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Will ‘Electability’ Sink Trump?
Roll Call ^ | Jan. 3, 2016 | Stuart Rothenberg

Posted on 01/03/2016 8:53:05 PM PST by justlittleoleme

Most national polls show Republican frontrunner Donald Trump trailing likely Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton and faring worse than other GOP hopefuls against her.

That raises an obvious question: Could doubts about Trump's strength in a general election derail his bid for the Republican nomination, or would GOP caucus attendees and primary voters simply ignore poll numbers that suggest Trump would be a risky bet in November?

SNIP

But Quinnipiac University's Dec. 16-20 survey showed Trump's image with all registered voters at 33 percent favorable/59 percent unfavorable - dismal numbers, and the highest unfavorable rating of any GOP hopeful.

Trump trailed Clinton by 11 points, 49 percent to 38 percent, in the mid-December Fox News ballot test, while Cruz and Clinton were tied at 45 percent and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio held a 45 percent to 43 percent lead over Clinton. The Quinnipiac poll found Trump trailing Clinton 47 percent to 40 percent, while Cruz and Clinton were tied at 44 percent and Rubio trailed Clinton by a single point, 44 percent to 43 percent.

But not every survey showed Trump trailing Clinton so dramatically in hypothetical match ups. For example, a Dec. 17-21 CNN/ORC survey showed the two candidates separated by only two points (Clinton 49 percent, Trump 47 percent). Of course, Cruz held a 2-point lead over Clinton and Rubio a 3-point lead in that survey, seemingly confirming that Trump is a weaker nominee against Clinton than at least two other Republican hopefuls.

But even if additional surveys between now and the Iowa caucuses show Trump's relative weakness in the general election, it is not yet clear that GOP voters - and Trump voters - will care. Opinion about the importance of "electability" as an issue for voters has been divided over the years.

(Excerpt) Read more at 3.blogs.rollcall.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: cruzisright; election; elections; ezsleazylawyerted; immigration; nocharismated; stalewhitebreadted; trump; trumpaintright; trumpwasright; trusted
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To: dp0622
I like cruz a lot but I kind of agree. I wonder why he fares better in the polls. Interesting

It's simple. When Trump mocks and insults the other candidates those that support those candidates are less likely to move towards Trump once their candidate drops out.
41 posted on 01/03/2016 9:36:51 PM PST by kik5150
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To: Theo

Polls showed Carter beating Reagan by double digits two weeks before the election.

Maybe just maybe the polls are designed to influence opinion rather than inform.


42 posted on 01/03/2016 9:38:15 PM PST by crusher2013 (Liberalism is Aristocracy masquerading as equalityheir)
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To: kik5150

The popular vote is irrelevant. State by state electoral votes elect the President.

Right now, Hillary has all the electoral vote-rich states locked up based on past voting history:

NY - 29, PA 20, VA 13, MI 16, IL 20, CA 55.

OH with 18 is a must win for a GOP presidential candidate and FL with 29 is a swing state.


43 posted on 01/03/2016 9:38:48 PM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: justlittleoleme

Cruz does not open the map, in fact no other republican than Trump opens the map.

I personally see no other candidate that cracks the map wide open and puts more states in play than Trump.

Any other candidate, and you have basically the same map as 2012 with repub fighting for a handful or so states to flip there way to manage a win, because nothing has changed, even with Hillary as weak as she is as a candidate, the dynamic is the same as before... No significant change to the dynamic just hopes that a better GOTV gets a win.. Because nothing is different.

Trump cracks the map wide open IMHO... States no one could imagine being in play with anyone else open up.


44 posted on 01/03/2016 9:40:04 PM PST by HamiltonJay
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To: justlittleoleme

anyone that is stupid enough, or willfully ignorant enough, to vote for Hillary Clinton, should lose their right to vote permanently, and be forever deported from the United States of America. She is that bad of a candidate. She should not the allowed to be running for office. Any office!anyone that is willing to cast their vote for this despicable cretin should lose that right to vote. To vote for Hillary Clinton is a decidedly unAmerican, anti-american act. Such voters do not love our country


45 posted on 01/03/2016 9:40:06 PM PST by LeoWindhorse
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To: justlittleoleme

No, it won’t. Because Obama already proved that electability didn’t make a difference to his getting elected for TWO terms.

We broke that paradigm already.


46 posted on 01/03/2016 9:40:35 PM PST by Advil000
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To: kik5150

Cruz is a good man and I have high hopes for him. But he has a mighty high mountain to climb, too. Trump towers over them all and he has barely begun to fight. And has spent next to nothing compared to the others. And I wouldn’t sell Trump short on broader appeal. Americans love a strong leader. And a winner.


47 posted on 01/03/2016 9:41:01 PM PST by Jim Robinson (Resistance to tyrants is obedience to to God!)
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To: justlittleoleme

The fears that The Donald will not come through are the typical hand wringing that goes with the political game. What will settle those fears is when he pulls out all stops and plays his trump cards. Right now he is holding his cards for the big play and will not tell what his strategy will be. It is the art of keeping ones opponent guessing what his next move will be. The game of chess is a good example of that.


48 posted on 01/03/2016 9:44:48 PM PST by jonrick46 (The Left has a mental disorder: A totalitarian mindset..)
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To: cpdiii

I have been advocating for a businessman for 20 years. We spend money to find out why lesbians are obese, to teach African men how to wash their weenies after sex. Give zillions to nations whose people hate us! This is no way to run a business or a country!
I was actually a Perot fan for about a week. I have this mental cartoon of the little guy streaking around the Oval Office desk, squeaking “Veto! Veto! We Can’t afford that! Veto! Veto!” The money we spend on complete bs is completely insane!


