Posted on 08/18/2015 1:11:38 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
It's good to be Ted Cruz.
He may not have the buzziest campaign of the 2016 cycle thus far, ceding the stage to standouts — like Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, Ben Carson, and Carly Fiorina — who have hit a populist nerve. But Trump, Carson, and Fiorina — even more so than Sanders — are outsiders, and despite Cruz's penchant for making enemies and alienating people, he's playing a deeply inside game.
It's working like a charm. And his fellow insiders should be at least mildly terrified.
Here's the Cruz playbook. First, count on the other insider insurgents to flame out or fade. That's already happening to poor Rand Paul. (Things are so dire in the Paul camp that he's had to fall back on his father as a fundraising surrogate.) It's happening, in slow motion, to Scott Walker, whose lunkheaded approval of $80 million in public subsidies for a new NBA arena is just the latest indicator that he's not as conservative or compelling a candidate as his supporters had hoped.
The next puzzle piece to fall into place is Rick Perry. Even for Cruz, who has happily made himself a hate figure in the oh-so-collegial Senate, dumping on Perry would be bad form. It's essential to the Cruz campaign that Perry take himself out — and that's nearly a done deal, now, too.
With Cruz holding steady in the polls, the stage is just about set for him to emerge as the only "true conservative" in the race with the brains and the chops to match the purity. Although those qualities definitely prevent Cruz from beating Trump or Fiorina in the invisible populist primary, establishment types know full well that Cruz is the only viable candidate who the right's populists and elites can both stomach.
Of course, if Marco Rubio woke up tomorrow and decided to run to the right, that calculus would be upset in a hurry. But Rubio can't do that. He has to win the invisible elitist primary first. Rubio's playbook required that he keep pace with Jeb Bush, then let the party come to terms with the fact that Rubio had all the advantages of a Bush without the liability of the Bush name. But then Ohio Gov. John Kasich entered the race and showed surprising strength in the elitist primary, which makes Rubio's task more difficult and complicated — great news for Ted Cruz, because it means Rubio has to tack more to the center to protect his slice of the anti-populist vote from going either to Bush or Kasich.
Not long ago, people were convinced that more moderate candidates were destined to win GOP primaries. John McCain's and Mitt Romney's victories indicated that conservatives had to make do with vice presidential nominees. But neither McCain nor Romney had to contend with someone as savvy and put-together as Cruz. You don't have to be an Oscar-winning screenwriter to visualize how Cruz would have brought the boom down on those two.
Bush and Rubio are harder nuts for him to crack. But his ace in the hole is the populist vote, which at this point seems decidedly unwilling to settle for a Palin-esque consolation prize.
Then there are the billionaires. When Walker, Perry, and company falter and fail, the donors who backed them won't just take their marbles and go home. In fact, they're much more likely to bail beforehand, throwing their support to the most conservative candidate they think can stave off a full-blown populist revolt, sucking the disillusioned and disaffected back into the fold. And again, unless Rubio cuts right in a hurry, there's only one place for them to turn: Cruz.
That's why people jumped at the chance to believe recent (bogus) rumors that the billionaires, led by casino magnate Steve Wynn, had already decided to back Cruz. The logic behind that kind of backroom deal isn't some farfetched conspiracy theory. It's an open secret.
If you're a Republican who thinks Cruz can win in the general election, this is all great news. But if you don't, it's fairly scary. Because it means a sure loser has the surest path to the nomination — and the confidence to pursue it with no reservations.
Yes, that's right. Barring some unfathomable twist, Cruz will lose. For all his brilliant campaign strategy, that's one contingency Cruz still can't crack.
I don’t see cruz winning. Not getting the traction so far, and this has always been jebito’s race to lose. If he is nominated by some miracle, he doesn’t have the populist appeal to win the general.
He’s still a young man and could win a later election. It just isn’t his time.
“Cruz will lose. For all his brilliant campaign strategy, that’s one contingency Cruz still can’t crack.”
Against Hillary? Running from her jail cell? And has anyone heard Hillary on the stump - as stiff and unappealing as a broom.
