Posted on 01/10/2016 8:15:08 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
Among the country's better pundits, it's an annual tradition to break out the figurative cat-'o'-nine-tails and indulge in a little ceremonial self-flagellation. For readers, there's sometimes little more satisfying than watching prognosticators and opinion-mongers publicly confess their sins of analysis. So this year, some of the braver ones have copped to underestimating Donald Trump - not just as a media magnet, but as a bona fide political force in the race for the Republican nomination.
You won't be getting that from me. And Ted Cruz is the reason why.
We'll get to why in a moment. First, as a separate matter, it seemed fine for me to abstain from belittling Trump in 2015. After all, the populist vein he tapped into was hiding in plain sight - but, even more important, it struck me as clear that Trump lacked the blanket populist appeal necessary to elbow his way to the nomination.
On the one hand, ironically, Trump's greatest strength was poised to become a massive weakness when the primaries began. As The Upshot's Nate Cohn noted at the New York Times, Trump's "very best voters are self-identified Republicans who nonetheless are registered as Democrats. It's a coalition that's concentrated in the South, Appalachia and the industrial North, according to data provided to The Upshot by Civis Analytics, a Democratic data firm." In a closed primary, that's awful news....
(Excerpt) Read more at ocregister.com ...
Reuter’s Polling. If this were true, Trump would not be polling nationally at ~40% and climbing while Ted Cruz is ~16-18%.
Can’t and won’t argue with this assessment of the Republican candidates.
Cruz is the most capable trustworthy conservative candidate.
When is the national primary?
When is the national primary?
Does Trump have a GOTV effort? Or is his entire GOTV plan based on campaign appearances?
No argument from me. I agree with the article.
“I thought this article would be about an Dreamer family being called up at a restaurant.”
If Cruz goes soft on rooting out bad Muslim apples - whatever it takes - then people who wanted Cruz but we're willing to hold there nose and vote for Trump in the general. ..will hold there nose and vote for Trump in the primaries.
It all comes down to how serious one assesses the Islamic threat to be.
If rooting out and deporting illegals renders a president or presidential candidate a dictator, then the General who commanded allied forces on D Day was a dictator. The people who think Islam is so feeble a threat as to be willing to spew that rhetoric aren't helping Cruz at all, and the damage they are doing to Cruz (which Cruz himself adds to by not correcting them) will intensify as the Muslim invasion attempt in Europe accelerates.
And I point this out as someone who (if you go back and examine my posting history) has condemned Trump for his exploitation of the abominable Kelo Versus New London decision for years.
Besides IA, CA and maybe OK, how many other states is Cruz leading in? The Reuters poll shows that Trump has significant support nationally. While there is no national primary, to discount this would be a mistake. He also leads in multiple state polls.
He has been holding caucus and convention trainings in big primary states.
For the still relatively green senator, it’s a rise to supremacy with the swiftness and sureness to rival that of another rookie who found himself sweeping into the White House: Barack Obama. Party on, Ted.
James Poulos is a genius, and an Oracle.
There’re a whole lotta ways in which he’s wrong, so I don’t want to spend the time arguing it. You posted the article. What do you think is right about it?
That Cruz will ultimately be the nominee, for one. Neither Bush nor Rubio have much more chance than you or I.
And, per the author’s last line, you think he’s going to get Obama-level support that will sweep him into the White House?
Very possible. He is now #1 amongst the Republican candidates in favorability. Have you seen that?
Very possible. He is now #1 amongst the Republican candidates in favorability. Have you seen that?
“They may be calling, ‘Ted, party of ‘16”
That’s how many show up for Ted’s rallies.
Then I agree with him that neither Bush nor Rubio will get the nomination. Why does he/you think Cruz will win the primaries?
And I agree with you that neither you nor I will get the nomination either.
Oh, you made a funny! Then explain his leading the polls in Iowa and California? He’s a candidate, not a rock band.
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