Posted on 01/11/2016 1:02:30 PM PST by presidio9
About 20 percent of likely Democratic voters say they would buck the party and vote for Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump in a general election, according to a new poll.
The willingness of some Democrats to change sides could be a major problem for Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton this fall.
The new figures were released by Mercury Analytics, a research company with clients that include MSNBC and Fox News, as the result of an online poll and dial-test of Trump's first campaign ad.
A smaller number of Republicans say they’d vote for Clinton - about 14 percent.
Ron Howard, the company's CEO and a Democrat, said he expected Trump’s first campaign ad to have "little impact - or in fact negative impact" on Democrats and independents. But the ad actually resonated with Democrats more than he expected.
About one-quarter of Democrats said they "agree completely" that the ad raises good points, with another 19 percent agreeing at least "somewhat."
"The challenge to Hillary, if Trump is the nominee and pivots to the center in the general election as a problem-solving, independent-minded, successful 'get it done' businessman is that Democrats will no longer be able to count on his personality and outrageous sound bites to disqualify him in the voters' minds," Howard said, according to U.S. News & World Report.
The company surveyed about 916 likely voters this week. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent.
Try reading post #71 in which you BUTTED into a post to someone else. You started engaging me, but since you couldn’t hold your own because you and I both know Trump is a fraud, you resorted to insults.
No wonder you’re one of those fools supporting Trump. Go back to your reality tv show now like a good little boy...
All right I’ll concede. You definitely know far more about upstate NY than this female Texas Hick. All that is known - is the fact it’s never over until the fat lady sings.
People are climbing aboard the Trump train that have never traveled by rail before. There are many factors which seem to be oblivious to many. I’ll just sit back and watch the entertainment forthcoming, trusting your good judgement when the outcome is revealed. Thank you for your post, seriously. The Pollyanna balloon has been deflated.
You really are neuron-deficient.
YOU posted an insult to me first. #74.
I only insulted you AFTER (that means posts greater than 74). You complain I do nothing but insult you, yet you insult Trump supporters in every post.
You need a pair, not me.
Besides, what sex do you really think a screen name CottonBall is?
To understand how difficult polling can be, consider what happened when the exit poll in 2000 that claimed that Al Gore would beat Bush. I knew the poll was a push poll immediately, its purpose was to influence the election. I know this because they called the race over before noon. It is well known that conservatives tend to vote later in the he day than liberals. Thus any accurate exit poll must be done all day. Also the polling company hired young college men, many of them were football players and frat boys. Guess who the surveyed, big surprise mostly young women. Younger women tend to be more liberal then married with children. Also you might want to lie to a big football player asking 'Did you vote for Gore?' if you felt intimated. In the past I hired a bunch of grandmother's to do my polling. The old ladies would talk to anyone, and not many people would lie to a nice old lady. Also the old grandmas were easy to train and reliable in following instructions. The bad news is that even if you are careful in getting a good random sample your poll could be biased because of how the survey is worded. Polling is as much of an art as well as a science. There is good money to be made in polling, but it is a lot of work to do it right.
“He said he did not ‘intend’...”
So now you can read Cruz’s mind and know why he said “intends”?? Wow, another Trump clairvoyant.
Cruz and nobody else ever stated that Cruz would need to be forced to sign any bill. Cruz has stated for 4 years that he wants to deport illegals, build a wall, etc., but Trumpets can’t apparently read so they chose to ignore the Cruz’s old policy papers from 4+ years ago that said the same thing that Trump is saying today. Anti-illegal immigration is the main reason why Cruz won in TX. The word “intends” is a non-issue and making it an issue shows the desperation of Trumpets.
Again, why is Trump against high U.S. wages??? He must be if wording matters so much. That would make him anti-capitalist then wouldn’t it...
Of course, you have to resort to more name calling because you can’t defend Trump’s policies so you have to lie about Cruz’s. Do you work for Obama??
Geez, this is ridiculous.
Yes, I posted to you in #71. I was not in the least insulting however. But your reply in 74 was.
You can’t have a ‘private’ conversation on a public forum!
If you don’t want replies, take it to freepmail!
You’re too absurd. I’m done and have a good evening.
“Geez, this is ridiculous.”
Yes, your comments are getting ridiculous. I said nothing about a being concerned about posting on a public forum, but you also can’t accuse me of insulting you when I was not even posting to you. You have a habit of trying to twist words to suit your agenda, don’ you?
Do you take any comments against Trump or Trump supporters personally? Are you that thin skinned?? Maybe you should grow up and stop acting like a whiney Trump!
The ‘intend’ comment was significant because it came months after he refused to say anything about immigration. Then he condescendingly said Americans don’t want to have that conversation. He was trying to avoid taking a stance, probably because of his donors.
Then he is forced to make a statement, and gave a weasely one.
You won’t get it, but the context is what matters.
My interest isn’t so much national politics. Frankly, its a means to an end at best. My passion is RKBA.
The truth is that in spite of our idiot governor, we’re winning on the gun front. We’re winning hearts and minds. People who 5 years ago wouldn’t touch a gun are getting armed. You can’t go to a range on a weekend and not wait in line. Gun dealers are harried but happy. Open carry is no longer rare to see. People are getting it.
We. Are. Winning.
“The ‘intend’ comment was significant...”
