Posted on 01/05/2016 5:32:41 AM PST by jimbo123
More than half of Donald Trump's supporters say they are strongly committed to voting for him, according to the results of the latest NBC News/SurveyMonkey online tracking poll released Tuesday, the first national poll of 2016.
Overall, the Manhattan mogul commanded the support of 35 percent of the Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters who were surveyed over the past week, while Texas Sen. Ted Cruz came in second place with 18 percent support.
Florida Sen. Marco Rubio earned 13 percent, followed by 9 percent for Ben Carson, 6 percent for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, 4 percent for New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and 3 percent for Carly Fiorina, according to the full results shared first on MSNBC's "Morning Joe."
(Excerpt) Read more at politico.com ...
The Republican party died when it nominated Nixon. The country has been losing ever since. Get over it.
To actually change this place which used to be the United States of America back to what it once was and be able to move into a sane political future, will take more than Trump - if he is actually what and who you think he is (that has not worked out for the past 50 years, but, hey, there is always a first time).
When the Democrats get done with their attacks on local election regulations and laws and with their massive voter fraud campaigns (which never happens according to the media or only by Republicans), whomever the candidate is will have a near impossible battle - even if that candidate has an excellent ‘ground game’ (something the Republicans have lacked for decades).
The Democrats want a dictatorship by any means necessary.
I guess that’s why I like Trump. I agree completely with you about politicians but Trump’s not a politician. He says what he thinks, let’s it all hang out, not troubling to make it tidy. His reputation as a business man is of a man who is a straight talker and follows through on what he says.
That’s what upsets some people; he leaves the edges rough. With him though I feel WYSIWYG, there are things he has said which were positions that were just mainstream, to get along, things he had really never thought through or researched. He supported Planned Parenthood because he believed what they said about women’s health being their main business. When he saw the videos he was aghast and very strong in his disavowal of what they are doing.
He still wants to support women’s health so he tempers it by supporting that portion of PP. I think its difficult to believe at first how truly depraved and cynical Planned Parenthood truly is. They should be fined and imprisoned into oblivion and other sources of care should be supported, preferably on the local level.
No, RCP does not include them because they have no controls and are not statistically valid. Anyone could take the poll as many times as they like, could describe themselves any way they want, etc. Even the people who did the "poll" admit they cannot even calculate an MOE because they cannot validate any of the data...
Excuse me? Where did that come from? Trump has said only good things about Mexicans? The Latin America vote is more positive toward Trump than any other Republican going back several election cycles. He has said that Mexico sends its criminals here. OK every nation has criminals its the criminal part he is objecting to not the Mexican. He says we have to know who is here in our country and we need to control our borders. Its ilegals not Mexicans he is objecting to. I’d say that the crack about not likeing Mexicans is a knife pointed not only at Trump but at anyone who supports him, which included lots of Mexican Americans.
You've given up on America. OK. Some of us haven't.
Never give up, never surrender.
You really need to educate yourself on how online polling works. You are the lone voice on here constantly carping about it. You make the ridiculous assertion that this is a quasi Drudge poll which is not true. Sorry Cruz continues to get smoked nationally, but this poll is in line with every other national poll released in the last few weeks.
“We have to know who is in our country and we have to control the borders” is Rubio’s immigration policy, and emphatically NOT Trump’s immigration policy, and everyone knows that.
Quite a few in the west.
A big question in the election is whether Trump supporters will change their minds. Our results show that half of Trump voters (51%) say they are absolutely certain they will vote for him. Another 3 in 10 Trump supporters say there is a large chance they will vote for him. Cruz and Rubio supporters, however, are not as certain that they will vote for their candidate. Just under half (49%) of both candidates' supporters say there is a large chance they will vote for their candidate but they are not absolutely certain.
I did not say I gave up on America - that’s your erroneous conclusion. Just reporting the facts the media will not tell you, even on FR.
They most certainly do have controls. They are taken from 3 million daily respondents and as shown on page 7 of 7 are sampled to develop a confidence measure. All polls come with disclaimers. Some have been historically more accurate than others.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/294643292/NBC-News-SurveyMonkey-Weekly-Election-Tracking-Poll
The analysis of how accurate survey monkey has been over the years suggests that in 2014 it was slightly below 95% accurate.
**For a comparison, the absolute average accuracy for the US Presidential race was 0.055 in 2012 with three out of twenty-five polls falling outside of the 95% confidence intervals and 0.037 in 2008 with none of the nineteen polls falling outside of the 95% confidence intervals.
Accuracy problems with the SurveyMonkey polls are found across sample sizes. Seven out of the ten polls with sample sizes of less than 1,100 have accuracy measures outside of the 95% confidence intervals and ten out of the fifteen polls with sample sizes of 4,000 or more have accuracy measures outside the 95% confidence intervals.
Survey Monkey has stepped up their game in 2016 Pollsters routinely use statistical adjustments to make their poll results better predict election outcomes, because the small percentage of adults who actually respond to a survey usually aren’t representative of the whole electorate. Blumenthal says. SurveyMonkey pollsters may need to do fewer of these mathematical corrections because it has access to such a broad range of Americans. “They’re incredibly diverse,” he says of the people who respond to polls through the site.
Keep dreaming!!!
Rubio’s policy on immigration is the more the merrier.
https://www.donaldjtrump.com/positions/immigration-reform
Alternate reality?
Obviously, you haven’t heard Trump. He loves Mexicans. He hates illegal immigration and those that come here illegally and commit crimes and take away jobs.
Down the road will the establishment vote go to Cruz if they honestly see him electable - Reagan cred yes but Reagan persona? Man that's a stretch.
I am speculating, but Cruz is very well known within the party and should have a commanding lead - not just in IA but NH and through the South.
In the last election the polls were off by as much as 20%. So, we really don't know much until March. However, Cruz should be doing way, way better in the polls - and maybe he is in reality - but we just don't see it.
I know I am shocked by Trump's crowds and his polling success. He is a street brawler with a sharp-stick-in-the-eye message, but that shouldn't affect the consistent, conservative primary voter unless there is some negative intangible about Cruz that has yet to be articulated (or again, it doesn't exist and the polls are all wrong).
You know that in itself (what you just wrote) is exactly what I’m talking about ... which is making any meaningful discussion more and more impossible here on FR.
It's the ghost of Christmas yet to come.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.