Is it True Donald Trump Cannot Win the Presidency?

Not true. My sister did not vote for McQueeg or Romney. It was Obama all the way. Trump won her over on 2 issues...protect her social security and deporting all illegals.

yippeekiyiyay. rely on democrats and either you lose, or you lose

"First, Respect. You and I differ here, which is highly unusual. I know you to be a stalwart Conservative - But I think you are misled in this instance...

As Conservatives are wont to do, I will retire to his record - What he's done is what he is - And I doubt very highly that you will try to defend him by his record. If you care to try, bring it."

I do know there are some here (some close friendly FReepers) who genuinely worry that there's nothing "Conservative" to Trump. This is the danger with candidates that have no record in office that you can't swiftly judge them. I used to believe that there should be some prior political office experience before one becomes President, but I think in a few instances can be waived given the individual (although generally that would be towards one whom has served in a high military position, one whom has served in an executive capacity in the business world presiding over large numbers of employees, which would be comparable to a Governor, would get a pass - so that's where Trump gets the OK from me as a basic qualifier).

"His historic position is undoubtedly at least center left, and that, IMHO, is being kind. He makes for good copy, which is enough to get him much exposure - But I wonder how much of his fame is exactly by design, with all this bombast (to ridiculous heights) taking the air away from those who rightly deserve the Conservative mantle... Hoping perhaps that his tantrums blow all the steam out of the population before it has any effect on the election. I consider him to be exactly that sort of stalking horse. He is pushing every single button."

As to the issue of legit Conservatives, Cruz remains really the only one. The rest are almost non-starters to the last. I watch Cruz to see how he deals with the Trump "issue", and that is telling to me. He does not consider him to be either a threat to "the cause" or to himself (meaning that if Cruz comes up short in the race, if Trump is the nominee, he knows this is a positive development in achieving our goals). As I've said many times, I tend to take a look at those most opposed to Conservatism and their reaction to given candidates. The utter hysteria by the political establishment confirms my conclusions that if Trump was a leftist, you'd hear nary a peep from them, except to praise him.

I'll say again that Trump has already gone too far with his candidacy. He can't stuff the genie back in the bottle and go back to where he was before at this point. If he weren't serious about where he stands and the positions he has taken, there's no way he'd have gone this far. He's burned his bridges with the elites. If he does so with the people that support him now, he'll be the biggest pariah this country has ever seen. It makes no logical sense.

"As to his determination to win, I am not sure of that at all - If he succeeds in wearing out the Conservative, and then stays in, I may be forced to cede to your position.

However, even if that is the case, and he obtains the nomination, How does he stand any better chance than Romney in the general? Nobody is paying attention right now, so he gets the benefit of the doubt - But do you really think the Christian Right is going to go to the wall for him once they find out his historic positions? What does he offer to DEFCONS? He is in exactly the same place as Romney, with about the same things to offer FICONS (which actually isn't much), and nothing to offer, or worse, opposition to, the other factions... He's got nuthin' for Conservatives."

Because he motivates not only many in the Conservative base, but also those outside of it in a way we haven't seen since Reagan. When you look at the fact a recent poll showed him getting 25% of the Black vote (which the Democrats cannot afford to bleed off that much), it shows this is a candidate with wider appeal beyond the usual cast of characters and could begin to stage a generational realignment. Trump is serious about going after the votes of non-traditional Republicans, and is showing legitimacy in being able to do just that (and even better, not by pandering, which got us precisely nowhere).

It also isn't a matter of if he'll come in on a Conservative platform on government spending, he'll simply HAVE to be, since we'll be at or above $20 trillion in debt (not even counting unfunded liabilities that run into over a hundred billion, if not hundreds). He knows that is unsustainable without an economic crash of biblical proportions (the ultimate end of Zero's Cloward-Piven strategy). So right there he's got something. He's also intent on bringing back jobs from overseas. I take him at his word. I won't use the word "trust", since anyone who trusts someone running for any office is a fool, only that I will give him the benefit of the doubt until he proves otherwise. That's really all you can do as a voter.

