Posted on 10/12/2015 5:44:24 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
A reader writes, Everyone says Donald Trump cant win. Exactly why not?
David Leonhardt, editor for The Upshot, considers the question:
Can Donald Trump win the Republican nomination? Sure, its within the realm of plausibility; hes now been leading the polls for months, after all. But it seems highly unlikely because it would violate just about every historical pattern of presidential races.
No modern candidate has received a major-party nomination and perhaps no candidate in American history while being opposed by the partys elites: donors, media figures, politicians and others.
Elite support matters because they have the ability to shape public opinion through endorsements, public criticism and other means. Many voters dont follow campaigns very closely. They dont dig through position papers or watch hours upon hours of debates. Theyre influenced by what they hear.
In every recent Republican presidential campaign, a couple of contenders often with resumes atypical of a serious candidate have shot to the top of the early polls, only to fade as they face scrutiny and criticism. Whats fascinating about Mr. Trump is that he has, if anything, endured harsher criticism, and yet he has also remained atop the polls for longer.
Perhaps Republican primary voters have grown so fed up with the country and their party that theyre willing to dismiss the collective opinion of Republican elites (which now seems to favor Marco Rubio or Jeb Bush). But it really would be unprecedented for the party to nominate someone like Mr. Trump, Ben Carson or Carly Fiorina....
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
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It is demonstrably true.
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They’re moving heaven and earth to have him destroy the chance of electing a conservative.
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Polling indicated Trump was getting 25% of the Black vote. No GOP candidate has gotten that since Nixon in 1960. The Democrats can’t lose more than 10% of the Black vote or they lose outright. Running against one of the 3 Stalinist senile cretins for the Democrats (Bernie, the Butcheress of Benghazi, or Plugs Biden) and it’s a no brainer who wins.
Then Cruz is in on the “conspiracy.” I expect him to be Trump’s VP.
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Trump is not going to make it through the primaries. It doesn’t make a shred of difference to the Dems in the general where his votes came from.
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Now you’re just being facetious.
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This is plain silliness. You're making our man look bad writing this.
"Now youre just being facetious."
Nope. The question is will you vote for the Trump-Cruz ticket in the general ?
Trump sure is electable. Polls have shown that he is electable. Like this one and others.
"New Labor Day Polls Show Trump Leading in GOP Favorability & Defeating Every Democrat Challenger"
'According to a survey of all Americans Today its:
* Trump 45%, Clinton 40%. (There is a 20-point Gender Gap; Trump leads by 18 points among seniors.) * Trump 44%, Sanders 40%. (Trump leads by 10 among independents and by 6 among moderates.) * Trump 44%, Biden 42%. (Trump leads by 10 among the best educated; Biden leads by 17 among the least educated.) * Trump 44%, Gore 41%. (Trump leads by 12 among men and by 18 among voters age 50+.)
Among a subset of registered voters who tell SurveyUSA that they pay a lot of attention to politics, the scale tilts to the right. The poll results are even more devastating amid those who are registered voters: Today its:
* Trump 54%, Clinton 36%. * Trump 53%, Sanders 39%. * Trump 53%, Biden 37%. * Trump 54%, Gore 36%. '
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d950cadf-05ce-4148-a125-35c0cdab26c6
No.
So for whom will you vote for ?
Trump is foe to the Beltway, media, DNC and RNC.
I like him for that reason alone, and because he is putting his own money on the line. What’s not to like about that?
Then again, I think we could use Ray Donovan as POTUS. God knows we need someone who’ll get in the mud and yank. Being above it all or legalistic can go to an AG...or, please God, SCOTUS.
Is Cruz purer? Yes. I don’t, however, think he can win. I’d like him to be Grand Vizier.
Certainly not for a liberal Yankee. Tell, me, did you wind up voting for Romney, after your resolute preaching here? I don't see a dimes worth of difference between Trump and Romney, other than Trump's narcissistic braggadocio...
What would ever cause you to be surprised that Trump is unpalatable to a Conservative?
Tu no comprendo? fastima
If this guy were as leftist as some maintain, the media and party establishment would be falling all over themselves to see him nominated. They don't want him anywhere near the GOP nomination because they know he can win.
"Tell, me, did you wind up voting for Romney, after your resolute preaching here?"
