Donald Trump Leads Ted Cruz by 12 points in Missouri – 36-24%

Overtime Politics ^ | 1/2/16 | Fred

[BigEdLB]

Donald Trump and Ted Cruz are locking horns in a few early voting states, but when it comes to states that vote later in the season, Trump seems to have a noticeable advantage. He leads among likely Missouri Republican primary voters 36-24%, with Marco Rubio not too far behind tallying 18%.

[Redmen4ever]

I have Donald Trump in the low to mid 30s. Ted Cruz + Ben Carson have totaled almost the same number for the past several months. Cruz does not have to be the only other contestant to finish first in the WTA states. It would be sufficient for him to consolidate the social conservatives and libertarians, for him to be able to go toe-to-toe with the Donald. It has always been Cruz’ plan to consolidate social conservatives and libertarians. But, Carson and a few others have their part to do.

[flaglady47]

“I will probably vote for Trump if he wins the nomination but I am growing tired of seeing Cruz trashed in what was once a very conservative forum.”

Few Freepers are trashing Cruz; it is some of the zealous Cruz supporters who make a habit of trashing Trump and his supporters on pro-Trump threads that arouse the ire. Those Cruz people, know who they are, and should cut it out.

[mconley22]

I understand the mentality of voters. Whether the GOPe likes it or not, most voters do not like casting ballots for losers. If the GOPe could will a result or buy one with money, then Jeb Bush would not be polling in the low single digits. If one of the GOPe candidates does not gain some traction soon, this will become a two man race. That does not mean that there will be only two candidates - it means that there may be only two viable candidates.

That being said, if Rubio or Christie can manage a strong showing in Iowa or New Hampshire, then they may be seen as having a reasonable shot at the nomination. If Cruz and Trump sweep the top two spots in both states, then it will become very difficult for the GOPe to convince many voters that their candidate can win.

My point is not that the GOP nomination will become a two man race but the scenario in which the race can become a two man race is a realistic one. It is human nature to want to follow a winner. There will only be a three-way race as long as supporters of three candidates believe that they are backing the eventual winner.

The second choice numbers are important because they provide a snapshot of where the support of drop-out and fading candidates would go.

[mconley22]

Trump's shift from bipartisan donations to primarily donating to the Republican Party appears to almost coincide with his decision to trademark “Make America great again.” I suspect that was about the time that he seriously began to consider running for president. It does not bother me that he has converted from Democrat to Republican but it does bother me that his record of supporting conservative positions is a very recent development.

It is easy to predict what agendas Hillary Clinton or Ted Cruz would pursue as POTUS based on their past performance. If I vote for Trump in the general election, it will be a roll of the dice for me. Hopefully, we would get the GOP primary Trump that does not shy away from conflict and not the Trump that spent most of his adult life buying influence through campaign contributions. We do not need a go along to get along Republican in the White House.

[Redmen4ever]

Yes, Arthur, and nobody has the right to slaves. So, when the Southern states seceded the Northern states were no longer restrained by the Constitution to respect the peculiar form of property of the Southern states. Lincoln initially sought to schmooze the issue of slavery. But, eventually issued the emancipation proclamation. This changed whatever had been the reason for the Northern states to invade the Southern states into a moral one.

NEXT TIME: don’t intermingle slavery and self-determination.

[CPT Clay]

Reminds me of those magical numbers: 36-24-36

mmmmmm

[CPT Clay]

that is what I fear, a united GOPe.

[conservativegamer]

Once Trump loses Iowa, people will begin to panic. His polls may remain high, but his lackluster organization will start to deteriorate even more.

[St_Thomas_Aquinas]

The problem with your second choice theory

It's not a theory, it's data in bar graph form.

[Arthur McGowan]

When the Confederacy formed, it became another country. The U.S. had no right to wage a war to end the Confederacy.

Slavery is utterly irrelevant.

[St_Thomas_Aquinas]

No. For the millionth time. Face reality, this is NOT a "two-man race."

I said that "this is not a two man race." It seems like we agree.

Rubio is not dropping out.

The one to watch is Carson. When he drops out Trump's lead will evaporate.

[St_Thomas_Aquinas]

Once Trump loses Iowa, people will begin to panic.

There are people in my family who have bragged about voting for "the winner." So the aura of invincibility is important.

That aura will be gone after Iowa, when these kinds of lo-fo voters start paying attention.

[Amntn]

You are theorizing that all or most second choice voters come from candidates other than Trump.

[St_Thomas_Aquinas]

Yes.

[Redmen4ever]

Slavery is irrelevant? No, slavery is evil.

You obviously believe in state rights. I believe in individual rights. You would say , like Nazis at Nuremberg, I was only following orders. Or, like Saddam Hussein, I couldn’t commit murder, I was the President. Here’s what the Declaration of Independence says, our rights come from our Creator, and when any government becomes antithetical to those rights, it is the right, no the duty of the people to alter or abolish it. The day is coming, sir, when all murderers, rapists and slavers will be treated as the criminals that they are.

[LS]

No, it won't. Carson's guys have already gone, split about 65-35 Cruz, and Cruz still hasn't caught up.

Graspin at that little straw again.

[LS]

Not recently. Recently, the Republicans have broken down into conservatives/Libertarian/Tea Party and mainstream/GOPe, and increasingly the voters of one will not support the other.

I have not seen evidence of the "four million" who "stayed home" in 2012. Some did, but not enough to change anything. But Romney did not attract REGULAR "stay at home" conservatives who saw in him nothing different. Sure, at some point (July) it may become a two-man race when it's over. But the GOPe are not going to drop out until it's really clear they have lost, and their supporters---most of them---will not go to Cruz. They will not vote.

[LS]

Except in most polls now Trump is pushing 40, exceeding 40 in some.

[mconley22]

GOPe candidates may still be on the ballot in July, but unless one of them catches fire by the time the SC primary votes have been counted, the GOPe candidate(s) are not going to be winning enough delegates to matter. I believe that Cruz is right about the race being over by the end of March. The result will not be official by then, but the winner and losers will be obvious by then.

I also believe that most of the supporters of GOPe candidates will end up in the Cruz camp when it becomes apparent that none of the GOPe candidates have a shot at the nomination. Trump's personal insults are driving up Cruz's “second choice” numbers and will continue to do so, IMO.

[Amntn]

Then, as I stated before, there is a problem with your theory.

A lot of voters who support Trump first have Cruz as their second choice.

For those voters to actually vote for Cruz, Trump would have to drop out which is not going to happen.