Posted on 09/05/2015 10:55:15 AM PDT by Kaslin
So there you were, enjoying a perfectly lovely Friday heading into the Memorial Day weekend, (fine… it’s Labor day) safe and secure in the knowledge that all the things you needed to know about the 2016 presidential race were, for the moment, known. And then this happened.
Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump leads Democrat Hillary Clinton head-to-head, according to a new poll released Friday.
The poll by SurveyUSA finds that matched up directly, Trump garners 45 percent to Clinton’s 40 percent.
In other head-to-head matchups, Trump beats out Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) by 44 percent to 40 percent; Vice President Joe Biden by 44 percent to 42 percent; and former Vice President Al Gore by 44 percent to 41 percent.
The other interesting question that the phone survey (taken in the first few days of September) explored was the predictions of who would win the GOP nomination. Previously, even among Trump supporters, the largest number of people liked Trump but they didn’t think he was going to be the nominee. Now even that metric has flipped and 30% believe he will be carrying the GOP standard into the general election, while 20% still think it’s going to be Bush. (That would be the “follow the money” crowd I suppose.)
One of the first objections which will be raised by both Democrats and Trump’s critics on the Republican side is that “it’s SurveyUSA.” We seem to hit at least one of these stories every election cycle, but the complaints don’t tend to hold a lot of water. Going all the way back to the 2010 midterms there were similar complaints lodged by people who didn’t care for their results, but even then Nate Silver was giving them positive marks compared to established names such as Rasmussen.
On Tuesday, polls conducted by the firm Rasmussen Reports — which released more than 100 surveys in the final three weeks of the campaign, including some commissioned under a subsidiary on behalf of Fox News — badly missed the margin in many states, and also exhibited a considerable bias toward Republican candidates.
Other polling firms, like SurveyUSA and Quinnipiac University, produced more reliable results in Senate and gubernatorial races. A firm that conducts surveys by Internet, YouGov, also performed relatively well.
Still, this is just one poll and we’ll have to see a few more lining up in the same direction before we can declare a supportable shift in the tides. But the numbers seem to be following a pattern which has become ingrained in this season’s ongoing drama. So, assuming this data starts locking in for a while, what explains it? Had they only run Trump against Hillary there would be an easy out: Clinton’s numbers have been in free fall across the board for a while now and she’s currently so far underwater on her favorability and trust statistics that Trey Gowdy’s next investigation may include charges of her stealing artifacts from the wreck of the Titanic. In that light it would be simple enough to just say that everyone hates Hillary so they just hate The Donald a little less.
But how then would we explain how he’s beating Bernie Sanders and even lovable Uncle Joe Biden? Something is happening here and it’s either going to turn out to be SurveyUSA hitting a serious glitch in their process or… can we say it out loud? The other choice is that everybody who does this for a living got this wrong. Trump is still breaking all the rules on a daily basis, but it’s becoming a very real possibility that the people out there getting ready to vote in the primary and the general election as well don’t really give a hoot about our rules.
We have all lived to see interesting times.
The “endgame” ain’t until November 2016. The Democrats are probably loading up on “October Surprises” for ‘Pubbie candidate. .
How about Debbie Wasserman Schultz?
Whoever takes it, a poll 14 months out says nothing about the election.
Shows Trump’s doing well now.
The Cheap Labor Express is sucking wind..............
That takes away the unelectable argument.
Although recent comments seems to show he can’t be relied on to fight for religious freedom.
If this keeps up, the ‘RATS are going to have to charter a lot more flights to Mexico, Central and South America to pick up “unaccompanied minor refugee” ‘RAT voters if they are going to have any chance of Princess Hillary winning.
SurveyUSA I have found to be one of the most accurate and impartial.
He has to shift into overdrive now. They are gonna pull out all the stops, use intel assets against him, paid judges and every other crooked thug stunt they can come up with.
But he has real live tough guy NYC cops around him who take no shit. Good thing that.
What is doesn’t say is; Trump and the Clintoon’s are good friends BOTH OF THEM..
Bubba Clintoon is advising TRUMP..
Question; What has the Clinton’s ever done that would make ANYONE WANT to be friend’s with them?.. EITHER OF THEM?
To be a friend of the Clintoon’s calls into question YOUR OWN MOTIVES..
You know ANYONE that even has a partial knowledge of what they have both ALREADY DONE..
The CLintoon’s are EVIL AND their friends are also EVIL..
IF YOU BELIEVE IN EVIL.. some don’t (whom are evil themselves)..
I can just see Donald, man I don't want to even be a fly on the wall when and if this happens...
He has been referred to as ‘the nuclear bomb’ and I would imagine this would wipe out the whole government and all of ‘sewer city’ in one swell swoop....
I love your tag line!
You are right. The dems are as determined as any dictatorship to hold on to power. Between massive voter fraud, massive collusion by the enemedia and last minute ambushes, it will be very difficult for any non-Dem to win the WH in 16.
-—Something is happening here and...-—
What’s happening here is that We the People are beginning to break from their slumber and exert their will.
The key word there is beginning.
The communists are about to find out what Admiral Yamamoto felt like when he realized the attack on Pearl Harbor had awakened the sleeping giant.
America has a history of snatching victory from the jaws of defeat.
“We have all lived to see interesting times.”
Funny how no one seems to remember that, ‘May you live in interesting times,’is a CURSE, not a Blessing! ;)
And even if a conservative or a reformer actually wins, it will be very hard to make any progress. In addition to Congress and the Judiciary, every member of the Federal Civil Service will be opposing him.
If this is indeed possible
Everyone who finds Trump less socially conservative than we wish may have to live with it
To me he’s better than anyone but Cruz
Or Bobby J
I mean go back and read your last post that I'm replying to here with all the capital letters, bad grammar and hostile tone. How do you expect to win anybody over with that approach?
Anyway, for the rest of the people reading here, Donald Trump led off his NYC press conference on Thursday by stating that Hillary is in serious trouble with her email server and may not even be in the race come next November. He also stated that Hillary Clinton was the worst Secretary of State in our nation's history and is very unsuited to be our next president. That doesn't sound like somebody who is a "good friend" of the Clintons.
No shite
Sums it up
LOL, forgetaboutit! The GOPe. are dumb enough to run Graham.
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