Posted on 08/29/2015 4:50:36 AM PDT by Kaslin
I don’t know whom I will end up supporting next year, but I do like Donald Trump.
I like his books. I like his personality. I appreciate all of the things he's done right in this campaign.
If you applied the old "Who would you like to have a beer with?” test that has probably determined far more elections than most Americans want to admit, Trump would beat everyone in the field combined twice over. In a time when the Republican Party has become timid, weak and utterly corrupt, Trump is bold, strong and he has enough money that he can't be bought off. Also, unlike most other Republican politicians, he doesn't turn into a pool of whimpering jello every time someone claims to be offended. His immigration plan? It may be the single best thing a Republican politician has come out with in the last decade. Also, in a time when most of the Republican Party isn't willing to fight anyone except for its own supporters and won't fight for anything except what its wealthy donors want, Trump has shown a willingness to take on the Left and win.
Yet and still, I never expected Trump to make it into first place. Then, after he made it into first place, I never expected him to hang on for so long. He has already taken enough hits and made enough gaffes to kill 5 other campaigns, but Trump has done so much right that the things he's done wrong haven't done much damage. If anything, Trump seems to be getting STRONGER.
This has been reflected in the types of discussions you hear about Trump on the radio. In every radio appearance I’ve done in the last couple of months, we’ve inevitably spent at least half of our time talking about Trump. At first, the question that kept coming up was, “Why are people supporting him?” Then it moved on to some variation of, “How long do you think Trump can last?” Now that Trump has shown some staying power, the question has become, “Will Trump win the nomination?”
I don’t know the answer to that question and anyone who tells you definitively that Trump is going to win or is going to go down in flames is full of it. However, I can make some educated guesses about what could stop the guy who’s dominating the field from winning.
1) How Conservative Will He Turn Out To Be? Trump has no problem admitting that he used to have much more liberal opinions, but he says he’s “evolved” to become much more conservative, much the same way Reagan did. Of course, Reagan “evolved” as a very conservative politician who had a chance to show what he really believed as the governor of California. Because Trump hasn’t held office and tends to talk in very broad strokes, we really don’t know how conservative he will turn out to be on many issues. Over the next few months, Trump will be forced to spend a lot of time fleshing out his positions and if it turns out he’s well to the Left of the base on some of them, it could peel off enough support to cost him the nomination.
2) He Could Top Out: This is one you hear a lot from political insiders. Supposedly, if it turns into a two man race, with Trump vs. an “anti-Trump” candidate, his support may top out and he’ll be unable to win.However, that may be wishful thinking. After all, in the latest Quinnipiac poll, Trump is polling at 28% while the other “outsider” candidates (Carson, Cruz, Fiorina) draw in another 24%. Trump would have a better shot than anyone of reeling in those voters if those candidates left the race. Combine that with the fact that the RNC heavily frontloaded the primaries and that Republican voters LOVE to jump on the bandwagon of the campaign that they think will win and there’s not much reason to believe that Trump could start extremely strong, but wouldn’t be able to gather enough support to emerge victorious. If Trump dominates in the beginning, it’s highly likely that he’ll be dominating in the end as well.
3) Mistakes Pile Up: Donald Trump has shown a remarkable ability (for a Republican at least) to survive gaffes that would wipe out a lesser candidate. There were his comments about McCain, the fight with Fox over the debate, retweeting some nasty shots at Megyn Kelly and probably a half dozen other minor incidents for him that would have done serious damage to another candidate. Although it’s possible Trump could make a major gaffe that will sink him, an accumulation of mistakes could be just as lethal. It’s sort of like a car. You expect a mechanical problem now and then, but if you have to take it in for repairs every few weeks, you’ll eventually conclude it’s a lemon and go get a new one.