I'd have dropped an anvil on my frank and beans before voting for Willard. I voted for Virgil Goode for President in 2012.
"I don't see a dimes worth of difference between Trump and Romney, other than Trump's narcissistic braggadocio..."
Except Willard was a pathological liar whose sole mission was to stop a Conservative nominee and to lose to Zero. It was the same mission as McQueeg. His record in MA was clear as a bell: He was a Socialist fraud. Trump is running to win in the general. He's not engaging in the kind of phony-baloney ass kissing of the base we saw from Willard and McQueeg that could be seen through from a mile away that didn't match their record.
After it was "all over" for Willard & McQueeg, they could go back to things as usual, no fuss, no muss. This is not so where Trump is concerned. His running as he is, taking the positions that he has, and everything else along the way is causing him more problems with his own class and peers, both financially and personally. He's set fire in a spectacular way to the bridges to the cultural elites and there's no going back.
If he did not truly believe in what he says, there's simply no benefit to him. If he wins and rips off the mask and says he's really a left winger, no one will trust him or work with him. The left certainly won't. They may crow and chuckle for a few minutes, but they'd have no use for him in the end. He has to be fully committed to this, fully committed to winning, fully committed to doing what he's saying. He's set himself on that single course and can't deviate from it now without destroying his reputation for the rest of his life and for all time. Apply some logic here and you'll realize this.
No, Trump is the ONLY electable candidate despite bogus polls showing Carson winning. Moreover, traditionally the primary winner coalesces either all or most of the GOP support. Even Romney got most--it's a myth that 4 million GOP voters stayed home (Romney exceeded McCain's 2008 vote, especially in key states).
If this guy were as leftist as some maintain, the media and party establishment would be falling all over themselves to see him nominated. They don't want him anywhere near the GOP nomination because they know he can win.
As Conservatives are wont to do, I will retire to his record - What he's done is what he is - And I doubt very highly that you will try to defend him by his record. If you care to try, bring it.
His historic position is undoubtedly at least center left, and that, IMHO, is being kind. He makes for good copy, which is enough to get him much exposure - But I wonder how much of his fame is exactly by design, with all this bombast (to ridiculous heights) taking the air away from those who rightly deserve the Conservative mantle... Hoping perhaps that his tantrums blow all the steam out of the population before it has any effect on the election. I consider him to be exactly that sort of stalking horse. He is pushing every single button.
As to his determination to win, I am not sure of that at all - If he succeeds in wearing out the Conservative, and then stays in, I may be forced to cede to your position.
However, even if that is the case, and he obtains the nomination, How does he stand any better chance than Romney in the general? Nobody is paying attention right now, so he gets the benefit of the doubt - But do you really think the Christian Right is going to go to the wall for him once they find out his historic positions? What does he offer to DEFCONS? He is in exactly the same place as Romney, with about the same things to offer FICONS (which actually isn't much), and nothing to offer, or worse, opposition to, the other factions... He's got nuthin' for Conservatives.
And finally, supposing he gets elected without the Christians, Defense/foreign policy conservatives, and the libertarian/civil conservatives, how in fact shall he govern? According to his electioneering, or according to his record? I won't take that chance. I think he will be every bit the tyrant that we have now. But he's 'our' tyrant, eh?
Nah - I won't vote for that, even if Cruz would accept VP... Anymore than I would vote for McQueeg, just because he started waiving Palin around.
That is a much mis-understood point. And since Romney exceeded McCain's votes, the real reason he lost is because the democrat voters were more energized for Obama. The 47% comment by Romney scared the heck out of democrats. If my personal democrat contacts are any indication, the only republican they will consider switching party loyalty is for Trump. Ted Cruz will bring democrats out of the wood work to vote for Hillary.
Because if my life long democrat sister will vote for Trump, I smell a landslide with or without your vote.
Knock yourself out. Same was said for McQueef and Romney. How'd that work out? There is no !UP! the middle.
Yes, and more important, the fact that Romney was ashamed of his wealth. Trump embraces it. He says, “I’m really rich, and I want you to be really rich too.” He doesn’t say, “I’m really rich, but I shouldn’t be,” which was Romney’s message. You can’t believe how that message of getting rich plays to kids and younger people from the inner city.
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