The Truth About the 2016 Race

Politico ^ | 9/7/15 | Larry J. Sabato , Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/stor

[jimbo123]

The rise of Donald Trump might represent some massive sea change in American politics—but it’s far more likely he will fade long before the primary season does. Thanks to Trump, August was a blockbuster month for the political press, but most of what is happening now won’t decide who is sworn in on Jan. 20, 2017

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#7. Trump is still unlikely to be the nominee. We’re not disputing that Donald Trump is the clear polling frontrunner on the GOP side, or that he has struck a chord with millions of voters unimpressed with politicians that “talk rather than do.” Two other candidates who’ve never held elected office, Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina, are also attracting large shares of support.

However, the Trump candidacy has all the markings of an early bubble that will eventually burst. We’re betting that most Republicans will return to traditional politicians as the election season rolls on. Out of the current 17 GOP candidates, five come closest to meeting the usual metrics required to win a major-party nomination: Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Scott Walker, Ted Cruz and John Kasich.

As concerned as many are about Bush’s dynasty burdens and Jeb’s uneven, unexciting performances on the trail, he still has the best chance to win over the party establishment (big donors and big-name politicians). Plus, his $119 million, and growing, war chest is far greater than those of his rivals.

[gogeo]

I believe the $$$ were to PACs, not the campaign. Jeb can’t spend or direct or coordinate the $$$.