Posted on 01/11/2016 7:11:52 AM PST by Jane Long
The Iowa Republican Caucuses may come down to a photo finish. Ted Cruz and Donald Trump are tied with 27% of the vote each.
Apart from the 27 percenters, Marco Rubio takes 3rd place with 15%, with Ben Carson behind him at 9%.
The rest of the field holds 18% of the support, with another 3% undecided. Unlike the Democratic Caucuses in Iowa, once you commit to a candidate, your vote is finalized. There is no support threshold, meaning the top candidates cannot benefit from lower tier candidates not getting enough traction.
Slightly frustrating efforts to read into how this will affect the delegate count is the fact that the voting percentages may not reflect the allocation percentages. Doing well in Iowa is important to give campaigns momentum as they move into the other 3 February voting states, and then finally into Super Tuesday, March 1st. A poor showing in Iowa, combined with either low poll numbers in New Hampshire, or another poor showing in their 2nd in the nation primary, can lead some of the lower tier candidates to drop out. As candidates drop out, their support has to go somewhere, and even just a few extra percentage points can help capture additional delegates, especially in winner-take-all states.
As it stands, the top 5 right now will probably stick it out until at least March 1st. If this is still a 7+ person race during the second week of March, I would be surprised. Registering low single digit support in the early states, and especially on Super Tuesday, basically guarantees a candidate's donors will dry up quickly.
We will release one more Iowa poll on January 31st.
What matters in Iowa is not who is more popular.
What matters in Iowa is who has more supporters willing to show up and be a caucus member.
It’s hard to predict before the caucus.
Oh my. What will the Cruzers say today??
Teddy, the polite “Haahhvud†scholar (and supporter of Corker’s Iran nukes) simply lacks the street dog fighter instincts of Trump.
Add in Teddy Boy’s sugar daddy, Robert Mercer and his open borders support, Teddy Boy would be a disaster...even if he becomes POTUS>
Cruz has his Obama enabling TPA campaign hanging around his neck. He’s DOA in Ohio against “Anti” TPA Hildabeast. No Ohio for GOP = hello Madame President.
Maybe they get exactly the same number of caucus votes.....?
Amazingly, Trump is getting half of the African-American vote with Carson getting the other half. He also gets half of the Asian vote and half of the Native American vote. Rubio and Cruz split on the Hispanic vote 33-33, but Trump still gets 22% of that.
Trump wins 50 and younger. Cruz wins older.
Cruz and Trump appeal across the income spectrum.
The most ominous news in this is twofold:
1. Christie, Fiorina, and Kasich have very few numbers, many categories with ZERO.
2. The Carson split of African Americans with Trump. I interpret it to mean that African Americans think Carson’s on his way out of the race.
Uh oh.......
Isn’t Iowa the one state Cruz is suppose to win??
Nice observation.
Looks to me like Cruz cooked his own goose, bragging about beating The Donald....and using stupid Fonzie videos to be the Iowa front-runner.
Cruz needs to tone down his strategy......if he damages the Trump brand in Iowa, Cruz will be persona non grata around the globe.
How many Blacks are going to vote in the Iowa GOP caucus? My bet is you can just about count them on your fingers.
So it aint a sure thing.
Yep, in this poll, 2 Black people voted for Trump, and 2 voted for Carson.
Trump has nothing to lose by losing Iowa. If he wins it, the race is over, and Cruz will be recognized by everybody as a dud. Competition ends. Trump sweeps all the other states. If he loses it, Trump still sweeps all the other states, but the Cruz-bots on this forum will be insulting Trump supporters until the day of the NH primary, and will probably maintain home for South Carolina, which Trump will also win anyway.
GO TRUMP!!!!...YAY!!!!!!
From the NBC Marist poll: “Yet among the larger universe of potential Iowa caucus-goers, Trump actually leads Cruz by two points, 26 percent to 24 percent, suggesting that a larger turnout could benefit Trump in the state”.
Who is whistlin again?
This is nonsense...
Take your GOPe garbage elsewhere...
Jane post this on rally thread. So we can go REALLY WILD!
I think back then it was a case of mainstream media trying to engineer a nominee that Carter could beat and the same thing is probably going on today.
Trump is DOA in Texas... We don’t take kindly to progressive liberals from New York in these parts...
Wishful thinking on your part...
Cruz has alot more invested in Iowa than Trump. If he doesn’t win it it not going to look good for him. Given Iowa’s record of picking the eventual candidate you might want to lose.
Last I saw Trump was leading Texas too, but, either way, the race is always over before it gets here to Texas anyway.
By the way, I'm a native born Texan, unlike the Canuckstinian Ted Cruz.
People do not want a Canadian maniac in the White House.
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