4) He Has Bad Polling Numbers Against The Democrats In 2016: Head-to-Head polling numbers in August of 2015 don’t mean much. After all, there haven’t been any ads yet, the voters are just learning the candidates and the debates are just getting started. However, later in the campaign season, in say January of 2016, how the different GOP candidates match up with the Democrats will take on more significance. While a minor difference in numbers shouldn’t sway anyone, if it turns out Trump is getting buried while other candidates are doing well, it will move votes. At the end of the day, it’s not just about beating the Republican Establishment; it’s about putting someone in the White House who can change things.
5) He May Be Reluctant To Spend Money: According to Ed Rollins, who ran Ross Perot’s run at the White House, one of the things that kept the campaign from really taking off was Perot’s refusal to spend the money he needed to get over the top.It might seem surprising that a billionaire like Perot wouldn’t be willing to spend what it took to win, but billionaires get that rich by accumulating money, not by spending it on things that will never produce a financial return on their investment. There are at least some indications that Trump may be reluctant to spend what it takes to win as well,
While Democratic front-runner Hillary Rodham Clinton boasts an army of more than 350 paid staffers, Trump's operation fields less than a tenth that number.
It includes a coterie of about a dozen paid staffers operating out of the campaign headquarters at Trump Tower on Manhattan's Fifth Avenue — the same building where Trump lives and runs his real estate empire.
His team has no pollster, fundraisers or media consultant and only announced its first fulltime, big-name policy adviser this week.
Becoming the next President of the United States is probably going to cost somewhere between 2.5 and 5 billion dollars. Can even Trump liquidate enough of his empire to shell out that much? More importantly, would he be willing to do it? The jury’s out right now, but as we get closer to the first primaries, we’re going to see if Trump is really willing to vaporize a large chunk of his own fortune to become the next President of the United States.
6) Opposition Research Could Be A Problem: Because Donald Trump has never run for office, he has not been fully vetted. In his case, that’s an area of particular concern because he’s a celebrity, playboy billionaire on his third marriage who has no qualms about saying outrageous things. As we speak, every book he’s written and every public appearance he’s ever made is being scrutinized. People who hate Trump’s guts are being interviewed, rumors are being chased down and whatever is found will be put into ads by Super PACS that will spend millions to saturate the airwaves. What will they come up with? Well, as Donald Rumsfeld might say, that is one of the, “unknown unknowns — the ones we don’t know we don’t know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tend to be the difficult ones.”
Whatever happens with Trump, I’m grateful to him for his immigration plan, for hammering Jeb Bush into the ground and for shaking things up in a Republican Party that has grown stagnant and unresponsive to the people that have put the GOP in office. Whether he wins or loses in the end, as long as Trump’s involved, it will probably be one Hell of a show!
Amen to that. You’ve distilled the essence of his appeal into one sentence.
I’m not a fan of Trump as a presidential candidate, but I’m a big fan as a lesson to a good share of American men on how to speak your mind without first checking with the PC police.
I trace it back to the first government shutdown, which I think was 95. Republicans turned all pussy after that.
Not exactly.
The Republican Contract With America was in 1994.
1998 saw House Republicans file impeachment charges against Bill Clinton.
The weakness didn't begin until after Democrats radicalized and criminalized politics after losing Bush v Gore in 2000.
Trent Lott was the Majority Leader in the Senate during Clinton's impeachment. After that, he folded during the power sharing deal with Democrats when Jim Jeffords switched sides. Prior to this, he was weak when dealing with Democrats during the prior lame-duck session when they briefly retook control.
After Lott resigned in 2002, Bill Frist became the Majority Leader, with Mitch McConnell as his deputy. This pairing of Frist and McConnell is generally when Republican weakness became metastasized. This was the period of Bush court nominee filibusters, reluctance to use "the nuclear option," McCain's emergence with the Gang of 14 to undermine Republican pressure on Democrats, and the Bolton nomination to the United Nations.
The Weakness has reached terminal levels this year.
-PJ
The shutdown certainly resulted in Gingrich resigning and Dennis Hastert emerging. Gingrich was double-crossed by Bill Clinton during negotiations, when Gingrich agreed to terms with Clinton and then Clinton went to the Rose Garden, blamed Gingrich, and took sole credit for restarting the government. Democrats then retaliated against Gingrich with series of trumped up ethics charges. To them, this was ironic payback over Gingrich ousting former Democrat Speaker Jim Wright over ethics charges regarding bulk sales of a campaign pamphlet "book."
