Posted on 12/31/2015 5:54:01 PM PST by Kaslin
That’s odd. What could Democrats possibly see in a lifelong true conservative like Donald Trump?
There’s something for everyone in Nate Cohn’s new post. If you’re a Trump fan, here’s the smoking gun that he really is a new Reagan, the guy who’s going to broaden the tent and sweep to victory in November by bringing centrist Democrats into the GOP. If you’re a Trump critic, here’s further proof that he’s the RINO of RINOs, a man who’s blended nationalism, center-left economics, and Jacksonian foreign policy into something that tastes better to members of the other party than it does to conservatives. That sounds a lot like Perotism, frankly — except, according to the (Democratic) pollster who provided Cohn with data, Trump’s geographic support is the opposite of Perot’s. Perot did best in the west and in New England. Trump cleans up in the south, up through Appalachia, and into the industrial northeastern states like New York. How do you explain that?
Cohn’s theory, comparing Trump’s map of support to a map of “racially charged Internet searches,” is that prejudice is driving some of his votes. There was nothing comparable in Perot’s campaign to Trump inveighing against rapists from Mexico and calling for a temporary ban on Muslims entering the United States. (There’s no disputing that Trump is the favored candidate of the white nationalists of the “alt-right.”) On the other hand, how many Trump voters in economically distressed industrial areas in the eastern U.S. like Trump’s immigration rhetoric because they “hate” Mexicans and how many simply want less competition from foreign labor in the name of bringing back jobs to America? According to Cohn, Trump’s best state is West Virginia; West Virginia also happens to be the only state in the U.S. where (as of March of this year) less than half of the adult civilian population is employed. Being a protectionist doesn’t make you a racist. Either way, though, this part is certainly true — and important to the future of the GOP:
In many of these areas, a large number of traditionally Democratic voters have long supported Republicans in presidential elections. Even now, Democrats have more registered voters than Republicans do in states like West Virginia and Kentucky, which have been easily carried by Republicans in every presidential contest of this century. As recently as a few years ago, Democrats still had a big advantage in partisan self-identification in the same states.
But during the Obama era, many of these voters have abandoned the Democrats. Many Democrats may now even identify as Republicans, or as independents who lean Republican, when asked by pollsters a choice that means they're included in a national Republican primary survey, whether they remain registered as Democrats or not.
Conn Carroll put it this way:
I think a big part of what explains Trump is the natural growing pains of the GOP assimilating big govt whites leaving the Dem Party.
— Conn Carroll (@conncarroll) December 31, 2015
Right. The GOP is gradually becoming older and whiter due to white Democrats crossing the aisle for various reasons — contempt for some Democratic welfare programs, disagreement with progressives on cultural flashpoints like gay marriage, righteous disgust for the left’s insistence on open borders, racial anxiety, and so forth. On “values” issues, that influx of culturally conservative Dems will help entrench the GOP (for a while, at least) as a socially right-wing party despite more centrist tendencies among younger Republicans. Economically, though, it seems likely to do the opposite: Trump’s gone a long, long way this year preaching protectionism and zealous defense of entitlements, and as the Democratic constituency within the GOP grows, other Republican pols will feel pressure to follow suit. The Reagan revolution was about convincing centrist Dems to try smaller government and deregulation; the Trump revolution is about convincing them that big government will work for them with Donald Trump in charge. A populist would say that that’s really no different than what we have now, with GOP candidates preaching Reaganism to get elected and then practicing Trumpism once in office — except it’s Trumpism for the donor class, not for blue-collar voters. Reaganism remains the party’s ideological guiding star, though, at least for the moment. If Trump has a long run this year thanks to centrist Democrats coming out to vote for him in Republican primaries, does that change? How do you build a conservative party if a significant chunk of it is Democratic? Or do we no longer care about conservatism so long as we’ve got nationalism?
That’s the long-term problem. The short-term problem is one for Trump: How do you get these Democratic voters re-registered as Republicans and out to the polls in February? And if you’re Ted Cruz, how do you maintain your position as their second choice when you’re running as the staunchest conservative in the field? Maybe continuing to attack the “Washington cartel” without emphasizing too heavily how right-wing you are is enough. I’d be curious to see how Trump fans shake out, though, in a hypothetical match-up between Cruz and, say, Chris Christie after a month or two of Christie selling his own brand of alpha-male centrism on the trail beyond New Hampshire. If you want a guy who knows how to pander to Democratic voters and ostentatiously doesn’t care how boorish people find him, there’s an obvious choice. And it ain’t Ted Cruz.
Exit question: Is Trump’s Democratic support being oversold by Cohn? Look back at the numbers at the top. Even among registered Republicans, he’s just a hair shy of 30 percent support, enough to lead the field. Is that because a bunch of former Democrats have already re-registered as Republicans over the last 10 years and are responding to Trump? Or is Trump appealing in some ways even to longtime righties?
