Posted on 01/11/2016 7:11:52 AM PST by Jane Long
The Iowa Republican Caucuses may come down to a photo finish. Ted Cruz and Donald Trump are tied with 27% of the vote each.
Apart from the 27 percenters, Marco Rubio takes 3rd place with 15%, with Ben Carson behind him at 9%.
The rest of the field holds 18% of the support, with another 3% undecided. Unlike the Democratic Caucuses in Iowa, once you commit to a candidate, your vote is finalized. There is no support threshold, meaning the top candidates cannot benefit from lower tier candidates not getting enough traction.
Slightly frustrating efforts to read into how this will affect the delegate count is the fact that the voting percentages may not reflect the allocation percentages. Doing well in Iowa is important to give campaigns momentum as they move into the other 3 February voting states, and then finally into Super Tuesday, March 1st. A poor showing in Iowa, combined with either low poll numbers in New Hampshire, or another poor showing in their 2nd in the nation primary, can lead some of the lower tier candidates to drop out. As candidates drop out, their support has to go somewhere, and even just a few extra percentage points can help capture additional delegates, especially in winner-take-all states.
As it stands, the top 5 right now will probably stick it out until at least March 1st. If this is still a 7+ person race during the second week of March, I would be surprised. Registering low single digit support in the early states, and especially on Super Tuesday, basically guarantees a candidate's donors will dry up quickly.
We will release one more Iowa poll on January 31st.
Is Working-Class code from the pollsters meaning independent voters? Are they are afraid to say the I word and use Working-Class as a code not to say Independent Voters?
Thanks for the ping.
Good possibility.
With 3 likely justices to come in the next four years... Cruz is the only candidate that will reliably clean out the court.
Like he did when he championed Roberts, his friend, mentor and co worker!
Do you mean more Supremes like Roberts, an old friend and mentor of Cruz?
The Texas Tribune
Cruz, Justice Roberts Have History
by Aman Batheja July 9, 2012 5Comments
Within two hours of the U.S. Supreme Court releasing its opinion on the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act last month, former Texas Solicitor General Ted Cruz spoke out about the decision.
Cruz, a Republican competing against Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst in a July 31 primary runoff for an open U.S. Senate seat, called the decision âshamefulâ and described it as a âsad day for the court.â He accused the courtâs justices of being motivated by politics rather than upholding the U.S. Constitution.
It was a harsh assessment considering that Chief Justice John Roberts, a man whom Cruz has described as a mentor and friend, played a pivotal role in the law being upheld.
Roberts has drawn scorn from conservatives for his decision to side with the courtâs more liberal wing and uphold the controversial lawâs individual mandate as a tax. Subsequent reports have suggested that Roberts may have been influenced by issues other than the constitutionality of the law in making his decision.
When asked last week about his thoughts on Roberts’ role in the decision, Cruz said, âIt was heartbreaking and it was shocking.â
Both Cruz and Roberts clerked for Chief Justice William Rehnquist early in their careers, Roberts from 1980 to 1981, Cruz in the mid-1990s.
After Election Day in 2000, Cruz was a lawyer working on the legal battle over the Florida recount for the Bush/Cheney presidential campaign. Cruz told the Miami Herald that Roberts’ name was the first that came to mind when he was asked to help find lawyers to work on the litigation. Roberts reportedly helped with legal briefs and participated in a mock hearing to prepare Bushâs legal team.
âWe needed the very best lawyers in the country, and I called John and asked him to help,â Cruz later wrote in the National Review. âWithin hours, he was on a plane to Florida.â
When President George W. Bush nominated Roberts to the U.S. Supreme Court in 2005, Cruz was an outspoken advocate for his confirmation, calling him âbrilliantâ and a âlawyerâs lawyer.”
âAs an individual, John Roberts is undoubtedly a principled conservative, as is the president who appointed him,â Cruz wrote. âHe clerked for Chief Justice Rehnquist, worked in the Reagan White House, and served as the principal deputy solicitor general in President George H.W. Bushâs Justice Department.
âBut, as a jurist, Judge Robertsâs approach will be that of his entire career: carefully, faithfully applying the Constitution and legal precedent.â
Since the ruling, Cruz has kept his criticisms mostly focused on the court as a whole.
Dewhurst, though, has not shied from singling out Roberts.
âWhen Supreme Court Justice John Roberts sold constitutional conservatives down the river and held up the worst parts of the disaster called Obamacare, we knew we were in for a problem,” Dewhurst said at a press conference Friday at The Health Museum in Houston.
Both Dewhurst and Cruz are trying to convince Republican primary voters that they are best suited to lead the fight in Congress to repeal the federal health care law. The Supreme Court decision makes the issue an even more important one in their runoff, both said.
