Posted on 12/22/2015 4:10:09 AM PST by VinL
Ted Cruz is going to wake up to an early Christmas gift from the polling elves at Quinnipiac University, as their new results show him making a YUGE leap in popularity to gain on the front-runner Trump. For his part, he increased by one point as well.
Donald Trump’s perch atop the 2016 presidential polls is looking a little shakier this morning.
In the latest Quinnipiac University national survey released Tuesday, Trump leads Texas Sen. Ted Cruz by just four percentage points.
Trump’s share remained essentially unchanged from the university’s last poll, ticking up one point to 28 percent. Cruz, meanwhile, shot up eight percentage points to 24 percent.
Florida Sen. Marco Rubio finished third with 12 percent, a five-point drop since late November, while retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson continued his downward spiral with 10 percent, a six-point hit in the same period. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie registered 6 percent, his highest level of support in a telephone poll since late May. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush took 4 percent, while all other candidates earned 2 percent or less and 8 percent remained undecided. Of those who named a candidate, 58 percent of Republican voters said they might change their mind before voting in their state’s primary.
Cruz commanded pluralities of support over Trump among those describing themselves as members of the tea party (38 percent to 27 percent) and white, born-again Evangelical Christians (33 percent to 22 percent). Cruz also led Trump among very conservative supporters (38 percent to 27 percent), while Trump led at least nominally in every other demographic polled.
But it’s close. Among men, for example, Cruz trails Trump 30 percent to 29 percent, while among those with a college degree, he trails 24 percent to 21 percent.
In other results, it looks like Cruz does best in a head-to-head competition with Hillary, but he finishes even:
I can imagine a scenario where Cruz performs admirably in the presidential debates, and wakes up the day after election day on the short end of a 400 electoral vote landslide.
I’ll vote for him without hesitation, but I have no illusions about him winning.
Maybe I’m wrong.
> Ted Cruz is going to wake up to an early Christmas gift from the polling elves at Quinnipiac University, as their new results show him making a YUGE leap in popularity to gain on the front-runner Trump. For his part, he increased by one point as well.
<hard to take an article like this seriously when it mentions a university took a poll and says Cruz made a “YUGE” instead of HUGE leap...lol
A Trumpet claiming an unfavorable poll is bogus. I am shocked I tell ya!!!!!!! /s
Are you a parrot? Seems I have heard you say the same damn thing on 2 other threads.
Yet another “POLL”........meaning NOTHING.
Both of them?
“Cruz commanded pluralities of support over Trump among those describing themselves as members of the tea party (38 percent to 27 percent) and white, born-again Evangelical Christians (33 percent to 22 percent). Cruz also led Trump among very conservative supporters (38 percent to 27 percent), while Trump led at least nominally in every other demographic polled.”
That shows me that Cruz could win the primary but not the general since his support is limited with no cross-over appeal.
| Poll | Date |
Trump
|
Cruz
|
Rubio
|
Carson
|
Bush
|
Christie
|
Paul
|
Fiorina
|
Kasich
|
Huckabee
|
Santorum
|
Graham
|
Pataki
|
Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCP Average | 12/2 - 12/20 | 33.6 | 18.0 | 12.3 | 10.0 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | Trump +15.6 |
| QuinnipiacQuinnipiac | 12/16 - 12/20 | 28 | 24 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | Trump +4 |
| FOX NewsFOX News | 12/16 - 12/17 | 39 | 18 | 11 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | Trump +21 |
| PPP (D)PPP (D) | 12/16 - 12/17 | 34 | 18 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | Trump +16 |
| ABC News/Wash PostABC/WP | 12/10 - 12/13 | 38 | 15 | 12 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | Trump +23 |
| MonmouthMonmouth | 12/10 - 12/13 | 41 | 14 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | Trump +27 |
| NBC/WSJNBC/WSJ | 12/6 - 12/9 | 27 | 22 | 15 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 3 | -- | -- | -- | Trump +5 |
| CBS/NY TimesCBS/NYT | 12/4 - 12/8 | 35 | 16 | 9 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Trump +19 |
| USA Today/SuffolkUSA Today | 12/2 - 12/6 | 27 | 17 | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | Trump +10 |
Except a plan that doesn’t include amnesty too.
Trump would make a fine secretary of state, or press secretary.
We don’t know whether this poll is nonsense or not.
One possibility is that it IS nonsense, and subsequent polls will show sharply different results. And because subsequent polls did not in any way confirm this one, we would consider this am oulier.
Conversely, this poll might be picking up a shift in the electorate. Perhaps, as we begin to move toward primary season, voters are waking from their slumber and looking more critically at candidates, and relying less on celebrity name recognition.
We’ll see over the coming days whether other polls show a simila r shift. That doesn’t mean we’d expect to see a bunch of polls where suddenly Sen. Cruz is suddenly in the lead, after wiping out double-digit deficits. Only that these gaps would narrow. Then, the trend would confirm that Sen. Cruz is gaining, and others are losing or staying still.
We must be patient.
The only thing t that is assuredly nonsense is your analysis. Classic case of denisl.
Trajectory, friend. Trajectory.
Don't you believe it.
Recall the case of Justice Clarence Thomas. When Thomas took his seat on the SCOTUS polls showed a majority of Americans believed him over Anita Hill (I forget the percentages).
Within one year those percentages flipped with absolutely NO NEW FACTS due to the constant haranguing by the press.
That's the kind of problem a President Cruz has to overcome.
Conversely, Trump has proven his ability to fly right over the media's heads despite their best efforts to marginalize him. Indeed, not just fly over their heads, but beat them at their own game, face to face, right on the ground.
No. Trump will continue to be their target right up until someone besides Trump wins the election.
Trump is killing. Cruz is easy 2nd but Trump isn’t losing any support.
I’m a known Cruz guy and I still am but I see Trump at the top right now.
I also see that he needs balance and good counsel in Cruz.
Ambivalent I am...
Nope. Just one other.
I thought it was appropriate.
I’m betting a lot of Huckabee’s support is and will continue to move to Cruz.
The GOPe has had only one thing left that kind of worked. The first time it happened it was stopped.
They are trying to set up another Trump/Cruz cage match.
The next two weeks will be tied up with Christmas and New Year, so the desperation is in full bloom.
Just not true. Trump will change the atmosphere in the country in a way that only he can right now. We will see tah ultimately Cruz is just another politician like so many before him. Trump may be a disappointment in the end but he is the only one who brings something different, a real change to the table. Hoping that our brothers in Christ can discern whether or not another Politician is really the change that is needed. Changing letters changes nothing
Source?
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