Posted on 10/06/2015 5:37:01 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
If all you’re interested in is the topline then this is the best poll for Trump in weeks. Only once since the second GOP debate had he reached as high as 26 percent in a national poll — until today. He’s still 10 points better than his closest competitor here. And although he’s dropped two points, from 29 percent to 27, since PPP published its last national poll on September 1st, no one else except for Marco Rubio has gained more than two points in that time either. Rubio picked up six points to move from fifth place to third this time, another sign that he’s emerging as a center-right alternative to Jeb but not as some sort of juggernaut who threatens Trump. Yet.
As I say, that’s the good news for Trump fans. The other news in today’s poll is … not so good:
He’s had a 14 point drop in his net favorability rating over the last month from +26 at 56/30 to now just +12 at 50/38. And he’s lost ground in head to head match ups with the other leading GOP contenders. The only one he leads is Bush by 20 points at 56/36, although even that is down from his 25 point advantage at 59/34 last time. Last month he led Rubio (50/42) and Fiorina (48/41) in head to heads, now he trails them 50/43 and 47/45 respectively. And what was already a 49/43 deficit to Carson one on one has now grown to 52/41. But perhaps the worst blow for Trump may be that GOP voters don’t think he’s as rich as he says is. Only 30% believe his net worth is over even 5 billion dollars to 55% who think it’s below that threshold. For the most part people aren’t buying his 10 billion dollar claim.
I’ve been watching his numbers in PPP’s head-to-head contests for weeks on the theory that they probably tell us more about Trump’s real strength in the race than even the topline numbers do. At some point the primaries will in fact become a two- or three-candidate race and voters who are backing other candidates right now or are otherwise undecided will have to make a choice. If forced to choose between Trump and Rubio or Trump and Fiorina, will they stick with the guy who’s currently leading the polls? A PPP poll of North Carolina in August showed Trump trailing numerous Republican rivals head-to-head even though he led the overall field at the time. But then, a few weeks later, things had changed: Trump actually led various competitors head to head in PPP’s national poll of September 1st, suggesting that GOP voters really were starting to think of him as a viable nominee even after the field inevitably winnowed. Today’s poll turns all of that around, placing Trump behind Carson, Rubio, and Fiorina, with only sad-sack Jeb Bush still less attractive to GOP voters than Trump is when given a binary choice.
What’s more, if you scroll down to page 12 of the crosstabs, you’ll find that supporters of nearly every other GOP candidate reliably break against Trump when he’s pitted against Carson, Fiorina, or Rubio. The only exceptions are Rand Paul’s and Rick Santorum’s supporters, and they might be hard to gauge accurately given how small those samples are. Supporters of Ted Cruz, who’s spent months complimenting Trump, prefer Carson to Trump by a margin of 75/17, prefer Fiorina by a margin of 71/24, and prefer Rubio by a margin of 59/30. Even Trump’s ostentatious hawkishness on immigration can’t woo Cruz fans away from Rubio, in other words. The suggestion here is that there’s strong “Anyone But Trump” sentiment among the majority of voters who aren’t already supporting him, exceeded only by “Anyone But Bush” sentiment. (Jeb’s favorable rating is a gruesome 34/49 among Republicans generally and 26/56 among “very conservative” Republicans.) Trump either needs to turn those numbers around or he needs to hope that the field stays unexpectedly large throughout the early primaries, allowing him to win as the majority splinters among other candidates and he builds up irresistible momentum. Any early shrinking of the field to just a few credible alternatives and he’s got a problem, at least if today’s trend holds.
Worth noting, by the way: Chris Christie has turned his own gruesome favorable rating among Republicans in September (28/54) into a semi-respectable 43/38 rating now. That’s what a pretty good debate can do for someone. Three weeks and counting until the next one.
I think you put your finger on it. It's frustrating, but true. I'm still holding out hope that when it gets down to four or five, he will get time to speak and will make a favorable impression on people.
