You can't poll for a caucus...it is impossible
The one thing I have noticed over and over in numerous articles is that many of Trump's supporters are not the normal caucus or primary voters. It's really good he is attracting more people, but no one can predict if these same people will show up at a caucus. We will find out soon.
Crowds are not a prediction.
Romney had good-sized crowds in the days leading to the 2012 general election.
He lost.
Santorum had a great chance in 2012, but he couldn’t overcome the losses in NH, FL, and SC. When he started winning, it was small states with few delegates and most weren’t winner-take-all. He couldn’t even get on his home state of VA ballot. I don’t think he won a single large state, did he?
Many people go out of curiosity and are not necessarily committed to even vote.
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You obviously haven’t been to one of Trump’s rallies.
i’d sooner have a bowl movement than show up at a caucus. we have primary elections in the rest of the world. you know your mind you go and vote. i wouldn’t attend something where i had to listen to other people help me make up my mind about a candidate. sounds very socialist to me. i think there are others here that can demonstrate that iowa does mean squat in the primaries. i think santorum won iowa and that is all. i would say crowds mean enthusiasm. whoever they are. they go to an event and are vocal. to me they would appear to be people that would walk around the block and vote as well. and i could be wrong.