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Still don’t think Donald Trump can win? This chart should convince you
The Washington Post ^ | 1/9/2016 | Chris Cillizza

Posted on 01/09/2016 5:24:06 PM PST by BlackFemaleArmyColonel

When people find out I am a political reporter, they usually have only one question for me: "Donald Trump can't really win this thing, can he?" My answer is always the same these days: Absolutely he can.

The reason is simple: Trump is the national front-runner, yes, but he is also ahead in a two key early states -- New Hampshire and South Carolina -- and a strong second in Iowa, the state that kicks the whole presidential process off on Feb. 1.

Could he totally collapse from that position? Sure. As we know from recent history, voters in Iowa and New Hampshire don't start paying all that close attention to the race until about 30 days or so out from the actual vote -- meaning that polling on what the race looks like tends to be an inexact science.

But the fact that Trump is ahead nationally and that he is running first or second in Iowa and New Hampshire is meaningful, argues Sam Wang over at the Princeton Election Consortium.

Wang's argument is that based on recent electoral history and where Trump stands in polling today, the real estate billionaire actually has a very good chance at being the Republican nominee. Look at where the past nominees in each party were at this time in national, Iowa and New Hampshire polling:

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Iowa; US: New Hampshire; US: New York; US: South Carolina
KEYWORDS: 2016election; bfac; democrat; election2016; gopprimaries; iowa; newhampshire; newyork; nomination; southcarolina; trump; trump2016; win
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To: MCF

Cool.

So when Trump wells a GROPe congress and senate to do something, will THEY oppose him?

After all, they REFUSED to oppose Obola.


41 posted on 01/09/2016 6:25:39 PM PST by Robert A Cook PE (I can only donate monthly, but socialists' ABBCNNBCBS continue to lie every day!)
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To: BlackFemaleArmyCaptain

Trump still holds wife’s and my vote, and a lot of people I’ve been talking and listening to.

Saw his speech earlier today on CSPAN, and post-event callers were backing him about 7 or 8 to 1. Seems indicative of victory to me.


42 posted on 01/09/2016 6:31:04 PM PST by onedoug
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To: DoughtyOne

What’s with the checkerboard and what does it mean.


43 posted on 01/09/2016 6:34:08 PM PST by Ciexyz
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To: BlackFemaleArmyCaptain

Plus, instead of coasting, he turning it up a notch, and not backing down. He’s working very hard, more so than anyone. His coverage also is number one, and Cruz is flat footed.


44 posted on 01/09/2016 6:54:38 PM PST by nikos1121 ("Peace will come when the Arabs will love their children more than they hate us."-- Golda Meir)
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To: American Constitutionalist

“Most of Trump’s support are Democrats, Rush Limbaugh confirmed what we have been saying for months last week. A lot of them are only seeing Trump because of his celebrity, and won’t actually vote for him.”

Give it up, Rubio doesn’t have a chance.


45 posted on 01/09/2016 7:02:06 PM PST by BobL (Who cares? He's going to build a wall and stop this invasion.)
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To: mkjessup

Trump doesn’t know a damn thing about the US Constitution and he doesn’t care...that is why he has no problem abusing eminent domain. All trump has put forth is rhetoric and you suckers lap it up like Pavlov’s dog.


46 posted on 01/09/2016 7:03:18 PM PST by Ajnin (Wolves don't lose sleep over the opinion of sheep.)
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To: dr_lew

How much money amd effort has has Trump put into defending conservative values prior to his decision to run for president? We don’t know. What we do know is that he has been on both sides of nearly every political issue, donated to Democrat Politicians and he is friends with Clitnons.


47 posted on 01/09/2016 7:09:43 PM PST by Ajnin (Wolves don't lose sleep over the opinion of sheep.)
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To: BigEdLB

I think I just called him a dictator on this very thread..lol


48 posted on 01/09/2016 7:12:53 PM PST by Ajnin (Wolves don't lose sleep over the opinion of sheep.)
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To: Fhios

Lol


49 posted on 01/09/2016 7:13:21 PM PST by Ajnin (Wolves don't lose sleep over the opinion of sheep.)
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To: Ajnin

“that is why he has no problem abusing eminent domain. “

When and where was Trump “abusing eminent domain”? Give one specific example where he abused eminent domain to acquire property. I’ll make it even easier, give one example where Trump used eminent domain to acquire property.


50 posted on 01/09/2016 7:15:33 PM PST by dynoman (Objectivity is the essence of intelligence. - Marylin vos Savant)
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To: Amntn

It comes from the fact that Trump has demonstrated that he is a Constitutional illiterate. Of course he doesn’t care because he wants to do things the way they he thinks they should be done regardless of what the Constitution says. This is why he is still an advocate of stealing people’s property by perverting eminent domain.


51 posted on 01/09/2016 7:18:17 PM PST by Ajnin (Wolves don't lose sleep over the opinion of sheep.)
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To: ripnbang

LOL Is that where that happened? Not to be snarky, but Trump doesn’t have to put 3 young women out front to try & get people to come inside. Not that it seemed to be working very well.


52 posted on 01/09/2016 7:21:51 PM PST by KGeorge (I will miss you forever, Miss Mu. 7/1/2006- 11/16/2015)
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To: dynoman

He took Vera Coking’s property in 1994.


53 posted on 01/09/2016 7:25:27 PM PST by Ajnin (Wolves don't lose sleep over the opinion of sheep.)
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To: Ajnin

He did not. That is a lie.


54 posted on 01/09/2016 7:30:12 PM PST by dynoman (Objectivity is the essence of intelligence. - Marylin vos Savant)
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To: dynoman

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2015/10/18/trump_im_only_for_eminent_domain_when_its_for_creating_jobs.html

Trump in his own words advocating the stealing of private property throughthe abuse of eminent domain.


55 posted on 01/09/2016 7:31:37 PM PST by Ajnin (Wolves don't lose sleep over the opinion of sheep.)
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To: Ajnin
"Just what we need, a totalitarian..."

We already have one.

Unlike the fascist in the White House, Trump respects the Constitution, the rule of law and the checks and balances of the three branches of government.

Obama has thrown all this into the trash can, we all know it...and so does Trump.

Leni

56 posted on 01/09/2016 7:34:57 PM PST by MinuteGal ("We will take things away from you on behalf of the common good"...Karl Marx...oops, Hillary Clinton)
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To: Ajnin

This is what you said;

‎1‎/‎9‎/‎2016‎ ‎9‎:‎25‎:‎27‎ ‎PM · 53 of 56
Ajnin to dynoman

He took Vera Coking’s property in 1994.

That is a lie. Do you have even one example of Trump actually acquiring property through the abuse of eminent domain like you asserted? If not it might be time for you to shut up.


57 posted on 01/09/2016 7:40:24 PM PST by dynoman (Objectivity is the essence of intelligence. - Marylin vos Savant)
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To: arthurus

“What does Dick Morris have to say on this?”

Is he still alive? The last time I saw him his face looked like a basketball. So is it cortisone or too much borscht?


58 posted on 01/09/2016 9:10:08 PM PST by vette6387
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To: dynoman

No it’s true


59 posted on 01/09/2016 9:32:48 PM PST by Ajnin (Wolves don't lose sleep over the opinion of sheep.)
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To: dynoman

Trump is a Constitutional illiterate. He has demostrated quite clearly that he can not articulate a single conservative principal. Beyond accusing his opponents of being losers and stupid and suckering people with platitudes he has said nothing and done nothing of any substance.


60 posted on 01/09/2016 9:40:03 PM PST by Ajnin (Wolves don't lose sleep over the opinion of sheep.)
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