Posted on 10/12/2015 5:44:24 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
A reader writes, “Everyone says Donald Trump can’t win. Exactly why not?”
David Leonhardt, editor for The Upshot, considers the question:
Can Donald Trump win the Republican nomination? Sure, it’s within the realm of plausibility; he’s now been leading the polls for months, after all. But it seems highly unlikely because it would violate just about every historical pattern of presidential races.
No modern candidate has received a major-party nomination — and perhaps no candidate in American history — while being opposed by the party’s elites: donors, media figures, politicians and others.
Elite support matters because they have the ability to shape public opinion through endorsements, public criticism and other means. Many voters don’t follow campaigns very closely. They don’t dig through position papers or watch hours upon hours of debates. They’re influenced by what they hear.
In every recent Republican presidential campaign, a couple of contenders — often with resumes atypical of a serious candidate — have shot to the top of the early polls, only to fade as they face scrutiny and criticism. What’s fascinating about Mr. Trump is that he has, if anything, endured harsher criticism, and yet he has also remained atop the polls for longer.
Perhaps Republican primary voters have grown so fed up with the country and their party that they’re willing to dismiss the collective opinion of Republican elites (which now seems to favor Marco Rubio or Jeb Bush). But it really would be unprecedented for the party to nominate someone like Mr. Trump, Ben Carson or Carly Fiorina....
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
Simple - TDS crazy.
The more “THE ELITES” run their corrupt, mealy-mouths, the more “ordinary” people like Trump. F the elites.
An army maybe. Cruise missiles, not so sure.
There are only X number of cruise missiles and they are very expensive. They’re not going to be used against rank-and-file insurgents.
One can gin up a poll to prove just about anything.
That said even if it were honest, it just shows how some people can dig in against a convenient object of hatred based on their own pride until the obvious is glowing white hot under their noses. And it takes a lot less than a Trump to do that too.
No the establishment needs to be rocked to its knees, it lost its way 100 years ago, and has been ever more increasingly commie. We freed the slaves and then TR brought the cancer of Fabian socialist to the usa and taught Hitler how to exterminate the jews and gypsys. Republicans have much to celebrate, and apologize for. But being a little less of a commie then the democommies is not going to work.
The party’s base hasn’t been this pizzed off before.
Just plain old American people haven’t been. Obama has piled up so much negative karma. Up comes someone who is credibly offering to sock all that right in the nose like a WWE rassler, and that someone is accepted. Even before he grows into the role, which is happening as we watch. Pretty soon only the proud doctrinaires, of those who want to see the Obama work of evil undone, are still going to be sitting pouting at Trump.
1988...Robertson finishes 2nd in Iowa. Outsider, yes, but didn’t lead in the national polls like Trump has. Dole puts up a challenge before Bush 41 takes over.
1992...Buchanan puts up a stronger challenge than expected vs. Bush 41.
1996..OK, maybe Steve Forbes is somewhat like Trump (never held office)...for that matter Buchanan hadn’t either. Bob Dole eventually takes over.
2000...Bush dominates with a mild challenge from McCain.
2007...Giuliani led in many polls
2008...Huckabee wins Iowa, Romney does well before McCain takes over.
2012...Santorum, Gingrich, Paul do well before Romney takes over.
A parallel event would look like Jeb! elbowing Trump out.
But this time, the front runner really does have momentum.
and that’s why trump can trump the gope. he’s not spending $ may very well get the AFL-CIO support, and could easily keep himself on the tube with out spending $, while letting small $ pick up local ads. The anger of the electorate could focus a micro local turnout response. We’re in a completely uncharted water.
The Democrats have so far been extremely good at playing the local game.
If Donald’s operatives can take a page out of that book, watch out.
>>>Does he want to?<<<
Why would Trump be Running for POTUS while exposing his Personal and and Business Financials to his Competitors, putting up with all the BS from the TDS Crowd in the Media (and elsewhere), all the while spending Millions of his own Dollars if he didn’t want to?
I am a Cruz supporter asking you the question.
Your question is illogical, at least to me.
David needs the updated version of Rules of The Game.
The old one doesn’t account for a Trump factor.
may be true but he still has to pay attention to his business interests globally. Thus while he can sound like hes off the rails in the end he needs to govern to promote economic growth. That’s true for the USA as well as the ME and other global areas. As long as he promotes his personal global interest, he’s promoting ours as well.
Looks like he is just going to have to win it without you.
Pray America wakes
It appears disfranchised blacks are breaking free of the Democrat juggernaut and are aligning with TRUMP. This may be a real game changer in the primaries and the general election.
“Over 60% say that they would not vote for Trump under any circumstances.”
Where does Jeb! rate in that poll, he’s my never-ever candidate.
Actually there is a lot of legislation bottled in the house because the orange crybaby won’t allow it to be moved. He also blew off the pedophile hastered rule that unless 50% of the caucus was yes it wouldn’t be brought to the floor. If the umpalumpa had retained the hastered rule, a lot of the damage bath house barry has done would not have happened.
Yeah, the last time the party grandees lost control and got stuck with a candidate picked by the rubes Ronald Reagan somehow slipped through into the presidency.
Couldn’t let something like that happen again!
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