49 posted on 01/03/2016 9:46:05 PM PST by Dr. Bogus Pachysandra (Don't touch that thing Don't let anybody touch that thing!I'm a Doctor and I won't touch that thing!)
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To: goldstategop
...."No other GOP candidate has his star power and broad appeal.".....

Otherwise called a 'Celebrity Politician'....and in this case also selling his brand to an eager public........'salespeople' may 'mirror' YOUR speech, mannerisms, and behavior. This concept is known as mirroring, and works to increase 'your positive feelings toward the seller'... Mirroring also works well with branding, as a particular brand may be intended for 'a target' audience.....Trump has the technique down to a science after 20 years of practice....he's simply transferred it over to the political stage with all the buzz words his new audience wants to hear...and since starving for attention he's able to feed them easily and quench their thirst..


50 posted on 01/03/2016 9:47:00 PM PST by caww
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To: Jim Robinson

“Electability”
Is the easiest part of a poll to manipulate. We actually put it in practice in high school fifty years ago. If there is a candidate that you do not think you can beat a coalition of the other candidates is formed to check the box creating unelectable. You vote for your candidate and against the person at the top Since DT is at the top of all, the R candidates will naturally coalesce with D to make him look bad
Doesn’t mean a thing — except DT is winning and they all know it!


51 posted on 01/03/2016 9:47:06 PM PST by hoosiermama
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To: cpdiii

That is the exact reason CRUZ is more suited for the judicial branch of government and not the executive. He has no managerial experience running anything. On the bench of the SCOTUS he would serve for life and better meet the country’s needs


52 posted on 01/03/2016 9:51:42 PM PST by hoosiermama
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To: Jim Robinson

If obama is going to spend his last year seeing what all he can do to make more and more angry.. Trump’s numbers will just continue to go up.

If the feds keep raising the interest rate. If more and more refugees are forced on us. If, God forbid, there are more attacks against the US. Hillary will have her hands full trying to explain. obama does not care, but the clintons will have to. And with Trump on the stage every day going after her, it’s going to be a hard sell for hillary.


53 posted on 01/03/2016 9:51:45 PM PST by frnewsjunkie
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To: justlittleoleme
Trump's image with all registered voters at 33 percent favorable/59 percent unfavorable - dismal numbers, and the highest unfavorable rating of any GOP hopeful.

This is what I've been saying all along: Trump's negatives are through the roof. Trump has virtually 100% name recognition, and most people have a negative view toward him. He who lives by the poll shall die by the poll.

54 posted on 01/03/2016 9:51:52 PM PST by Charles Henrickson (Social and constitutional conservative)
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To: Theo

I’m not worried about Trump winning the general election. It will probably be a bigger landslide than Reagan.


55 posted on 01/03/2016 9:53:17 PM PST by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose of a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped)
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To: justlittleoleme; Jim Robinson; Theo

So much panic. So little common sense.

The Clinton camp is concerned about one guy right now, TRUMP, and how in the world they can answer his style of attack, if she can even beat him. Read it on DRUDGE 30 minutes ago.

We should reckon the Clinton camp serves as pretty interesting poll of its own. They aren’t beginners at sizing up their prey.

Fearlessness is something Hillary Clinton has never faced. She is used to bearing that role, arriving in full battle array herself, with political and media forces fit for Cleopatra.

Well, not any more.

This TRUMP guy is no run of the mill political game player and everybody knows it.


56 posted on 01/03/2016 9:54:20 PM PST by RitaOK ( VIVA CRISTO REY / Public education is the farm team for more Marxists coming)
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To: justlittleoleme

Thanks for the link.

It shows there zero significant difference between any of them.

The funniest thing is the outliers.

Fox News has Trump losing by 11 to Clinton and Bush beating her by 6!

That’s actually laughable.

And those are included in the average.

It’s a joke.


57 posted on 01/03/2016 9:59:59 PM PST by ifinnegan (Democrats kill babies and harvest their organs to sell)
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To: RitaOK

Trump will do one better than posting a picture of her with her finger up her nose to make her a laughing stock hmmmm. Wonder what’s available ?

He understands marketing and marginalizing better than any non-business candidate. He hasn’t started on HRC yet.

T is for Tsunami!


58 posted on 01/03/2016 10:03:09 PM PST by hoosiermama
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To: goldstategop
Many Freezers report that lots of Dems that they have as relatives, co-workers, and so forth, are actually enthusiastic about voting for Trump, but just have to be careful to whom they admit it.

If true, this will certainly swing MI and PA; VA is up in the air due to the beltway bandits and their families not actually feeling any privation. What will also happen, is that the (carefully hidden from us) internals of the polls will force the Dems to spend money to shore up leaks, and protect former "solid" areas.

Also, 'ware of coattails. IF the GOPe were not a bunch of blackmailed creeps and or Democrat moles, they'd join with Trump and turn the election into a celebratory rout and repudiation of everything Obama, Kerry and Clinton have ever worked for.

59 posted on 01/03/2016 10:03:28 PM PST by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change without notice.)
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To: editor-surveyor

You are the nervous type aren’t you? LOL! There’s a lot of swinging there, but with all that action, you just can’t cough up a hit.


60 posted on 01/03/2016 10:04:32 PM PST by RitaOK ( VIVA CRISTO REY / Public education is the farm team for more Marxists coming)
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