Trump Holds Lead in South Carolina; Cruz in Second as Bush Moves Up to Third In Contest

southernpoliticalreport.com ^ | Jan 17, 2016 | admin

[GonzoII]

Trump Holds Lead in South Carolina; Cruz in Second as Bush Moves Up to Third In Contest

by admin Jan 17, 2016 Top Story

A post-debate poll of likely voters in South Carolina's GOP presidential primary conducted by OpinionSavvy for the Morris News Service/InsiderAdvantage shows Donald Trump continuing to dominate the contest, leading his closest opponent, Ted Cruz, by some 14 points. Jeb Bush has moved into third place, just 4 points behind Cruz. The survey was conducted January 15th by both IVR phone and mobile devices. The poll has a margin of error of 3.7%. The survey also shows that South Carolinians believe Trump won the debate held in North Charleston by a wide margin. 37% of the respondents who watched the debate declared Trump the winner with Ted Cruz coming in second at 22%.

When asked who they would vote for if the primary were held today, likely voters responded:

Trump: 32%

Cruz: 18%

Bush: 13%

Rubio: 11%

Carson: 9%

Christie: 4%

Fiorina: 3%

Huckabee: 2%

Kasich: 2%

Paul: 2%

Santorum: 1%

Undecided: 3%

Analysis by InsiderAdvantage founder/Opinion Savvy analyst Matt Towery:

"Trump leads in the poll among respondents who describe themselves as 'very conservative' but by only six points over Cruz. But Trump's lead over Cruz widens among those who say they are 'somewhat conservative'– he receives 33% versus 15% for Cruz and Bush. Trump led among those who said they were moderate but with Bush and Rubio receiving solid second place percentages. Trump led among all age groups but does better with the youngest of voters (40%).

"The poll confirms that Donald Trump is the force to be reckoned with in South Carolina. He has led in our prior surveys and his lead expanded a bit after the debate. Cruz, as expected, is giving Trump his closest challenge– albeit a somewhat distant one at the moment.

"Most interesting was Jeb Bush's leap to third place in the South Carolina contest. It has been my belief that one "establishment" Republican will survive to take on Trump and Cruz in South Carolina. Bush's lead over Marco Rubio is tenuous but it is nevertheless a lead. It may be the first glimpse of some momentum for the Bush camp. South Carolina has shown its willingness to go for the more "establishment" type candidate in some contests (McCain over Huckabee in 2008) but in recent years has grown far more inclined to support the more "populist conservative" type such as Newt Gingrich in 2012.

"As for the debate, Trump scored big with viewers in South Carolina leading his closest opponent, Cruz, by 14 points. When asked who performed the worst, Bush took 'the prize' with 27% and John Kasich receiving a dubious second place 17% for worst performance."

[plewis1250]

This is utter nonsense.

Defeat the man on the ideological playing field if you must, not this birther garbage.

Of course, maybe you cannot... Maybe instead you have to rely on this nonsense to come up with a reason to vote for the baby killing supporter who is Donald J. Trump...

[KGeorge]

Love it!

[VTenigma]

These polls are so gamed it’s ridiculous.

[Ymani Cricket]

Yep. The establishment will egg on conservatives to form a circular firing squad and kill each other off again. It works for them every time. Trump and Cruz supporters will see each other as the enemy and destroy chances for the real enemy, the establishment, to be defeated. But we’re stupid like that.
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Yep

[Arthur Wildfire! March]

SOLUTION to CRUZ-BIRTHER CAGE FIGHT ...

AZ State Rep Calls For Constitutional Convention On Cruz Birth Issue
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3384579/posts

Further down I suggested a modest constitutional amendment [easier and, with rapid communications, also faster, with the speed of text-networking...]

Amend to have English-speaking parents with Canadian citizenship also help qualify natural born status. Why not? It’s not some radical Islamo-nut nation like Indonesia after all. Even Quebec is not so bad either.

