We don’t know whether this poll is nonsense or not.
One possibility is that it IS nonsense, and subsequent polls will show sharply different results. And because subsequent polls did not in any way confirm this one, we would consider this am oulier.
Conversely, this poll might be picking up a shift in the electorate. Perhaps, as we begin to move toward primary season, voters are waking from their slumber and looking more critically at candidates, and relying less on celebrity name recognition.
We’ll see over the coming days whether other polls show a simila r shift. That doesn’t mean we’d expect to see a bunch of polls where suddenly Sen. Cruz is suddenly in the lead, after wiping out double-digit deficits. Only that these gaps would narrow. Then, the trend would confirm that Sen. Cruz is gaining, and others are losing or staying still.
We must be patient.
The only thing t that is assuredly nonsense is your analysis. Classic case of denisl.
One other national poll showed Cruz within 5. Cruz does 4 points better against Hillary than Trump does in the RCP average.