Posted on 05/06/2015 1:40:15 PM PDT by Kaslin
As a public service, here is a brief guide for Americans to tomorrow's British elections. Not that you really need one. The operating principle is easy enough to understand -- like the British taste for delicacies like toad in the hole, bubble-and-squeak and spotted dick. Not to mention specialties like kippers salty enough to make the Dead Sea seem alkaline. As I said, easy to understand. Like the game of cricket, whose rules are as clear to an American as a London fog.
Once the election returns are in tomorrow night, it's just a matter of coalition-building, a game that resembles musical chairs. All the political parties that poll a share of the vote, however minuscule, proceed to circle each other warily until "Rule, Britannia" stops playing and then begin scrambling for seats in the next cabinet. ("I'll give you Home for Defence with Work and Pensions thrown in....")
You won't need a scorecard to tell all the players but an encyclopedia, considering the number of political parties involved. In that respect, the game of piecing together the next British cabinet bears a distinct resemblance to Monopoly as the players negotiate for the most prized properties on the board -- like Park Place and Boardwalk -- but may have to settle for lesser but still strategic assets like Baltic and Mediterranean.
To keep up with all this politicking, you'll need to know the cast of characters in this protracted drama. Some will be familiar faces, like the current prime minister David Cameron, who is forever trying to pass himself off as a Man of the People, but it's hopeless. He's got the map of Mayfair on his ruddy face and a plush accent to go with it. You'd no more mistake him for a plebeian as you would a pub for a wine bar.
To quote Hugo Rifkind -- a long-time observer of British politics, society and mores, which have a way of blending into one highly hierarchical culture -- the prime minister is "beleaguered by accusations that he's too rich and privileged to understand anybody else. He often appears to genuinely not understand these accusations, thereby creating the strong impression that they're true."
A poor little rich boy, the PM understands that the best argument for his re-election is the quality of the alternatives. Such as:
Ed Miliband, who won his post as leader of the other major party -- Labour -- by defeating his older brother. Blood, it seems, is thinner than water, or at least political ambition. That's been true enough since the rise of the Tudors in not so jolly old England -- but now Labour's appeal has dropped precipitately where it was once strongest: Scotland.
It seems the Scots have been bitten by the nationalist bug and produced a party of their own with a program of its own: independence. Which has cut into Labour's support there dramatically. Nicola Sturgeon is not a fish but the leader of the Scottish National Party, which almost achieved its goal of Scottish independence last year, drawing 45 percent of the vote. Now the same party that sought to leave the United Kingdom seeks a role in governing it. Such are the weird workings of nationalism, whose excesses may leave the nation it professes to love alone and isolated, cut off from the empire that once sheltered and indulged it.
Then there's Nick Clegg, currently deputy prime minister and leader of the Liberal Democrats, the alternative to both major parties. Mr. Clegg was the great hope of British politics some five years ago, but he's since faded into irrelevance as nationalist parties have sprouted like weeds, undercutting any appeal a Third Force might once have had. Still, the Liberal Democrats may be needed by the Big Two to form Britain's next government, and so find themselves in an influential bargaining position.
The rest of this overcrowded field is filled with the same kind of self-destructive nationalist parties that no longer value the safe harbor the British Empire once afforded them. The result could be a balkanized Britain as various ethnic, geographic and linguistic subdivisions of the British isles decide they're separate nations and try to strike out on their own: the Welsh, Northern Irish, you name it, they proliferate.
It might take us former colonials to appreciate the stability the British Empire once lent the world as less benign empires now re-emerge: the old Stalinist Russia, rampant again under Comrade/President/Czar Putin; a new Caliphate so bloody-minded that any true son of Saladin the Magnificent would be ashamed to claim it....
Lost is the balance of power that once assured a measure of peace, however uncertain, in the world. Empires like the Ottoman and Austro-Hungarian contained feuding nationalities by tolerating them. The British Empire, too, has been an invaluable source of stability in the world. It wasn't until those in charge of it abused their power that we Americans were driven to leave it, and then only after long hesitation. (Has there ever been a more reluctant bunch of revolutionaries than our Founding Fathers?)
All of which explains why some of us are rooting for the Brits to muddle through, which was once a specialty of theirs, and hold together somehow. It's a common enough sentiment among those of us who may be outside the Empire now but remember it fondly. It's called Anglophilia.
I once met a Jewish tailor in Mexico City after he had fled Vilna in Poland to follow the British around the world in search of a safe haven during the war-torn 1940s. He had tried Canada for a while, but "Montreal has only one season: winter." Something he said has stuck with me: "The English are a cold people, but they have character." And to some of us, character is still all.
Perplexed now, times 2.
Terrible piece of writing.
Election 2015: Labour’s 12-point lead [in London] as battle for London seats hots up
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/labours-12point-lead-as-battle-for-london-hots-up-10201129.html
Seat-by-seat:
http://electionforecast.co.uk/tables/predicted_vote_by_seat.html
amen...... obfuscating obsuccation
Vote UKIP, that’s all one needs to know.
Con 294 Lab 269 SNP 54 LD 8 UKIP 2 PC 2 Grn 1. I wish Farage could do better but the structure of the election works agaonst it. This is my algorhythm for the vote in the UK tomorrow... It could change a little
Except that UKIP- are commies.