Coincidentally, it was John Boehner who led the group of House Republicans who went to Gingrich with the ultimatum to step down.
However, impeachment came after that, so there was still some fight in Republicans in the late 1990s.
-PJ
Ever hear of Eric Cantor?
Then-House Majority Leader, Eric Cantor (R-Va), was considered untouchable and inevitable.
<><> Cantor had tons of money---spent 26X times his primary opponent's $100K.
<><> Cantor consistently polled an astounding 34 points ahead of his unknown opponent.
<><> Cantor was considered "inevitable" and "untouchable".
<><> Cantor had not even one ethics problems.
<><> Cantor sucked-up to an anti-tea party group.
<><> Cantor sucked up to the latino vote.
<><> Cantor showboated his leadership---was deeply into "diversity."
=============================================
BY CONTRAST HIS PRIMARY OPPONENT:
<><> ran as the one to term-limit Cantor;
<><> Brat roundly opposed, and was vociferous against amnesty.
<><> Brat ran as a staunch conservative (now in Congress he has a bonafide 100% conservative rating.)
<><> On election day, Brat got 18,000 more Repub out to the polls than the previous election that elected Cantor.
================================================
CANTOR IN DEFEAT----DUMBFOUNDED:
C. Edmund isn’t blowing smoke here, I’m aware of who he has ghostwritten for, and while I likewise cannot go into detail due to confidentiality issues, the man is on the level and I more than respect what he has accomplished in his ‘outside-FR’ life. ;)
brother jessup....told you it would rattle em....
what are you babbling about bitter old man?
LOL, that’s assuming they don’t join forces and have you roasted on a spit for lunch.
Trump's also showing that spineless, focus tested milquetoast types that consultants like to run are failures.
Our "Oh so smart' political consultants are the reason the democrat party has no bench strength. The only people dems have to put in front of the public are people over 60 years old.
Political consultants have hurt our side too - they give us gland handers who look good on TV but don't have two brain cells to rub together...
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Trump towers.
Just noting that, by your response, my remarks about Steffy & McCain hit a nerve.
If you'd kept quiet, nobody would have known.
You know, when you throw a rock at a pack of dogs, the one that yelps is the one that that it hit.
If he ever does have trouble getting donations, all he'd have to do is ask that if those who support him would send in $1, and $1 only, as a symbolic early voting, he'd be inundated - followed by a gigantic run on Depends by the Beltway Crowd.
More clearly stated, you are operating under a non-disclosure agreement. That's understandable.
But in general, I believe that an author who uses a ghost writer, particularly when the result is a tangible work (book, article, etc.) published and sold under his/her name, and who doesn't reveal the ghost writer's contribution, is clearly being dishonest to anyone who might read that work.
The case of a political speechwriter is different, since it's widely known and assumed that politicians routinely farm out their speeches to contract writers.
When a ghost is involved, there is always the question as to whose thoughts you are actually reading, as you alluded to in your original comment about Trump's book, and that's a fair point to make.
But at least Trump is honest enough to disclose his ghost writers for most (if not all) of his books. And that's more than you can say for people like Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.
THROW ALL THE POLITICAL BUMS OUT....ALL OF THEM!!! BOEHNER....McConnell and ALL THE REST!!! Eric Cantor wasn't even a good start......THROW THEM ALL OUTZ....THEY ARE CORRUPTED!! (except for Jeff Sessions and Tom Cotton.
I have NEVER heard that story about Larry Sinclair and Beua Biden!!!! Are you POSITIVE???
THROW THEM ALL OUT!! Except for Jeff Sessions and Tom Cotton!!
Who can be positive about anything? Check here. And if that interests you, research the unsolved murder of Donald Young, choir director at Barry's church in Chicago.
Amen.
You’re onto something there — “click here to donate $1 now”.
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