"And finally, supposing he gets elected without the Christians, Defense/foreign policy conservatives, and the libertarian/civil conservatives, how in fact shall he govern? According to his electioneering, or according to his record? I won't take that chance. I think he will be every bit the tyrant that we have now. But he's 'our' tyrant, eh?"

Well, if he doesn't get their vote, he can't be nominated given the rest of the field, let alone win a general election. Frankly, too, a lot of us are sick and tired of gutless weasels that the GOP runs and elects time and time again. As soon as the elites and the leftist media says "Boo !" they wet their underpants and go hide in the corner. He's the first grown-up candidate in over 3 decades that tells the media and the elites what they can go do with themselves and makes them wet their underpants and cower in the corner. That the (Conservative) GOP ever reached the point that they would be cowered for being right by the left (whom have destroyed this country over countless decades) in the first place is appalling. The proper response to the thugs of the left is to treat them like bullies and knock their soft teeth down their whiny throats (as ex-Sen. George Allen once said, before he forgot his own mantra). I want a strong leader, we NEED a strong leader. We've gone decades without a real one, and it has dovetailed with our rapid cultural decline and diminishment amongst the rest of the world.

"Nah - I won't vote for that, even if Cruz would accept VP... Anymore than I would vote for McQueeg, just because he started waiving Palin around."

The only reason I could stomach voting for that... thing... in 2008 was with the fervent hope that he would keel over from the stress of the job. I've already repudiated that vote since I couldn't believe he'd still be around in almost 2016. Of course, any discussion of Trump is academic, pro or con, until we absolutely see him in action beginning in January 2017. If he is as bad as you say, you will have been right. If he is what I think he has the potential to be, we could be on the cusp of electing a truly great individual to the Presidency again, someone whom can begin to restore what's been lost. I mean, if he accomplishes one thing, that being deportation of illegals, that will make him the best President in my lifetime. Even Reagan botched that one with amnesty, which was arguably his worst action as President, since that paved the way for the millions of invaders since thinking they could take advantage of us.

I think also you miss something very interesting about Trump. It is well known that, at least in the short term, he doesn't back down and can't be bullied back out of a position. A GREAT example of this is the Bush-planted woman at "No Labels" who asked the abortion question in a room full of lefties and he said "I'm pro-life. Ok? I'm pro-life." Then moved on.

It would have been VERY easy for a "moderate" to start backpedaling there but Trump didn't.

If you look at EVERY position he has brought up in the last year, with the exception of Kelo, he has moved right and sometimes very far right. No one with his kind of lead does this. They are already starting to appeal to the "broader electorate"--- but not Trump. Now, it would be reasonable to say "he's an opportunist" but if do he is the only opportunist I have seen who risks his own money and reputation like this. A more likely assessment is that he has moved---and is still moving---to the right, much like Reagan did from 1950-64. Reagan moved in large part due to the research he did on the GE tours, as well as what he heard from ordinary people at the plants. I am thinking Trump has gotten a very similar education through the campaign itself.

In short, I think Trump is doing in condensed fashion what RR did in terms of growing into a bona fide conservative.

I thought I pointed out that he doesn’t cower when the media or elites go after him. ;-D

If you look at EVERY position he has brought up in the last year [...] he has moved right and sometimes very far right. [...] much like Reagan did from 1950-64. Reagan moved in large part due to the research he did on the GE tours, as well as what he heard from ordinary people at the plants. I am thinking Trump has gotten a very similar education through the campaign itself.

In short, I think Trump is doing in condensed fashion what RR did in terms of growing into a bona fide conservative.

My question to you, LS, is how you feel you can qualify real, genuine growth in the direction of conservatism as different from mere electioneering without any serious proof? Back in the day, you or I would sneer at such promises made on the stump, with little to back them up.

I mean, Reagan is incontestable - But that is because of more than a decade of thought put into action - You can see his mind changing, not only in the record of the media, but also in the record of his actions. By the time I was asked to vote for Reagan, I had a very predictable guarantee of his actions being true-blue. It is that record, more than his speeches, that made me very comfortable puling the lever for him.

