Who Turned My Blue State Red? (NYT)

New York Times ^ | November 20, 2015 | By ALEC MacGILLIS

[Brad from Tennessee]

IT is one of the central political puzzles of our time: Parts of the country that depend on the safety-net programs supported by Democrats are increasingly voting for Republicans who favor shredding that net. From Our Advertisers

In his successful bid for the Senate in 2010, the libertarian Rand Paul railed against “intergenerational welfare” and said that “the culture of dependency on government destroys people’s spirits,” yet racked up winning margins in eastern Kentucky, a former Democratic stronghold that is heavily dependent on public benefits. Last year, Paul R. LePage, the fiercely anti-welfare Republican governor of Maine, was re-elected despite a highly erratic first term — with strong support in struggling towns where many rely on public assistance. And earlier this month, Kentucky elected as governor a conservative Republican who had vowed to largely undo the Medicaid expansion that had given the state the country’s largest decrease in the uninsured under Obamacare, with roughly one in 10 residents gaining coverage.

It’s enough to give Democrats the willies as they contemplate a map where the red keeps seeping outward, confining them to ever narrower redoubts of blue. The temptation for coastal liberals is to shake their heads over those godforsaken white-working-class provincials who are voting against their own interests.

But this reaction misses the complexity of the political dynamic that’s taken hold in these parts of the country. It misdiagnoses the Democratic Party’s growing conundrum with working-class white voters. And it also keeps us from fully grasping what’s going on in communities where conditions have deteriorated to the point where researchers have detected alarming trends in their mortality rates.

In eastern Kentucky and other former Democratic bastions that have swung Republican in the past several decades. . .

[okie01]

Actually, the networks used to use red for the incumbent party and blue for the challenging party.

It was the opposite. Blue = incumbent. Red = challenger.

[bigredkitty1]

That’s because the working class is tired of working so the welfare class can sit on their assets all day long watching Jerry Springer.

[SC_Pete]

Eastern Kentucky: The EPA has destroyed the coal industry. The people there would rather have a good paying job than be on welfare and food stamps. Pretty simple to understand unless you are a Libturd.

[Redmen4ever]

The electoral college map has been very consistent since 1976. The state house map has been evolving: states like Kentucky that voted Republican in Presidential elections, starting voting Republican in Congressional elections, and are now also voting Republican in state elections.

To examine things in further detail, the blue states have been becoming more blue. California used to be within reach in a big Republican year. On the other hand, numerous purple states have been drifting red. Iowa looks pretty much like a red state. Wisconsin and Pennsylvania look like possibilities. The one purple state that has been drifting blue is Virginia. And, yes, the reason for these changes is that the Democrats have lost the middle-class white vote.

In 2012, Carl Rove promulgated the “and 1” strategy: the McCain states + Indiana and North Carolina + Florida, Ohio and Virginia + one more state (if pressed, the “and 1” state was Colorado). Romney won the McCain states and he won Indiana and North Carolina. That was it. To update Rove’s model, we can start with the Romney states and recognize there is no way we can win without Florida. After that, we have a now of options and don’t have to worry about threading the needle.

[fella]

Dependantcy is the progressives way of saying slavery.

[exDemMom]

Parts of the country that depend on the safety-net programs supported by Democrats are increasingly voting for Republicans who favor shredding that net.

Maybe it's because those programs are not "safety-nets" so much as they are millstones tied around the necks of the poor, keeping them downtrodden and dependent on the government for everything. It is a horrific thing to not only keep subsidizing poverty, but to disincentivize poor people so that they have no ambition to strive for better lives.

Democrats dehumanize people for their votes. Conservative Republicans encourage everyone to reach their potential.

[Chode]

yeah, but i think the L$M had more than a little bit to do with the RATS glomming onto blue and shedding the Commie RED... where as i'm PROUD of my REDNECK!!!

[definitelynotaliberal]

This line gives me the chills every time I read it,

[napscoordinator]

We can say the same thing about Virginia.....Why changed our red state blue? We just cannot lose another state or we are done. I still worry about the Presidential race regardless of the nominee due to the Democrats having such an advantage in the electoral college.

[Elsie]

There is something profoundly immoral about our welfare state.

Are you still killing your unborn?

-- GOD

 

[Elsie]

We just cannot lose another state or we are done.

Nope.

We HAVE to get the propaganda machines back:

Schools, radio, TV, newsprint and most of all if you want the youth vote - 'social' media.

[FreedomPoster]

Thank you!

This happened in the 2000 election. The press as a group, all at once, flipped the color scheme. Red had been the color associated with the Left since Marx, or at least the late 1800s.

I have to wonder if it wasn’t coordinated with something like the JournaList email list server.

[IronJack]

There is something profoundly immoral about our welfare state.

As Rand pointed out, welfare truly is a moral issue. It is wrong to care for someone who is too worthless to care for themselves.

[Red Badger]

IT is one of the central political puzzles of our time: Parts of the country that depend on the safety-net programs supported by Democrats are increasingly voting for Republicans who favor shredding that net.

It's only a 'puzzle' to liberals at the NYT, and elsewhere. they DO NOT understand, nor can they ever, why MOST people DO NOT WANT TO BE on welfare. IT IS A FORM OF SLAVERY, and SLAVERY is NOT A CONDITION PEOPLE WANT TO BE IN................

[The Toll]

Uh....Did they miss the part were the Democrats came out of the closet as the Kill Whitey party?

[Impy]

More “poor whites are voting against their self interest” garbage. Any White person would have to be an idiot or insane to vote democrat, while that’s true for everyone, it’s especially so for White people.

[Chode]

that'd be my guess

[SauronOfMordor]

Working class whites see their jobs taken by immigrants, Section 8 people moving into their neighborhoods and destroying property values and the schools, and they cant afford college for their kids (while blacks get affirmative action financial aid)

Do not be surprised if whites leave the Dems in 2016.

[Clintonfatigued]

Obama and his minions did, by forcing policies on people against their will. Political Correctness, the Nanny State, and a Blame America foreign policy is more than they are willing to stand.

Even more than George W. Bush helped Obama get elected (accidentally), Barack Obama may help Donald Trump get elected by revulsion against his policies.

[Wallace T.]

The Democrats abandoned the white working class for a coalition of urban elite metrosexuals, minorities, both racial and religious, and government employees years ago. If white Christian Americans voted in the 70-80% range for Republicans, as they do in most of the South, it would be game over for the Democrats. Fortunately for them. the RINO faction of the GOP sufficiently alienates enough potential voters to keep them in power.