Plus, I doubt Hillary has EVER debated a conservative on neutral turf. She is in for a big surprise when her panders don’t fly.
My support for Cruz is unwavering. Trump may have some great ideas, but he is late to the party. Cruz has towed the line and soldiered on for true conservative causes! I’m not going to abandon ship for a guy with more Hollywood baggage than Kim Kardashian!
You can bring a pure and perfect sword to a siege but the first weapon you will use is a battering ram.
If we get Cruz versus Hillary Clinton, a few choice words by Cruz would discombobulate Hillary in no time flat.
Yeah, I agree with that. I’m certain Cruz would be gracious enough to have him in his administration.
I have no doubt that Cruz could win the election, but despite what this author claims, I don't see a path to the nomination for Cruz.
I think that's been his plan from the beginning.
Ummmm.....Cruz got plenty of traction post debate(see the NBC and Fox News post debate polls where Cruz got a big bounce in each case).
If Cruz is nominated, he wins. Who is going to beat him? Hilary? Don’t make me laugh. Bernie? That sucker may win the race for president of Cuba not the US.
CNN/ORC poll.
The survey finds Trump with the support of 24% of Republican registered voters. His nearest competitor, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, stands 11 points behind at 13%. Just behind Bush, retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson has 9%, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker 8%, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul 6%, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, former tech CEO Carly Fiorina and Ohio Gov. John Kasich all land at 5%, with former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee rounding out the top 10 at 4%.
I don’t think it’ll be Bernie or piaps at this point. Piaps is under pressure to bail, and I think she might.
My thinking has changed. Fauxahontas or algore will be the rat nominee. The rats do successions pretty quickly. E.g. toricelli.
To an extent it’s going to depend on how sustainable Trump’s support is. No one knows what will happen, but there is going to be plenty of twists and turns, ups and downs, with different candidates rising or falling as the various debates unfold leading to and after the Iowa caucus. This will be a long hard slog. I rather fancy Ted Cruz’s chances in a long drawn out, trench warfare fight. He has more stamina, determination and sustainability than anyone else. We will see I guess.
Go Cruz!
Keep up the good work, The grass-roots will be heard soon. We will overcome all the media darlings
Cruz Country!
Just about the whole field of candidates would be great cabinet members. Jeb Bush could be minister of grounds maintenance and Lindsey Graham could be Restroom porcelain sanitation.
And I would still make Donald Trump ambassador to the UN.
They started out in England and still publish an edition over there. A lot of the stuff on the website doesn't actually appear in the print version.
But neither McCain nor Romney had to contend with someone as savvy and put-together as Cruz. You don't have to be an Oscar-winning screenwriter to visualize how Cruz would have brought the boom down on those two.
Sure, if you take their weaknesses into account and assume Ted doesn't have any of his own.
Hillary is an old white woman definitely not presidential material in our PC times.
LOL!
That would be a good place for Miss Lindsey. When I was in my twenties I worked in a big department store, and security was always catching his types in the restrooms. I assume he'd be bonded, though.
"And I would still make Donald Trump ambassador to the UN."
I would have no problem with Trump in the UN causing heart attacks among the Third World terrorist supporters.
The next puzzle piece to fall into place is Rick Perry. Even for Cruz, who has happily made himself a hate figure in the oh-so-collegial Senate, dumping on Perry would be bad form. It’s essential to the Cruz campaign that Perry take himself out — and that’s nearly a done deal, now, too.
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I saw Rick Perry being interviewed by Charles Payne on Fox News this afternoon and Perry pretty well completed the job of taking himself out. Payne tried to get him to clarify how he (Perry) would deal with inducements to illegal immigration and what he (Perry) would do with the many millions of illegals already here. Perry WOULD NOT ANSWER those questions and repeatedly retreated to “secure the border”.
The illegal alien problem is multi-faceted and must be dealt with on multiple fronts. Perry clearly doesn’t want to do anything to antagonize his “main stream” Republican supporters (e.g., National Chamber of Commerce) who flourish on the illegal alien presence.
Rick Perry, put your ridiculous glasses away... you’re finished and you did it yourself.
I used to really like Rick but he has just become unappealing.
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