How is it that I can find a similar guarantee of Trump's words?

There are never guarantees, anywhere. Did you know that even until the end of his life, RR never badmouthed FDR himself? He always thought FDR was a "good guy" and that the policies were wrong. RR's transition may have taken a decade . . . but it may have been very much quicker. The evidence in his SAG union leadership days, for example, suggests that he shifted his positions on many issues in foreign policy very quickly.

I think the best guarantee you have that Trump's positions are genuine is that given a chance to "pander" on an issue like Kelo, Trump once again said what he believed, that "eminent domain is a great thing." I know what he meant by that, but still it's nothing a conservative likes to hear. But by NOT saying what "people want to hear," I think it's clear that in fact he is speaking from his heart.

No one will know this, perhaps for years, but I think Trump had a very real "come to Jesus" moment early in his campaign. He said many times he was going to run on jobs, but the immigration thing kept coming up. I think once he got into the destructiveness of illegal immigration, it began to widen his perspective of every other issue. It drove him more and more toward a middle class perspective.

As for a long history of saying things, well, the one thing he has said for years and hasn't backtracked on was that he opposed the Iraq war. I thought it was absolutely necessary given the potential of WMDs there, but once again, he did so on the grounds that the ME was more stable with the dictators in power and that America needed to use its military power more selectively (but he is hardly anti-military). So in a number of things I think he is genuine and I don't ever get a sense he is saying anything to "appear" conservative.

It's ironic because as of now, Ted Cruz aside, Trump's stated positions and position papers on guns, immigration and taxes are more conservative than anyone else out there.

I do know there are some here (some close friendly FReepers) who genuinely worry that there's nothing "Conservative" to Trump. This is the danger with candidates that have no record in office that you can't swiftly judge them.

I would point out that we have twenty years of public life, both in business and quasi-political, quasi pop-star fame to draw from too... He has made quite a record in the media.

I used to believe that there should be some prior political office experience before one becomes President, but I think in a few instances can be waived given the individual (although generally that would be towards one whom has served in a high military position, one whom has served in an executive capacity in the business world presiding over large numbers of employees, which would be comparable to a Governor, would get a pass - so that's where Trump gets the OK from me as a basic qualifier).

To a degree I agree with you - He is qualified as an administrator by his many years in business. That counts for something - But that skill still requires conscience behind it, and it is that point of character that interests me most. If skill as an administrator is a sword, I still need to know the hand that wields it, as the weapon can be used in many ways.

As to the issue of legit Conservatives, Cruz remains really the only one.

That is absolutely true - I might be convinced toward Carson, but I admit to much the same problem with him as I have with Trump, except that Carson is even more of a mystery (record-wise). As to whom I would gladly and confidently pull the lever for, IMHO, there is only one. And that, btw, is really not saying all that much - I would much prefer a governor from a Christian-Right red state with exemplary military service. Cruz has his problems too. But he is the only one up there that I implicitly trust to carry the Conservative Mantle and represent all conservative factions.

I watch Cruz to see how he deals with the Trump "issue", and that is telling to me. He does not consider him to be either a threat to "the cause" or to himself (meaning that if Cruz comes up short in the race, if Trump is the nominee, he knows this is a positive development in achieving our goals).

I don't necessarily agree with you here, though I can see where you get it from. But Cruz is a senator, and his actions could just as easy come from biding his time, as it isn't profitable to go head to head with Trump until it is sure that Trump isn't going to blow himself up for free.

As I've said many times, I tend to take a look at those most opposed to Conservatism and their reaction to given candidates. The utter hysteria by the political establishment confirms my conclusions that if Trump was a leftist, you'd hear nary a peep from them, except to praise him.

Nah - He has always been portrayed in the media as a buffoon, with the barest of civility and toleration. He knows how to make their heads spin, and always has. But they have never liked him all that much, no matter. That may be because he is self-made and confident, or it may be because he is so very abrasive, but it cannot be a signal as to his conservative bend, which has not been evident at all prior to this season.