Love it!!
Your Trump dance card :)
Happy New Year, dear Leni!
Selected Trump articles on FR, from 2:00 PM to 11:59 PM EST, 12/31/15:
Trump's strongest Republican supporters: Registered Democrats?
Pastor Manning Endorses Donald Trump
Farrakhan's Warning About What Will Happen If Donald Trump Becomes President
Government responds to petition to ban Donald Trump from UK
Here Are The Top 10 Donald Trump Stories Of 2015... This Is Exactly Why America Loves Trump
Trump slams New Year's Eve dump of Clinton emails
Battle for the White House RCP Poll Averages
Thanks for the ping.
Trump’s going to take the country walking away. :-)
My Union loving Democrat cousin told me today, that NO WAY will he vote for Hillary. He said the only support she’ll have will be menopausal women who hate men. He said he’d vote for Trump. He’s from Texas, but he won’t vote for Cruz. I believe there are many Democrats out there like him who are questioning, “Why is she even running?” Just to say she is the first woman? We put the first black in because he was black and look what we got. The President position should not be an OJT position. I think Trump has the voter appeal that the others lack. I’m saying the majority of voters, all parties included. Love Cruz, would love to see him win, but he’s too long of a long shot to put money on.
I cannot wait to vote for trump!
Happy New Year to you and yours.
Leni
It’s not drivel; I came to my conclusions (Specifically, the conclusion that I think that Trump’s plan, as written, is the better one. And also that the illegal invasion is the MOST important issue in this election) on my own, doing my own comparisons and my own research. I looked at what you posted a few weeks back, and while it brought some new thoughts to mind, it did not quite convince me.
If you don’t like that my conclusion differs from yours, fine, whatever. But it’s my conclusion, and until new facts arise to modify it, I’m going to stick to it. You think differently, and you’re going to stick to your guns too. Good. Neither of us are seers or telepathic, so we don’t know the future; the best we can do is to make an educated guess, but if we change our views solely because of name-calling and peer pressure, we’re pretty much Democrats. Or worse, the GOP.
And just to be clear, I LIKE Cruz’s plan on immigration, and I like Cruz. If he should be the candidate, I will do my best to set aside the apathy that all the bickering on FR has set on my shoulders and campaign for him, in hopes that his plan, despite my doubts, will be enough.
In another election, at another time, I’d be all for Cruz’s proposal. But after reading it, I don’t think that it goes far enough in this particular dangerous situation, and I don’t think that Cruz would have enough popular support after an election to get it put through.
Right now I just hope that I’m wrong about Cruz not being strong enough and you’re wrong about Trump being a massive liar. I’d much rather see that both men and all those behind them be willing and able to kick the corrupt politicians in DC right into the ocean.
BOY, I wish that I was in your situation!
I was having dinner with my mother and stepfather while visiting family the other night. I mentioned that I liked Trump. Mom called me crazy and my stepdad all but called me a xenophobe Muslim-hater in front of the entire restaurant. If I’d had my own car there, I’d have walked out right then and spent the night in a hotel.
What am I supposed to do? They’re family, but that was completely unacceptable.
Gee I know I liked Trump better when HE was a Democrat
Take care Skeeter.
Skeeter has all the bases covered. I feel the same. The nominee won’t be anyone other than Trump or Cruz. ‘That I can tell you.’
That’s right. This poll includes polling of democrats. Something that has yet to be tested by any other poll. These results should be celebrated and not criticized. Trump’s support among dems is stronger that Republican support. He also wins with either one or both groups. Just amazing.
Ya’ll been praying for Americans to wake up, now that they are you’re anxious?
Here’s some background on Heidi Cruz:
http://themonicaperezshow.com/2015/04/09/ted-cruz-on-the-cfr-a-pernicious-nest-of-snakes-working-to-undermine-our-sovereignty/
I couldn’t care less. If you think she’s got Ted PW’d into being some sort of globalist, then you’re just delusional enough to believe in Donald Trump.
I’m not critical of it over the long haul, but right now I’m concerned with the primaries.
This poll is another attempt to make it look like Trump can’t draw Conservatives. He’s drawing a lot of them, and other Republicans too. “He draws Democrats!” Tell me that isn’t a message to “Conservatives.” “Be careful now, do you want to support a guy whose mostly appealing to Democrats?”
Sure you and I won’t buy into this, but there are others out there who will think about it. Maybe not this cycle, but it’s sure worked for them before.
I don’t trust these media outlets any farther than I can drop kick them.
Perhaps the bold highlight escaped you. I'll repeat.
"a lifelong true conservative like Donald Trump?" Lifelong conservative is not supported by the evidence.
“....Anyone else and I’ll sit the election out.”
A friend told me if it’s Trump, she’ll sit the election out, at least for the presidential office.
Sorry, but folks like my friend, and you, gave us Obama, which in turn gave us isis, etc..
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