Posted on 12/18/2015 1:48:25 PM PST by VinL
Florida Republican Primary voters continue to be fake as hell. They're letting the men they elected at one point to serve as our senator and governor linger in polls of their home state. In the first poll of Florida Republicans taking since this week's debate, it turns out that our state's GOP voters still have a thing for ol' Helmet Hair but now have a growing fondness for Texas-brand Rubio, Ted Cruz.
The survey, conducted by Opinion Savvy and sponsored by the Jacksonville Times-Union and Fox 13 Tampa Bay, called up 555 registered Republicans in Florida on Wednesday.
Here's the breakdown:
Donald Trump: 29.7 percent Ted Cruz: 20.4 percent Marco Rubio: 15 percent Jeb Bush: 12.5 percent Ben Carson: 7.7 percent Chris Christie: 6.1 percent Carly Fiorina: 2.7 percent Rand Paul: 2.6 percent John Kasich: 0.9 percent Rick Santorum: 0.1 percent George Pataki: 0.1 percent
(Literally just one person each said they'd vote for Santorum or Pataki.)
ust 2.2 percent said they remained undecided.
Trump continues to do well with his whackadoo rhetoric in Florida.
48.3 percent of Florida Republicans say they "strongly approve" of his call to temporarily ban all Muslims who are not residents from entering the United States. 24.2 percent say they "somewhat approve." Just 23.3 percent say they strongly or somewhat disapprove.
Cruz has surged in Florida in the past month. In the last Opinion Savvy Poll, taken on November 11, he was sitting at just 12 percent. His surge appears to be at the expense of Ben Carson (who is down from 22 percent in November). There's also waning enthusiasm in the state for our own Senator Marco Rubio. He was at 18 percent in the November poll.
Jeb Bush is actually doing a bit better since November. Back then he was at 11 percent.
Cruz is also now leading Hispanic Republicans in the state at 22.1 percent. Though Rubio isn't far away at 21.0 percent. Donald Trump, despite his anti-Mexican rhetoric, polls at 20.8 percent among Hispanics. Bush, who used to have a lock on the state's Hispanic Republican population, is now at 15. 9 percent.
Interestingly, Rubio has the biggest gender gap when it comes to his supporters. 19.6 percent of female Republicans in Florida support Rubio. Just 10.2 percent of men do.
In an odd question, the poll also asked Florida's Democrats who they'd like to see as the GOP nominee.
37.3 percent say they want Trump — perhaps because he seems to be the easiest to beat. 18.5 percent say they want Bush, perhaps because he seems the most palpable to Democrats out of the lot.
So why is Cruz surging? Well, 25.8 percent of those who watched the debate claimed he won. That's compared to Trump at 23.8 percent.
Meanwhile, 30.8 said Bush lost the debate. He was followed by Kasich; 13.5 percent said he lost the debate.
I take all of them seriously. The problem is, all of Cruz’s support seems to be coming from Carson’s fall. So the two are merely exchanging second place. But in the five polls released since the “shock” DMR poll, Trump is back in front in IA in two, ahead huge in GA, SC, and NH in the other three. That’s not counting the four-five national polls where he maintains his 10-15 point lead and climbs into the mid 30s.
Cruz will pick up most of the Huckabee, Santorum, Rubio, Carson, Fiorina and Paul voters when they inevitably drop out, just as he did with Walker and Perry.
Cruz will pick up most of the Huckabee, Santorum, Rubio, Carson, Fiorina and Paul voters when they inevitably drop out, just as he did with Walker and Perry.
Rubio chickens out on Senate Budget vote.
Bush had is ass handed to him during the debates.
The sands are going to start shifting very quickly as these events and other candidates dropping out force realignment of loyalties.
As long as Cruz and/or Trump are in the lead with the other in 2nd place, I don’t concern myself much with the polling results at this stage of the campaign. But I do like to see the GOPe candidates (e.g., Yeb Bush and Little Marco Rubio) place WAY below Trump & Cruz. Let’s deny the GOPe as many delegates as possible.
Yep, Cruz seems to be gradually, inexorably creeping up towards the top of the pack! And this poll is of registered Republicans, not likely primary voters. Among likely voters, Cruz may be doing even better.
Rush was talking yesterday about the fact that a couple of GOP establishment types are thinking Cruz is their only hope to stop Trump. That should terrify everyone in the Cruz campaign, because it means they are pretty sure they can take Ted out.
“...Interestingly, Rubio has the biggest gender gap when it comes to his supporters. 19.6 percent of female Republicans in Florida support Rubio. Just 10.2 percent of men do....”
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Perhaps Florida women are more forgiving of being materially deceived by a man.
TRUMP will pick up most of the Huckabee, Santorum, Rubio, Carson, Fiorina and Paul voters when they inevitably drop out, just as he did with Walker and Perry
I appreciate your analysis on all of the various ebbs and flows in this race. You bring a rational perspective to everything going on here.
In an odd question, the poll also asked Florida’s Democrats who they’d like to see as the GOP nominee.
37.3 percent say they want Trump  perhaps because he seems to be the easiest to beat. 18.5 percent say they want Bush, perhaps because he seems the most palpable to Democrats out of the lot.
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Check this without the editorializing. I wouldn’t find it surprising at all.
No bias there. Just straight news reporting./s
As for where "X's" voters will go, it's anyone's guess. You can bet that there is more than a little "who I hate most" going on in determining who to vote for. It's sort of like Rush's "Operation Chaos" a couple of years ago.
But if Trump continues to have these very stately, statesmanlike debates where he looks presidential while everyone else quibbles, he will quickly attract a lot of people who have concerns about his braggadocio.
Trump hater Jonah Goldberg finally had to admit in a column that Rush read today that in fact the Dems need to be very worried about Trump-—that he runs a completely unconventional campaign, is fearless, and will viciously attack. Goldberg basically concluded that he would whup Hillary’s sizable posterior. And that had to REALLY hurt coming from RINO Goldberg.
“Rush was talking yesterday about the fact that a couple of GOP establishment types are thinking Cruz is their only hope to stop Trump. That should terrify everyone in the Cruz campaign, because it means they are pretty sure they can take Ted out.”
And Cruz supporters should be mad that the GOPe would rather have him. It means they think Ted can be bought by the donors or party bosses. I’m not sure he can’t, so I switched. He is weak on illegal immigration, even after seeing how the people reward a strong conservative approach.
I'm with you - freeze 'em out...
“Trump hater Jonah Goldberg finally had to admit in a column that Rush read today that in fact the Dems need to be very worried about Trump-—that he runs a completely unconventional campaign, is fearless, and will viciously attack. Goldberg basically concluded that he would whup Hillary’s sizable posterior. And that had to REALLY hurt coming from RINO Goldberg.”
Trump will say things nobody else has the courage to say. He’s already brought up the people Hillary was responsible for getting killed.
We knew Jonah back in the days when his mother was a Freeper, so his defection to the GOPee is particularly regrettable. Maybe he can come back to the fold.
Probably going to soar more now that Rubio just shot himself in the foot by not showing up for work, again, today.
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