I'll say again that Trump has already gone too far with his candidacy. He can't stuff the genie back in the bottle and go back to where he was before at this point. If he weren't serious about where he stands and the positions he has taken, there's no way he'd have gone this far. He's burned his bridges with the elites. If he does so with the people that support him now, he'll be the biggest pariah this country has ever seen. It makes no logical sense.

Again, I'll disagree. He's been beat down in the press and in business before, dug in, and reappeared on top some years later a success again - And that is a compliment. He is a helluva fighter, and he gets his way, even if it is the hard way - That much is certainly true. He will endure, and he will be back.

Because he motivates not only many in the Conservative base, but also those outside of it in a way we haven't seen since Reagan. When you look at the fact a recent poll showed him getting 25% of the Black vote (which the Democrats cannot afford to bleed off that much), it shows this is a candidate with wider appeal beyond the usual cast of characters and could begin to stage a generational realignment. Trump is serious about going after the votes of non-traditional Republicans, and is showing legitimacy in being able to do just that (and even better, not by pandering, which got us precisely nowhere).

But you and I both know that largely, Reagan Democrats were what is now called the Christian Right. There aren't many 'Reagan Democrats' that went back to being Democrat.

And you and I know that there is nothing up the middle - More than half of independents are either conservative or libertarian minded... the votes are not taken from the democrats nearly as much as getting non-voters to vote - That is the literal sea - That is where landslides come from. They are the silent majority, and they are conservative, IMO. Populists can access that - Palin almost got it done - But whether Trump can remains to be seen.

It also isn't a matter of if he'll come in on a Conservative platform on government spending, he'll simply HAVE to be, since we'll be at or above $20 trillion in debt (not even counting unfunded liabilities that run into over a hundred billion, if not hundreds). He knows that is unsustainable without an economic crash of biblical proportions (the ultimate end of Zero's Cloward-Piven strategy). So right there he's got something.

Do not forget that Dubya's contribution to our troubles is only made negligible by the tripling of his overspending by Obama - But this all started under a Republican. You may well be right about the advantage for Trump, but I am not convinced at all that he will exercise that advantage once in office - It will take mighty discipline to do what must be done, and that will make the doer highly unpopular. And 'unpopular' is not compatible with a populists DNA. Cruz, OTOH, has the courage of his convictions. He will have no problem doing the right thing, no matter how unpopular, rest assured. With him, we will take our medicine.

I take him at his word. I won't use the word "trust", since anyone who trusts someone running for any office is a fool, only that I will give him the benefit of the doubt until he proves otherwise. That's really all you can do as a voter.

I worry about doing that... Again without a solid conservative record, the benefit of the doubt cannot be easily given.

That the (Conservative) GOP ever reached the point that they would be cowered for being right by the left (whom have destroyed this country over countless decades) in the first place is appalling. The proper response to the thugs of the left is to treat them like bullies and knock their soft teeth down their whiny throats

I would submit that without the bombast of Trump, one would easily recognize that very quality in Cruz. But his is quiet, reasoned, and dangerous, without the pomp and bluster... And personally, I find that to be a far more attractive and effective trait.

[...] we could be on the cusp of electing a truly great individual to the Presidency again, someone whom can begin to restore what's been lost.

I agree with you there, but I see that mettle in Cruz, and Cruz alone. None of the rest, to include Trump, carry the conviction, discipline, and dedication to Conservative principle. Whether he can be all that remains to be seen. But he won't get the chance if Conservatives get distracted by squirrels. The hue and cry, even here on FR, is not clamoring for what we all believe in. As you said yourself, the only Conservative up there is Cruz.

"I would point out that we have twenty years of public life, both in business and quasi-political, quasi pop-star fame to draw from too... He has made quite a record in the media."

