of the rails got clobbered last week based on their reporting a decrease in tonnage shipped.

[ReaganGeneration2]

The article continues to ignore the types of jobs this economy produces. “Breadwinner” jobs have declined since 2001, while waiter/bartender jobs have skyrocketed.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-05/these-aint-your-grandfathers-jobs-why-fridays-rip-should-be-sold

[unixfox]

This can’t be true. Obozo told us in his SOTU speech that everything was coming up roses.

What a waste of oxygen.

[faithhopecharity]

probably nothing can pull America up again economically so long as Obama and Washington DC are destroying or suppressing employment, business, and our liberties generally

this depression and the massive, record level of unemployment and job losses ... are mostly government-created or induced

[Mr. K]

The only reason they have not for the last 7 years is the incredible amount of spending (and debt)

[tiki]

The agriculture sector is tanking and the mines have gone to skeleton crews.

[oblomov]

We’ve been in and are in a depression. What’s happening now is a “secondary recession” as in 1937-38.

[faithhopecharity]

well, at least the 1938 federal govt was more honest than the bunch of traitors and crooks in there today

(they admitted to at least 19% unemployment in 1939, today they just make up lies to ‘cover up’ the 104 million adult Americans without jobs)

[Thibodeaux]

this is the Mokee dugway, a dangerous road off the Cedar Mesa. In the distance you see the precipitous 1100 foot drop to the floor below. that desert floor is the US economy till say July of 15. after the drop off in 2008, the economy has been flat as the desert floor

I use to say the desert pateau streached away as far as you could see. it now appears the plateau is once again gradually falling off.

however....... the economy has not been in depression for 6 years, it has been merely flat, a plateau

[faithhopecharity]

Great picture, thanks!

being down there ‘flat’ at the bottom of that huge abyss... which does seem to stretch as far as the eye can see....

is not a comfortable economic position for us to be in

no matter what words we use trying to describe it

[Tallguy]

We have been in a depression since 2007. We’ve been bumping along the bottom... up a little this year, a little less the next year and so forth. But the bottom line is little-to-no growth and low “labor participation”.

[central_va]

Does Acme Tool deliver out there?

[VTenigma]

Recession Indicators Flashing Red

---

since at least 2007

[Georgia Girl 2]

We are in the beginnings of a deflationary depression.

[faithhopecharity]

Beep Beep!