[Lagmeister]

There seems to be a perspective here and in the media that after IA that the election shuffles like a deck of cards. There is a first for everything, but I don't see that happening - especially since Trump is a very well known entity nationally.

Down the road will the establishment vote go to Cruz if they honestly see him electable - Reagan cred yes but Reagan persona? Man that's a stretch.

I am speculating, but Cruz is very well known within the party and should have a commanding lead - not just in IA but NH and through the South.

In the last election the polls were off by as much as 20%. So, we really don't know much until March. However, Cruz should be doing way, way better in the polls - and maybe he is in reality - but we just don't see it.

I know I am shocked by Trump's crowds and his polling success. He is a street brawler with a sharp-stick-in-the-eye message, but that shouldn't affect the consistent, conservative primary voter unless there is some negative intangible about Cruz that has yet to be articulated (or again, it doesn't exist and the polls are all wrong).

[MaxFlint]

There seems to be a perspective here and in the media that after IA that the election shuffles like a deck of cards. There is a first for everything, but I don't see that happening - especially since Trump is a very well known entity nationally.

If he wants to beat Trump Cruz has to win IA and NH. That would shuffle the deck. IA alone isn't enough, it will be dismissed as another Huckabee/Santorum fluke.

Down the road will the establishment vote go to Cruz if they honestly see him electable - Reagan cred yes but Reagan persona? Man that's a stretch.

The establishment is holding off until Jeb bombs in IA and NH. That will give them cover to rally to Rubio, their second choice. Cruz might get their votes and money if it's down to him or Trump, but I don't rule out the deal maker cutting one with the GOPe and locking things up by April.