True. Actually more than 30 years, since he was a prominent developer. He bought the department store my mother worked at in Midtown Manhattan (Bonwit-Teller) and demolished it to build the premier Trump Tower. I find it curious that he didn't run for Mayor of NYC at some point, which would've been a logical entry point into office for him. The only downside is that urban politics and the stances they have to take with a more leftist constituency often prove anathema to a lot of GOP base voters (why Giuliani was always going to have problems). Conversely, when you have some genuine Conservative Mayors, the establishment of the party does its best to sabotage them (most infamously, Jersey City's Bret Schundler, who would've made an excellent Governor of NJ). Trump might've also surmised that being NYC Mayor is a political dead-end (although Giuliani could've broken the mold and run successfully for Governor had he so chosen).

"To a degree I agree with you - He is qualified as an administrator by his many years in business. That counts for something - But that skill still requires conscience behind it, and it is that point of character that interests me most. If skill as an administrator is a sword, I still need to know the hand that wields it, as the weapon can be used in many ways."

True. Trump may not be a Saint, but I don't believe he is an immoral individual.

"That is absolutely true - I might be convinced toward Carson, but I admit to much the same problem with him as I have with Trump, except that Carson is even more of a mystery (record-wise). As to whom I would gladly and confidently pull the lever for, IMHO, there is only one."

Well, we're in agreement with whom we're voting for in the primary. I have Dr. Carson as my third choice behind Trump (and there's no one after him). He is a curiosity as well as an outsider, and that's why he similarly enjoys such high ratings 2nd behind Trump. One might add his qualifier for ostensibly one of the highest-stress jobs in the country is as a top-flight surgeon. That literally requires a cool head, logic, and steady hands because someones life is at immediate risk. What I've seen of him so far is impressive (with some disagreements -- I know he's not big on guns, though that tends to come from the fact as one who has seen close up the patients on the receiving end, he would be justifiably sickened. Of course, the reasons for why has less to do with guns and more to do with the decayed social structure of our country, and especially in the Black community). In his case, I would've liked to see what he could do with a Governorship (Michigan), and some have even suggested Mayor of Detroit, though the latter would be a criminal under-use of his talents. If Trump were somehow to exit the primary, Dr. Carson might easily ascend to the top slot simply because of his being an outsider.

"And that, btw, is really not saying all that much - I would much prefer a governor from a Christian-Right red state with exemplary military service. Cruz has his problems too. But he is the only one up there that I implicitly trust to carry the Conservative Mantle and represent all conservative factions."

It's getting harder and harder to find someone with that military service (let alone one who might have served in a heroic/decorated capacity). Unfortunately, sometimes they're not always what they're cracked up to be. Both Bushes served, so did McCain, so did Colin Powell and Carter. For me, the last true giants of military service who should've become President was Gens. Patton and MacArthur (I do NOT include Eisenhower in that assessment, whom I judged in office as subpar at best and disastrous to the GOP at worst).

"I don't necessarily agree with you here, though I can see where you get it from. But Cruz is a senator, and his actions could just as easy come from biding his time, as it isn't profitable to go head to head with Trump until it is sure that Trump isn't going to blow himself up for free."

I just don't see that showdown coming (with my estimation that they'll both be on the ticket).

"Nah - He has always been portrayed in the media as a buffoon, with the barest of civility and toleration. He knows how to make their heads spin, and always has. But they have never liked him all that much, no matter. That may be because he is self-made and confident, or it may be because he is so very abrasive, but it cannot be a signal as to his conservative bend, which has not been evident at all prior to this season."

Of course, dismissing him as a buffoon is dangerously ignorant and short-sighted, as the media and his opponents are learning. But still, I don't believe we'd see this level of deranged hatred for him if he were as leftist as some claim.

"Again, I'll disagree. He's been beat down in the press and in business before, dug in, and reappeared on top some years later a success again - And that is a compliment. He is a helluva fighter, and he gets his way, even if it is the hard way - That much is certainly true. He will endure, and he will be back."

Yes, but you're talking about in business. This is something entirely different that requires people to get behind him and believe in him. If it all turns out to be lies, that's not something he can just recover from like a business or venture that went bust.

"But you and I both know that largely, Reagan Democrats were what is now called the Christian Right. There aren't many 'Reagan Democrats' that went back to being Democrat.