“In my first day in the United States Senate, Iâm going to lead the effort to repeal Obamacare, every single word of it, and replace it with permissive free-market reforms,” Dewhurst said Friday.
Cruz likewise vowed to work to overturn the law.
“Iâll throw my body in front of a train to stop anything short of its complete and total repeal,” Cruz said at a recent event in Willis.
http://www.texastribune.org/2012/07/09/cruz-and-roberts-go-way-back/
Middle America has seen the politicians coming out of Texas. Not again. No thanks.
“Trump wins 50 and younger. Cruz wins older.”
Well, I’m 75 and my wife is 73, we’re both all in for Trump, and so are all of our friends. Cruz’ financial support is problematic for me. Both he and The Cabana Boy are Hispanics uber alles. So is Boosh but he doesn’t matter at this juncture.
It’s hard to overstate the American love of celebrity. Trump is a big name celebrity, has 99% name recognition, and massive wealth. I don’t like the guy, don’t think he has any genuine conservative principles, but I concede he’s probably the most electable of the Republican candidates. His celebrity is helping him tap into a part of the electorate that would otherwise never consider voting Republican. I don’t envy your choice: principle versus electability. Democrats always choose electability as they have no principles - only a lust for power.
Trumps principles aren’t bad, his defining principle is America first. Wall, borders, culture, fair trade. Not bad.
Trump’s a low life as far as I am concerned. His birther rant on Cruz will result in me now voting for the most conservative 3rd party candidate come November.
Give me a break.
You Trump folks sound like a broke record.
“TPA!!! H1b!!!!”
One of which your wonder boy USES in his companies, the other is a flat out lie about Cruz.
How about on abortion? How about on gay marriage? Small government? 2nd amendment rights? Universal healthcare? Property rights?
Who has a long record of defending conservative principles and ideals?? Who has a long record of funding liberals and RATs for political gain?
Who is more conservative, Cruz or the Chump?
>>That is nothing but an empty boast.<<
So what? Fits into this thread perfectly.
Good for him. He can fill the lower level of an arena that seats 20,000...
In the most Republican state in the Union....
If you think the Chump is going to carry Texas over Crus, you’re out of your mind...
Chump will have to take political donations in the general if he wins...
He’ll be dirtier than dingy Harry when it’s all said and done...
Of course, a grassroots campaign like Cruz’s would have much less reliance on big money in the general...
Sounds like your hung up on the celebrity thing. Maybe you can find yet another lawyer turned politician type to vote for. Some people enjoying being abused.
I call it Battered Voter Syndrome or BVS. Good luck.
“Chump will have to take political donations in the general if he wins...
Heâll be dirtier than dingy Harry when itâs all said and done...”
Your medications are affecting your mental accuity! Are you a RAT troll? You can always vote for Sanders over in the RAT primary.
I don’t think you’ll have to go 3rd party. Trump’s ceiling is 30-35%. Once the race gets down to 2 or 3 candidates, that will become obvious.
Trump’s problem is two-fold: his history of support for liberal causes, and his lack of policy depth.
Both of these make it impossible for many conservatives to vote for him, as will become obvious when the race gets down to, say, Trump, Cruz, and Rubio, as I think it will.
By then it will be clear that Trump voters’ second choice is either Rubio or Cruz, and that Cruz and Rubio voters’ second choice is the other one, Rubio or Cruz.
Put another way, Trump voters will support other conservatives whereas many conservatives will never support Trump, but will go looking for another alternative or stay home. That’s the math of the matter, and if the GOP voters as a whole consider the math, they’ll realize that Trump will lose to Hillary (or Sanders), as most polling implies, but that either Cruz or Rubio will beat her (and hopefully Sanders.)
The hitch in this is that a certain percentage of Trump supporters have as their second choice either Sanders or Hillary. But I think that reflects their concern about where Obama has taken the country. They’re former Democrats who are attracted to Trump, but it shouldn’t take much for either Cruz or Rubio to draw them in if either one is nominated. They’re unhappy with the way things are going, and know Trump, but don’t yet know much of Cruz or Rubio.
I was going to reply to this thread until I read your post.
So now my reply is a rousing concurrence.
You have said exactly what my take is.
Yeah... I’m a RAT troll...
Been here for 12+ years, been to multiple FReeps across the country, but I was a RAT the entire time because I feel Chump is a terrible candidate who is anything but conservative...
Okay....
Trump leading in Iowa in latest Quinnipac poll...
Ted Cruz Chases Trump’s Lead In New Iowa Poll
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/polltracker/quinnipiac-poll-iowa-january
Please ping!
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