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Trump's Biggest Obstacle (Poll Numbers Explanation)
Larry J Sabato's Crystal Ball ^ | 2015-12-17 | Alfred J Tuchfarber

Posted on 12/17/2015 7:49:50 PM PST by parksstp

Last week’s Crystal Ball repeated its refrain that Donald Trump is very unlikely to get the Republican presidential nomination. However, it issued the caveat that “[i]t would be easier to make our argument if we could explain precisely how and by whom the real estate tycoon will be dethroned.”

Who can and will defeat Trump? The answer is obvious, but also not obvious because the question seems to beg the name of another candidate. The “who” that will defeat Trump is not another candidate but is most likely to be the Republican voters who actually turn out in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and the other contests.

(Excerpt) Read more at centerforpolitics.org ...


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Culture/Society; Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: 2016; alieninvasion; aliens; buildthewall; cruz; deportthemall; elections; endanchorbabies; endsanctuarycities; enforcethelaw; gop; illegalaliens; immigration; infiltrators; invaders; islam; jihad; koran; moratorium; muslim; musliminvasion; sendthemback; sharia; terror; trojanhorse; trump; trumpwasright
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To: parksstp; All

Trump chumpions better wise up. After stopping for a bite at a local restaurant and over hearing a group of women dissing Trump. The intensity of their comments amazed me. I come away convinced that is one group of voters Trump is not going to get.


21 posted on 12/17/2015 8:18:55 PM PST by mosesdapoet (My best insights get lost in FR's because of meaningless venting no one reads.)
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To: SmokingJoe

Get your head out of the sand for God’s sake. Trump will prevail. Get your tissues ready.


22 posted on 12/17/2015 8:18:56 PM PST by toddausauras ( Leftplosion.)
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To: onyx

Yebito can’t even get his campaign staff! excited for him.

His post-debate party looked like a wake.

Yeah he’ll be President as soon as I’m loaded with money.


23 posted on 12/17/2015 8:18:59 PM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: goldstategop

Jeb will get the votes of his family ... LOL.


24 posted on 12/17/2015 8:21:03 PM PST by onyx
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To: mosesdapoet

I am a woman and Trump gets my vote.
You must have overheard libtards.


25 posted on 12/17/2015 8:22:17 PM PST by onyx
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To: parksstp; All

The big unmeasurable is how many “Non-Traditional Voters” will come out to vote for Trump, that otherwise wouldn’t be interested in voting. The same reason that Obama was able to prevail in so many previously “Safe” Hillary States.


26 posted on 12/17/2015 8:23:40 PM PST by tcrlaf (They told me it could never happen in America. And then it did....)
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To: SmokingJoe
That means you accept that Trump will lost to Hilary Clinton by 10% come November 2016 yes? Cause that’s how much Trump is losing to Hilary Clinton by according to NBC’s latest polls.

That fight has not really started yet. and there are dynamics that will be in play when it does that are not there now. Hillary's negative charisma is likely to hurt her more and more as the general public gets exposed to her debating and talking policy. The Republicans will be less divided than they are now behind whoever their candidate is...not saying totally united, but less divided. If Trump gets the nod, I think there will be some preference cascade in his favor due to some people moving him mentally from the eccentric egotist to the actual candidate category mentally. Not everyone has figured out if they are "allowed" to vote for Trump in a social sense...

27 posted on 12/17/2015 8:26:34 PM PST by AndyTheBear
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To: tcrlaf

Trump’s biggest appeal is to blue collar working class Americans.

The same kind of Reagan Democrats who voted for Reagan.

What’s funny is the GOP has coveted these voters and now lashes out at the one man who can win ‘em.

Its suicidal and I’d sooner see the GOP die than see our country gone.


28 posted on 12/17/2015 8:28:05 PM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: mosesdapoet

I’m a woman and I know 3 other woman who are voting for him.


29 posted on 12/17/2015 8:30:40 PM PST by CaptainK (...please make it stop. Shake a can of pennies at it.)
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To: goldstategop

I never said that Trump is not the favorite. I am only saying that the future is not ours to know, and it is best to be prepared for the inexpected.


30 posted on 12/17/2015 8:31:11 PM PST by John Valentine (Deep in the Heart of Texas)
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To: mosesdapoet

Trump chumpions better wise up. After stopping for a bite at a local restaurant and over hearing a group of women dissing Trump. The intensity of their comments amazed me. I come away convinced that is one group of voters Trump is not going to get.


Well, there you go. He might as well as pack it in now.


31 posted on 12/17/2015 8:32:00 PM PST by ripnbang ("An armed man is a citizen, an unarmed man a subject")
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To: ripnbang

Liberal women won’t vote for him.

We’ll wait and see what voters decide next year.


32 posted on 12/17/2015 8:37:00 PM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: mosesdapoet

I’m the Cruz fan of the Family and have talked him up for years to anyone who would listen.

My Apolitical Wife is 100% Trump and has not wavered.

I am seeing a person that shrugged anytime I mentioned Politics turn into someone who will set anyone straight about the importance of the upcoming Election should the subject come up.

She thinks Politicians are the Disease and Trump is the Cure, with apologies to Sylvester Stallone.

Dollars to Donuts those same Women you listened to wouldn’t give Cruz the Time of Day.


33 posted on 12/17/2015 8:37:22 PM PST by Kickass Conservative (Obama, unable to call a Spade a Spade...)
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To: SmokingJoe

December 1979: Reagan 32%, Carter 62%


34 posted on 12/17/2015 8:39:05 PM PST by Jim Noble (Diseases desperate grown Are by desperate appliance relieved Or not at al)
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To: tflabo
Don't be misled by crowds. Many people go out of curiosity and are not necessarily committed to even vote. Remember, Santorum was fourth in the polls, four years ago and won by 9 votes.

You can't poll for a caucus...it is impossible

The one thing I have noticed over and over in numerous articles is that many of Trump's supporters are not the normal caucus or primary voters. It's really good he is attracting more people, but no one can predict if these same people will show up at a caucus. We will find out soon.

35 posted on 12/17/2015 8:42:21 PM PST by Dave W
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To: goldstategop

Mittens came in second in the Iowa caucus...just to let you know that no one could touch him.


36 posted on 12/17/2015 8:45:22 PM PST by Dave W
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To: Dave W

Crowds are not a prediction.

Romney had good-sized crowds in the days leading to the 2012 general election.

He lost.


37 posted on 12/17/2015 8:45:49 PM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: goldstategop

Yes, I agree. I think you are responding to another post, not mine, but you are correct.


38 posted on 12/17/2015 8:49:53 PM PST by Dave W
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To: Dave W

Santorum had a great chance in 2012, but he couldn’t overcome the losses in NH, FL, and SC. When he started winning, it was small states with few delegates and most weren’t winner-take-all. He couldn’t even get on his home state of VA ballot. I don’t think he won a single large state, did he?


39 posted on 12/17/2015 8:49:55 PM PST by Theodore R. (Liberals keep winning; so the American people must now be all-liberal all the time.)
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To: toddausauras

So far, Trump has never won any elections in his life. And this is not the first time he is running for president. Reform Party anyone?


40 posted on 12/17/2015 8:50:27 PM PST by SmokingJoe ( .)
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