And you and I know that there is nothing up the middle - More than half of independents are either conservative or libertarian minded... the votes are not taken from the democrats nearly as much as getting non-voters to vote - That is the literal sea - That is where landslides come from. They are the silent majority, and they are conservative, IMO. Populists can access that - Palin almost got it done - But whether Trump can remains to be seen."

I'm not talking about getting "Reagan Democrats" (since as you said, they're really GOP now). I'm talking about carving out an entirely new constituency of voters to augment the Conservative GOP base. These are folks whom have generally voted Democrat, but are waking up to the fact that things really are getting substantially worse in this country across the board. The heaping debt, illegals taking jobs and welfare benefits up to wazoo, racial strife that has demonstrably worsened under Zero, just the general feeling that we're going downhill fast and are "losers."

A lot are people that believed Zero's empty rhetoric about "change" and wanted to feel good about electing a Black President (in the face of two less-than-impressive GOP phonies whom demonstrated neither wanted to win). One might say it is something akin to perhaps 1920 when the public was tired of WW1, the near-Depression of 1919-21 that followed at the same time they battled an epic-level influenza pandemic at the end of the Wilson Era. They flooded to Harding-Coolidge seeking that "Return to Normalcy" and stuck it out for 12 years (or with FDR in 1932 benefitting in a similar way running against Hoover). A large swath of voters ready to look outside their usual party preference and cause a realignment. I can see Trump riding that wave as a transformative figure that the media falsely tried to credit Zero with. I can see Zero filling the Hoover role easily (though Hoover did far better in the private sector than Zero ever did or ever will).

"Do not forget that Dubya's contribution to our troubles is only made negligible by the tripling of his overspending by Obama - But this all started under a Republican."

Dubya and a GOP Congress that ignored why it was elected did play a substantial role. Of course, we were already in serious trouble by 1992, with almost unimaginable debt a quarter-century hence.

"You may well be right about the advantage for Trump, but I am not convinced at all that he will exercise that advantage once in office - It will take mighty discipline to do what must be done, and that will make the doer highly unpopular. And 'unpopular' is not compatible with a populists DNA. Cruz, OTOH, has the courage of his convictions. He will have no problem doing the right thing, no matter how unpopular, rest assured. With him, we will take our medicine."

It boils down to that he simply has no choice. If Trump doesn't, the greatest economic crash in the history of the republic will make the choice for him.

"I worry about doing that... Again without a solid conservative record, the benefit of the doubt cannot be easily given."

Sometimes you have to look the candidate square in the eye and see if there's any "there" there in the absence of substantive proof. I see it. It's the only way I can give him a shred of credence.

"I would submit that without the bombast of Trump, one would easily recognize that very quality in Cruz. But his is quiet, reasoned, and dangerous, without the pomp and bluster... And personally, I find that to be a far more attractive and effective trait."

I think it is precisely the anger and no bullcrap on Trump's part that gets a lot of people into his camp. They see this country slipping away into some alien morass and he can begin to enunciate what we feel. You can be soft-spoken and reasoned about it, but right now, I think some righteous fury and passion is just what the doctor ordered. Stand tall, say what you mean, and don't apologize for it.

"I agree with you there, but I see that mettle in Cruz, and Cruz alone. None of the rest, to include Trump, carry the conviction, discipline, and dedication to Conservative principle. Whether he can be all that remains to be seen. But he won't get the chance if Conservatives get distracted by squirrels. The hue and cry, even here on FR, is not clamoring for what we all believe in. As you said yourself, the only Conservative up there is Cruz."

The only one we know as a matter of political record in office. But even Cruz sees what I and others see in Trump and it might be greatness that can turn this ship of state around and someone that give this country back its manhood again. Cruz is smart enough to know that if he can't lead that parade, he's going to be standing right behind the leader.

" ~~A reader writes~~The author asks a question, “Everyone says Donald Trump can’t win. Exactly why not?” "

A beautiful, unbelievable, never to be forgotten race. I watched it and found it hard to believe. :)

I bet on him, and expected him to win but didn’t expect him to be able to walk away from the field by 31 lengths. Just damn. And he looks like he was having fun.