Cruz should not turn too openly for such a process. It would make him look weak. But this is a good way to flush out who wants to use rules and process to disqualify him.

[dp0622]

yeah, people are making mocking comments and it’s WAY too early for that.

running victory laps already is foolhearty.

and it’s amazing that a man so liked a year ago is not thrown in with Bush.

frankly, its absurd.

cruz and trump both have flaws. but neither of them belongs in the same sentence with jeb.

a lot of people here talk about how crooked the system is, yet their smug belief that the race is all but over, might give jeb or rubio a hint of sunlight,

[hoosiermama]

The list of candidates on the republican ticket who could have their type of citizenship in question include: Cruz , Rubio, Jindall, Santorum , and even Trump if he wanted to be included in asking for a Declaritive Judgment from the SCOTUS. IMO the proper route would be for the RNC to file it in all of their and the parties behalf. Expect it this spring before convention

[xzins]

There was one campaign in the rrevolution, iirc, that was designed to bring part of Canada under US control. Maybe it was war of 1812. Had it succeeded Cruz would be unquestioned. But it does show Canada and US were seen as very compatible back then.

[xzins]

Company, form circle

Ready
Aim
Fire!

[grania]

Have you followed it? It isn't "birther garbage". There's nothing that ties Cruz's birth to the US except a mother who has, if this is verified, relinquished her allegiance to the US by voting in Canada while she lived there.

It's a real bad precedent that would further erode our identity and sovereignty in the long term, and turn Obama's should-have-been settled in court situation into a precedent that will never go away. Now's the time to reverse that trend, not solidify it.

[Mamzelle]

I don’t believe it. I wouldn’t put it past the treacherous SC GOP to lie.

[Greetings_Puny_Humans]

Des Moines Register was off by 10 points on Santorum, or so I heard.

[Arthur Wildfire! March]

Trump could crush Jeb Bush. Probably glad to see him on the rebound if this is true. Cruz is more of a challenge.

[Lib-Lickers 2]

Trump’s biggest lead is in NH,, I don’t know where you come up with Christi

[plewis1250]

His mother was born in Deleware. Period.
He was born to an American citizen living abroad. Period.
He is an American citizen. Period.

Why even waste time on this???

Trump was losing so he flipped his position on the matter to what he feels he connects most with: birther nonsense.

[Greetings_Puny_Humans]

None of that makes a difference. Natural born status is not transferred through the maternal line by any definition of Natural Born Citizen around at the time of the founding fathers.

[paul544]

Wonder if Obama had morons questioning his citizenship or if this is unique to jackasses on the right.

[grania]

The morons that didn't question Obama's citizenship are establishment Republicans who instead used the issue to insult Constitutional Conservatives. Do you really think the dems wouldn't pursue the issue to keep Cruz out of office? Trump by bringing it up saved us from the potential of a constitutional crisis.

FWIW, Cruz's situation is much further removed from "natural born citizenship" than Obama's.

[plewis1250]

Give me a break.

Natural born citizen is not defined by the US Constitution. So instead, we rely on the US code and various acts (such as the Naturalization Act of 1790) to determine intent.

US Code of course stipulates it is passed through the mother, as I’m pretty sure most sensable people would support. Heck, if a woman can vote, maybe citizenship can pass through her as well...

[Democratic-Republican]

His mother was born in Deleware. Period.
He was born to an American citizen living abroad. Period.
He is an American citizen. Period.

You got that much right. Well, if you meant a maximum one half American citizen ( does that other one half escape your attention somehow? )

Now riddle me this batman, [1] Exactly what offices does the Constitution NOT allow a mere American citizen ( full, half, whatever ) in its requirement?

Why even waste time on this???

Well, see above. That is exactly why the issue is wasting our time.

Secondary riddle. [2] Name any elected President with a foreign parent?

Hopefully you can respond in an unambiguous manner like ...
[1]
[2]