The popular vote is irrelevant. State by state electoral votes elect the President.
Right now, Hillary has all the electoral vote-rich states locked up based on past voting history:
NY - 29, PA 20, VA 13, MI 16, IL 20, CA 55.
OH with 18 is a must win for a GOP presidential candidate and FL with 29 is a swing state.
If true, this will certainly swing MI and PA; VA is up in the air due to the beltway bandits and their families not actually feeling any privation. What will also happen, is that the (carefully hidden from us) internals of the polls will force the Dems to spend money to shore up leaks, and protect former "solid" areas.
Also, 'ware of coattails. IF the GOPe were not a bunch of blackmailed creeps and or Democrat moles, they'd join with Trump and turn the election into a celebratory rout and repudiation of everything Obama, Kerry and Clinton have ever worked for.
I doubt any candidate has Virginia locked up. That state is trended Dem in the last two cycles, but is very much a battleground state. Virginia is essential in most Republican win scenarios, along with Florida and Ohio, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Colorado, Iowa and Nevada.
From your list, Pennsylvania and Michigan are what I consider Tier 2 states. They trend Democrat, but are winnable by Republicans in the right environment in a mini-landslide scenario along with Wisconsin, Minnesota and New Jersey. (With the later two being unlikely).
Illinois, New York and the People’s Socialist Republic of California are lost causes, along with Hawaii, DC, Delaware, Connecticut, Vermont, Rhode Island and Massachusetts. One of Maine’s CD is usually in far reach for the Republicans, but trends Democrat. The other CD and the state as a whole, is generally safe Democrat. Oregon and Washington are long reaches for the Republicans in a true landslide election.
The rest of the states are generally favorable to the Republicans: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming.
North Carolina and Missouri would likely be the first the Democrats would pick off in a worst case scenario (Tier 2), followed by Tennessee, Georgia and one of the Nebraska CDs in a true nightmare landslide.
Virginia and Colorado can both be in play this year. Hillary will lock up Northern VA but she can’t win anything else in the state. She will have to reach Obama 2008 levels of support in order to win VA if, and this is a big if, the suburban and rural electorate are energized and motivated.