Posted on 08/10/2015 2:12:44 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
A Trumptastic start to the most interesting week of presidential polling this year so far, which should answer the question, “How much does a debate watched by 24 million people really matter?” If you’re a Trump-hater, good news: This was an online poll, and you know to be wary of online polls. Wait for your Gallup/NYT/WaPo/CBS/NBC/ABC/CNN/Fox polls before forming any judgments.
If you’re a Trump-lover, one word: Yuge.
If you’re having trouble reading the graph, that’s Trump with 32 percent (up from 25 last week), Jeb Bush with 11, Ben Carson with nine, and Scott Walker and Marco Rubio tied with six. Is that result plausible, something we should expect other polls this week to replicate? Well, you tell me. Trump did have double-digit leads in several pre-debate polls last week — 11 points, specifically, according to CBS, Fox, and Bloomberg and even bigger leads in some others (14 points in Monmouth and 16 points in Rasmussen). A 21-point lead now wouldn’t be an unfathomable jump from those starting points, especially given the size of the debate’s audience. Likewise, Morning Consult detected some modest upward movement here for Carly Fiorina, rising from one percent last week to three percent now along with a sharp spike in her favorable rating. That’s the sort of thing you’d expect an accurate poll to capture given the consensus view that Fiorina’s performance was the biggest standout on Thursday night.
On the other hand, the whole reason Team Trump did so much grumbling on Thursday night was that they thought Megyn Kelly poisoned the TV audience against him by confronting him with things he’d said about women. As Greg Gutfeld put it afterward, Trump’s boasts about having clearly won the debate notwithstanding, “which team lost? the one complaining about the refs.” Could be that even Trump’s own campaign misjudged how effective he was at the debate, but a decisive win to the tune of seven more points in the polls would be … surprising. Then again, if you’re one of the people who thinks polls are still mostly about name recognition at this point, it’s not surprising at all. If there are nine random people on a stage plus a guy who’s been nationally famous for 30 years, the famous guy is apt to stand out in people’s minds afterward.
More polls to come later this week, hopefully even later today. Stand by.
he he he he he he he he he he ................
Cruz slow and steady on the increase.
ROTFL. Jeb Bush is probably as familiar a name as is Donald Trump. And he is tanking, gloriously so, after his performance and then insulting Trump.
That's why the reputation of the MSM is in decline...they think they are the refs. They aren't.
Hole Cow! This Trumpster guy is incorrigible! But Luntz assured me Trump was 80% toast after the debate! What’s going on??
Cruz coming in very good. I think folks are paying attention.
Yeb headed toward the crapper.
Fox News fail, Krauthammer fail!
Love seeing Trump’s and Cruz’ numbers climb.
ROTFLMAO!!
As he said - online poll. I don’t know if Trump is doing better, worse or the same, but I would not rely on an Internet poll for anything. No way to know if the respondents are conservatives, liberals, Dems, GOP, alive, dead... So it is a little morale boot for supporters of some candidates, a disappointment for the supporters of others, and meaningless as far a really telling us the current state of the campaign.
Not surprised. The ones who I thought did well got a boost in the poll. If you got by facial expressions, Jeb looked like a stiff on the stage. Probably didn’t know what day of the week it was.
Sigh.
32 percent of those polled comes to a whopping 254 people nationwide.
What we got was a "Debate The Moderators!".
Did Jeb! arrive too late for make-up? He was colorless and pastry-faced, like the Poppin’ Fresh Doughboy.
Add in second choices, and Trump is in the forties. He does have bad negatives, in and out of the party. But, in terms of positioning himself to win the nomination, he is in a good position.
Every poll today has Trump keeping his sizable lead or growing it. Every one. But yeah let’s hope Luntz’s focus group of 20 was more accurate lol
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.