Posted on 08/23/2015 6:52:35 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
The good news for Jeb Bush is that he’s the perfect candidate for the Republican presidential nomination. The bad news is that he’s the perfect candidate in the year 2000.
That’s the counterfactual scenario that most Bush-watchers have spun over the years. Had Jeb won the 1994 race in which he first pursued Florida’s governorship, the theory goes, it would have been him rather than his older brother who became the GOP’s standard-bearer in 2000. Instead, Jeb narrowly lost the ’94 race to Democrat Lawton Chiles, George W. won his contest in Texas in the same year and the younger sibling looked on six years later as his brother ascended to the White House.
That historical twist may have permanently thwarted Jeb’s White House aspirations. It’s not just that the American people are inherently resistant to the dynastic impulse that would see three consecutive members of the Bush family serve as Republican presidents. It’s also that the legacy of Jeb’s family has ineluctably changed the dynamics within the GOP.
To understand the principle at work here, you have to recall that Jeb’s father, George H.W. Bush, was long regarded as an interloper by movement conservatives. Indeed, it was Bush 41 who coined the phrase “voodoo economics” as a criticism of Ronald Reagan’s economic policy and who pledged a “kinder, gentler America” in the wake of Reagan’s presidency (a promise that prompted Nancy Reagan to reply “Kinder than who?”).
For the conservative base, the elder Bush was a man not to be trusted,a principle only reaffirmed by the violation of his “Read my lips: no new taxes” pledge.
George W. Bush may have done a more thoroughgoing job of ingratiating himself to the right prior to taking up residency in the Oval Office, but by the time he departed office eight years later, many conservatives were starting to feel like they had been taken for a ride again.
The younger Bush had dramatically increased federal spending, presided over a government bailout of the financial sector and pushed through an unfunded entitlement expansion. Indeed, though it’s often forgotten now, the Tea Party movement arose just as much in reaction to the “big government conservatism” of President Bush and a Republican congress as it did to the excesses of Barack Obama. Where the Bush family is concerned, many conservatives have now taken on the mindset of “Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me.”
All of that means that Jeb Bush has a tougher row to hoe than any other candidate in the Republican field: He’s essentially saddled with defending three people’s records instead of one. And it doesn’t help matters any that on two of Bush’s signature issues — immigration and Common Core education standards — he’s advocating policies that make the conservative base deeply uncomfortable.
Here’s the irony: Take a close look at Bush’s record in Tallahassee — not to mention decades worth of writing, speeches and interviews — and you’ll discover a man far more in touch with movement conservatism than either his father or his brother.
What undermines all of that, however, is the rhetorical notes the former governor has struck throughout the campaign: claiming that he’s ready to “lose the primary to win the general”; describing illegal immigration as an “act of love”; referring to his own immigration prescription as “the grown-up plan.”
Fairly or not, many conservatives find in those words an implicit indication that Governor Bush isn’t especially fond of them; that they’re little more than an obstacle he has to overcome on the road to the White House. This, of course, is not necessarily fatal for a Republican presidential candidate. Indeed, both John McCain and Mitt Romney faced similar hurdles prior to earning their party’s nominations. There’s one big difference this time, however: the competition.
Romney triumphed over one of the weakest Republican presidential fields in recent memory. McCain shot to the nomination after Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson had flamed out, with neither Romney nor Mike Huckabee commanding wide enough popularity to give him a serious run for his money. Bush doesn’t have that luxury. Facing the likes of Marco Rubio, Scott Walker, Ted Cruz, John Kasich and literally a dozen others, he’ll have to do something more than fatiguing voters into submission.
The Jeb Bush campaign isn’t based on passion, inspiration or enthusiasm. It’s based on being just good enough for conservatives to reluctantly give in. In most years — and with most fields — that strategy would have a decent shot at working. But not in 2016. For the second time in his career, Jeb Bush is likely to become a victim of terrible timing.
Well we can fix it for old ¡Yeb.
Build a man a fire and he’ll be warm for a day.
Set a man on fire and he’ll be warm for the rest of his life.
Well done
“Fairly or not, many conservatives find in those words an implicit indication that Governor Bush isn’t especially fond of them; that they’re little more than an obstacle he has to overcome on the road to the White House. This, of course, is not necessarily fatal for a Republican presidential candidate. Indeed, both John McCain and Mitt Romney faced similar hurdles prior to earning their party’s nominations. There’s one big difference this time, however: the competition.”
The conservative base not being fond of them wasn’t fatal for President McCain’s and President Romney’s campaigns?
Did I miss something?
Peddling Common Core was the antithesis of conservative education policy. He says it was not meant to ever be run out of DC by the bureaucracy but he never said that until he ran for president.
Jeb has been mush on immigration, mush on every hot button issue that Trump has passionately led with. In fact, Jeb is slow it seems and looking mostly lost in all venues, from the speeches, to the fair, to the nursing home audience.
It’s true. His audiences are all “sleeping”.
Thank you for the reminder. We needed that and clearly it has been buried.
Sorry but Barb and Laura were not prolife. Doubt the daughters were, and Consuella Bush’s stand is unknown.
Why is Jeb’s left hand white in that picture?
“Indeed, both John McCain and Mitt Romney faced similar hurdles prior to earning their party’s nominations.”
And they both lost.
Pro-amnesty, pro-open borders, pro-crony capitalism, pro common core; what’s not to like?
Cruz is my first choice, but if Trump is seeking out advice from Cruz and Jeff Sessions, he’d be very acceptable.
One thing is for sure; our enemies will learn to respect the USA again.
"sorry about your luck" /s
Who is your candidate??
I’m not sold on anyone. I was interested in Cruz, Jindal, and Walker, but no one has sealed the deal. Cruz and Walker have been real disappointments the last few months.
Cruz has a Conservative Review rating of 96%. Unless you are Attila the Hun you would be hard pressed to find a Candidate farther to the right.
So you are saying that you will vote for a RINO, if there is no one to the left of them?
Cruz missed the vote about Loretta Lynch. He signed on to fast-tracking Obama's trade pact. He's playing footsie with a socialist and the media. He's acting all RINOish. I'm just not convinced.
Cruz is about as Conservative as you can get. If you can't be happy with someone who agrees with you 96% of the time, I suggest you avoid marriage and politics.
I would vote for Cruz over Trump. Jindal over Trump. Probably tie between Jindal Cruz as I think they are both rock ribbed conservative.
I would also have no problem voting Trump in the General against any Democrat. He may not be as Conservative as I want, by a long stretch, but he is foremost against PC, and illegal immigration and Trump doesn't do anything half way.
Besides it would be a great show every time he told a reported in a press conference ‘Boy that was a dumb question. You know, you are really dumb.’.
He isn't ? Then why did he talk about banning the Confederate flag? Why did he say we were taunting the poor Muslims? Why did he send a gay activist at his pageant to take out a Christian and promote gay marriage? Why did he say Mexicans are fabulous and hard working. (direct quotes) Why did he start talking spotlessly and refuse to say anything to offend gay activists in an interview. (and they gay activists know it and don't criticize him)
Face it, Trump is very politically correct. Only the media claims otherwise.
"Just good enough" isn't good enough.
No more Bushes, no more Clintons.
As much as I became disgusted with W after his re-election, at least he had a good side. Jeb is just an oaf.
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