Jefferson Sessions as Vice President
Department of State, (return INS.) – Donald Rumsfeld
Department of Justice – Rep. Steve King
Department of Treasury, (includes former Homeland Security - Customs) – Carl Icahn (Offered and Accepted)
Department of War, (change the name back.) – Gen. James Mattis
Department of Interior, (includes legitimate functions only of former Transportation, Homeland Security - Border Patrol, and Energy Departments) – Gov. Palin
Department of Health and Human Services (include the VA function.) – Dr. Ben Carson
Department of Labor and Commerce – ELIMINATE
Department of Homeland Security – ELIMINATE
Department of Education – ELIMINATE as proposed by The Donald, 9/23/25 at a Columbia, SC Town Hall with Sen. Tim Scott.
Department of Energy – ELIMINATE
Department of Housing and Urban Development – ELIMINATE
Department of Veterans Affairs - ELIMINATE
Department of Agriculture – ELIMINATE
Department of Transportation - ELIMINATE
This proposed model has the President directly managing seven subordinates which is optimal.
In non-cabinet level jobs
Sheriff Clarke should be FBI Director
Michelle Bachman as IRS Commissioner under Secretary Carl Icahn in Treasury
Admiral James A. “Ace” Lyons as Undersecretary of War - Navy Branch.
LTC Allen West as Undersecretary of War – Army Branch.
Lynnette “Diamond” Hardaway and Rochelle “Silk” Richardson would be great as President Trumps Co-Press Secretaries.
In Congress lets have Trey Gowdy as Speaker of the House,
and Ted Cruz as Senate Majority Leader.
I don’t trust polls.
I hope he hangs in there and grows stronger. There is only one other candidate I would be comfortable voting for, and that is too thin a reserve for comfort.
Cruz wears well. The more one sees and hears of him the more convincing he comes across. That is a good thing. But he has miles to go before he sleeps.
Are you trying to get Hits for this Pro amnesty and Pro Treason Treaty Blog ?
Allahidiot is a Pro- Amnesty shill has what kind of expertise outside Peddling for Amnesty and Rhinos and DC establishment causes?
This Establishment blog is useless dripple from nameless blogger who peddles BS !
Response: "Maybe to a candidate that hasn't been trashing their guy? "
Trump will not be getting their support, negativity has consequences. In today's Iowa poll, in head-to-heads with Hillary, the worst-performing Republican is ……Donald Trump.
But...but...she’s a BRIDGE CANDIDATE!
This apparently is the media’s term for a RINO.
The blogger is a ‘ DC insider want to be ‘ that Michelle Malkin should have fired before she sold out to the Enemy , Salem.
Salem employs all the DC establishment crowd
Hugh Hewitt
Mike Medved
Eric Erikson
Kathryn Hamn
A sea of Pro amnesty shills .
This blogger spins any poll to be either pro Rubio or Carly or Jeb....
I’ve been saying the same thing.
Reagan had it right. He didn't trash his opponents in the primaries and was able to gain their followers support. Trump is burning bridges.
OK "Washington cartel" is a stupid buzz word HE made up and MOST people when they hear that have no idea what the hell a "Washington cartel" is.
The ad was paid for by his SuperPAC (the same one that gave Carly $500,000)...The ad was a waste of air time and money.
Useful background information. Thank you.
Yup.....I’ll put up with some of his flaws to get the border under control.
Trump isn’t burning bridges. None of the media or GOPe has been nice to him from the start. That is one reason so many people like him. All the right people hate him just for entering the race.
Cruz is a nice guy who they hate because he burned bridges in the Senate. He pissed off the GOPe too, but all his fighting has been in the Senate and he has stood up, but hasn’t had any victories to tout.
You wait, Trump will probably win Iowa. Anyone could beat the Hildebeast, that is if she is the candidate. She could be indicted yet.
I don’t remember the media publishing head to head polls with Willard and Newt or Willard and Santorum. Mitt’s 20% was just fine to demonstrate his “broad appeal”...These head to heads are ridiculous. Fiorina is polling 6% and they’re testing her head to head with Trump.
PPP polls are reliably unreliable. This is a very Dem outfit.
I don't know about you, but I used to know guys in school where ever girl would tell me what a jerk he was and how she hated him, right up to the point she went out with him.
I think there is a lot of waffling on the "undercard" by people who don't want to be so proletarian as to be seen supporting Trump, but you can bet they will vote for him, especially against Sanders or Hillary.
Well, that pretty much rules out the one with the high unfavorables.
yeah me too.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.