Posted on 12/22/2015 4:10:09 AM PST by VinL
Ted Cruz is going to wake up to an early Christmas gift from the polling elves at Quinnipiac University, as their new results show him making a YUGE leap in popularity to gain on the front-runner Trump. For his part, he increased by one point as well.
Donald Trump’s perch atop the 2016 presidential polls is looking a little shakier this morning.
In the latest Quinnipiac University national survey released Tuesday, Trump leads Texas Sen. Ted Cruz by just four percentage points.
Trump’s share remained essentially unchanged from the university’s last poll, ticking up one point to 28 percent. Cruz, meanwhile, shot up eight percentage points to 24 percent.
Florida Sen. Marco Rubio finished third with 12 percent, a five-point drop since late November, while retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson continued his downward spiral with 10 percent, a six-point hit in the same period. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie registered 6 percent, his highest level of support in a telephone poll since late May. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush took 4 percent, while all other candidates earned 2 percent or less and 8 percent remained undecided. Of those who named a candidate, 58 percent of Republican voters said they might change their mind before voting in their state’s primary.
Cruz commanded pluralities of support over Trump among those describing themselves as members of the tea party (38 percent to 27 percent) and white, born-again Evangelical Christians (33 percent to 22 percent). Cruz also led Trump among very conservative supporters (38 percent to 27 percent), while Trump led at least nominally in every other demographic polled.
But it’s close. Among men, for example, Cruz trails Trump 30 percent to 29 percent, while among those with a college degree, he trails 24 percent to 21 percent.
In other results, it looks like Cruz does best in a head-to-head competition with Hillary, but he finishes even:
Right. Like Trump has really changed the minds of Mitch O’connel or any of the other GOPe leaders. Geez.
And Cruz has a “solid base” of 10, according to your math. Good to know.
Yeah, I’m generally pro-Cruz, and I’m notably anti-Trump, but this IS Quinnipiac, and if they said the sun was rising in the east, I’d double-check their methodology and sample set.
Oh I’ve seen it. I just don’t know it doesn’t make sense.
You, on the other hand, don’t care, and are a shining example of my post #11.
Look in the Q poll internals.
And changed the balance of power exactly zero.....
“And this is the key thing for me...Cruz is a Constitutional Conservative. Even if I believed Trump and his goals for our country, is there anything about him that communicates small government conservative?
Is there any reason to believe he’d not simply continue the trend of increasing power to the Executive? That he’d not use the same line Obama does, that we can’t wait for Congress to pass laws so he has to do it himself?
I honestly believe that, should this happen, our Republic is truly lost because we would have forever baked in a super charged Executive that writes laws and issues edicts and the chances of pulling back on that once the GOP electorate embraces it are nil.”
This!^^^^ A “super charged executive”(i.e., King George) is why the US exists in the first place. Go Cruz! Roll back big federal power!
Failure to agree with your “Hail Mary” rationalizations does not constitute either “mindless” nor an “attack.”
Chuckle!
I’d advise you to look up what Ted Cruz did at the FTC, and the impact of the cases he won at the US Supreme Court as Solicitor General of Texas.
Really? So what do you see as the prevailing criticism of Trump as opposed to Cruz on the part of their respective supporters?
What I see is every conceivable permutation of Trump "fooling" weak conservatives vs. Cruz questionable votes and lack of popular support....
Agreed. It also means that even if one of these two doesn't come out on top (with 50% of the delegates)...that a brokered convention would be absolute bedlam since the combined support of these two will likely be near 60%. If the GOP-E decides to side with 20% of the primary voters...it's open rebellion (more so than it is right now)...and a Trump/Cruz indie ticket would have a shot...
Changing their minds is a pale shadow to making them irrelevant.
It is a great tribute to Ted Cruz that he has been able to withstand McConnell's ire.
It is a greater tribute to Trump's acumen that he has been able to turn McConnell's ire into a benefit.
Your second paragraph pretty much kills any objectivity claimed as your own in the first
I look around here and I see Cruz folks hating Trump at least five to one more than the opposite scenario
Most of us I think prefer one or the other or both
I don’t think I’ve seen but one Trump girl here saying she’d never support Cruz
Whereas I’ve seen dozens Cruz folks say they’d never support Trump
No more Bushes!
And Cruz has a “solid base” of 10, according to your math. Good to know.
*************
Yes, that’s true. I wasn’t trying to be confrontational. I merely addressed the poll finding that you cited...the calculation would be Trump 15-18%, Cruz 10% as to solid support. I guess-tinated, didn’t actually calculate.
However, as I indicated, the current numbers are irrelevant to me. For Cruz, there were many positives that stem from the promulgation of that poll- as I’m sure you know, so I won’t list them.
Certainly though, Trump is still in the lead... no question.
Cruz supporters are die-hard conservatives. If you believe these numbers showing him neck and neck with Clinton that would means he has to be getting democrat support. That sir, is a joke. You don’t get anymore conservative than Ted Cruz and there will be no democrat cross-overs to him if he did run against Clinton. Trump could get his fair share of democrats off the jobs he says he’ll bring back to the United States. I see no way Cruz could win a general election against the wicked witch. Trump could.
And you don't seem to understand that if I have to "look up what Ted Cruz did," his impact has been exactly nothing.
“Most of us I think prefer one or the other or both
I don’t think I’ve seen but one Trump girl here saying she’d never support Cruz
Whereas I’ve seen dozens Cruz folks say they’d never support Trump”
Put me in the camp of either. Cruz is my first choice but Trump is most definitely a very close second. I would be very happy with either or both(?).
And certainly Cruz is surging. This will be a great test for Trump. Carson was not really a serious challenge. If he is to be president, Trump will need to beat Cruz in a couple of head to head matches, not just bury him in an avalanche, because there will be states in the general election that will be contested on the ground, city by city. Both men need to be ready.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.