So would you prefer that he lie like Trump and state that he “will” do it even though Congress and the courts could stop him?? At least he is honest. Trump claims he will build the wall and make the Mexicans pay for it. That is nothing but lies because he would not be able to do anything without congressional and court support and even then, Trump would have NO authority to make Mexico to do anything. What Trump said is a LIE, but dumb supporters will eat it up because it sounds good!
Besides, you fail to address the fact that Trump wants to use the government to suppress wages because he believes U.S. wages are too high. The fact that Trump failed to use the word “minimum” during two different answers is significant and shows Trump to be anti-free market.
Every four years I hear them talk about how they are going to make an effort to swing Texas blue. They waste a lot of time talking about it, the way I waste a lot of time wondering what it would take to date a supermodel.
There are a few things that are guaranteed in life other than death and taxes. Two of them are these:
Republicans will win Texas, and Democrats will win New York and Massachusetts.
And let me say one more thing: I understand the frustration that people have with the GOP establishment, and how that can lead to the projection that encourages people to believe that Donald Trump is the answer. If he wins the nomination, I will happily vote for him. But, having some personal experience with the man (I have known him for over 20 years and have been alone with him and less than five people for hours at a time on several occasions), and having watched him for thirty years in the New York press, my expectation is that conservatives will be disappointed by a lot of things that he does as president.
So, are there better options? I'm not sure that there are. But I just hope you're aware that he may not be everything you want him to be.
Who has suggested a plausible method of getting other countries to take trade deals that benefit us more than them? What did they say?
I'm not arguing with you here. I'm just wondering if you may have heard something that I didn't.
Feeerget it.
BTW, this is what I said in post #74 “but only dim people actually believe that”
I never said Trump supporters were dim or that you were dim or even that anyone supporting Trump was dim. I only said dim people believe Trump’s lies. And remember, words to matter to Trumpets.
If it struck a chord that you happen to be dim or one of those dim people then maybe you should look in the mirror and see why you feel so low about yourself or why you blindly believe Trump’s lies. Either way, that is on you!
What I object to is people pointing to their own experiences and then superimposing them onto national voting trends. This has gotten us into trouble in the past. We live in a very diverse nation.
But if you want to report as a man on the ground in Virginia, then I think what you have to say is highly relevant. Particularly so because in the upcoming election as Virginia goes so may go the nation.
Sorry, I can't forget it.
If you've heard a realistic way of getting other countries to negotiate trade deals that hurt them and help us, I'd like to hear it. If you've heard of a candidate who can accomplish this, I'd like to know who he is. Or her.
The truth is, I don't think you have. You may have heard of a guy who says things like "I will force China (or Mexico, or whoever) to do something or else we won't trade with them." But then what? Have you examined the effect that such action would have on our own economy in the short and long term? Or do you just like the way it sounds when a presidential candidate talks tough? That I can understand, by the way.
Roll another spliff, and then take a nap - b/c you’re delusional.
Here are some famous quotes from Ronald Reagan using the word “intends”. I guess by your logic, you would say Reagan was a liar and not serious about anything that he said either, right? Maybe Trumpets should just use a dictionary and look up the word “intends”.
“My central arms control objective has been to reduce substantially, and ultimately to eliminate, nuclear weapons and rid the world of the nuclear threat. The prevention of the spread of nuclear explosives to additional countries is an indispensable part of our efforts to meet this objective. I intend to continue my pursuit of this goal with untiring determination and a profound sense of personal commitment.â€
Ronald Reagan, March 25, 1988 Message to Congress on NPT
“We are a nation under God, and I believe God intended for us to be free. It would be fitting and good, I think, if on each Inaugural Day in future years it should be declared a day of prayer.” Inaugural Address, January 20, 1981
“Thomas Jefferson once said, ‘We should never judge a president by his age, only by his works.’ And ever since he told me that I stopped worrying. Just to show you how youthful I am, I intend to campaign in all 13 states,” Reagan once quipped
“We intend to keep the peace - we will also keep our freedom.” Ronald Reagan
“Well, the Canal Zone is not a colonial possession. It is not a long-term lease. It is sovereign United States Territory every bit the same as Alaska and all the states that were carved from the Louisiana Purchase. We should end those negotiations and tell the General: We bought it, we paid for it, we built it, and we intend to keep it.”
To Restore America, Ronald Reagan’s Campaign Address,
March 31, 1976
“There are several traditionally blue states that a guy like Trump might carry. New York is highly doubtful -especially given the fact that Clinton is also a resident and a former Senator.
Hillary Clinton is a “carpet bagger.” New Yorker’s know this, and, doubtless, more than a few resent her for it.
All the speculation on her ability to hold Democrats presumes that she will not be indicted - which is seeming LESS likely with each new revelation. How many working class Democrats do you suppose are far left enough to vote for Bernie Sanders?
I do not see that outcome happening with any certainty.
Here in SW Nebraska where I live, most, if not all the Democrats - whom I personally know and speak with regularly - would slit their wrists before they voted for either Hillary or Sanders ... They consider both candidates to be full-on psychopaths. Of course, most Democrats in this area tend towards being moderate to conservative. In the 10 years I have lived here, I have met only one Democrat that was close to a leftist in his politics - and even he thinks Hillary is a raving nutcase.
To massive trade imbalances, manipulative currency devaluation, wage stagnation, and millions of lost American jobs mean anything to you? Free Trade? No, more like Fraudulent Trade.
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