Leading Share Seat Region 2010 Conservatives 40 Boston and Skegness East Midlands Conservatives Conservatives 44 Bosworth East Midlands Conservatives Conservatives 51 Charnwood East Midlands Conservatives Conservatives 55 Daventry East Midlands Conservatives Conservatives 47 Derbyshire Dales East Midlands Conservatives Conservatives 46 Gainsborough East Midlands Conservatives Conservatives 46 Grantham and Stamford East Midlands Conservatives Conservatives 49 Harborough East Midlands Conservatives Conservatives 41 High Peak East Midlands Conservatives Conservatives 43 Kettering East Midlands Conservatives Conservatives 45 Loughborough East Midlands Conservatives Conservatives 43 Louth and Horncastle East Midlands Conservatives Conservatives 48 Mid Derbyshire East Midlands Conservatives Conservatives 49 Newark East Midlands Conservatives Conservatives 36 Northampton North East Midlands Conservatives Conservatives 50 Rushcliffe East Midlands Conservatives Conservatives 49 Rutland and Melton East Midlands Conservatives Conservatives 53 Sleaford and North Hykeham East Midlands Conservatives Conservatives 46 South Derbyshire East Midlands Conservatives Conservatives 46 Wellingborough East Midlands Conservatives Conservatives 47 Basildon and Billericay East of England Conservatives Conservatives 44 Braintree East of England Conservatives Conservatives 52 Brentwood and Ongar East of England Conservatives Conservatives 41 Broadland East of England Conservatives Conservatives 53 Broxbourne East of England Conservatives Conservatives 44 Bury St Edmunds East of England Conservatives Conservatives 45 Castle Point East of England Conservatives Conservatives 47 Central Suffolk and North Ipswich East of England Conservatives Conservatives 43 Chelmsford East of England Conservatives Conservatives 51 Epping Forest East of England Conservatives Conservatives 36 Great Yarmouth East of England Conservatives Conservatives 44 Harlow East of England Conservatives Conservatives 42 Harwich and North Essex East of England Conservatives Conservatives 49 Hemel Hempstead East of England Conservatives Conservatives 52 Hertford and Stortford East of England Conservatives Conservatives 55 Hertsmere East of England Conservatives Conservatives 53 Hitchin and Harpenden East of England Conservatives Conservatives 49 Huntingdon East of England Conservatives Conservatives 52 Maldon East of England Conservatives Conservatives 49 Mid Bedfordshire East of England Conservatives Conservatives 52 North East Bedfordshire East of England Conservatives Conservatives 36 Norwich North East of England Conservatives Conservatives 33 Peterborough East of England Conservatives Conservatives 53 Rayleigh and Wickford East of England Conservatives Conservatives 44 Rochford and Southend East East of England Conservatives Conservatives 52 Saffron Walden East of England Conservatives Conservatives 40 South Basildon and East Thurrock East of England Conservatives Conservatives 43 Southend West East of England Conservatives Conservatives 40 St Albans East of England Conservatives Conservatives 39 Stevenage East of England Conservatives Conservatives 42 Suffolk Coastal East of England Conservatives Conservatives 32 Thurrock East of England Conservatives Conservatives 33 Watford East of England Conservatives Conservatives 50 Welwyn Hatfield East of England Conservatives Conservatives 48 West Suffolk East of England Conservatives Conservatives 49 Witham East of England Conservatives Conservatives 50 Battersea London Conservatives Conservatives 57 Beckenham London Conservatives Conservatives 46 Bexleyheath and Crayford London Conservatives Conservatives 53 Bromley and Chislehurst London Conservatives Conservatives 61 Chelsea and Fulham London Conservatives Conservatives 49 Chingford and Woodford Green London Conservatives Conservatives 46 Chipping Barnet London Conservatives Conservatives 53 Cities of London and Westminster London Conservatives Conservatives 42 Croydon Central London Conservatives Conservatives 38 Ealing Central and Acton London Conservatives Conservatives 46 Enfield, Southgate London Conservatives Conservatives 43 Finchley and Golders Green London Conservatives Conservatives 41 Harrow East London Conservatives Conservatives 47 Hornchurch and Upminster London Conservatives Conservatives 42 Ilford North London Conservatives Conservatives 52 Kensington London Conservatives Conservatives 50 Old Bexley and Sidcup London Conservatives Conservatives 56 Orpington London Conservatives Conservatives 51 Putney London Conservatives Conservatives 53 Richmond Park London Conservatives Conservatives 50 Romford London Conservatives Conservatives 53 Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner London Conservatives Conservatives 46 Uxbridge and South Ruislip London Conservatives Conservatives 48 Wimbledon London Conservatives Conservatives 36 Berwick-upon-Tweed North East Liberal Democrats Conservatives 50 Hexham North East Conservatives Conservatives 51 Altrincham and Sale West North West Conservatives Conservatives 40 Blackpool North and Cleveleys North West Conservatives Conservatives 37 Cheadle North West Liberal Democrats Conservatives 47 Congleton North West Conservatives Conservatives 42 Crewe and Nantwich North West Conservatives Conservatives 48 Eddisbury North West Conservatives Conservatives 49 Fylde North West Conservatives Conservatives 48 Macclesfield North West Conservatives Conservatives 41 Pendle North West Conservatives Conservatives 51 Penrith and The Border North West Conservatives Conservatives 48 Ribble Valley North West Conservatives Conservatives 41 Rossendale and Darwen North West Conservatives Conservatives 43 South Ribble North West Conservatives Conservatives 54 Tatton North West Conservatives Conservatives 50 Wyre and Preston North North West Conservatives Conservatives 31 Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk Scotland Liberal Democrats Conservatives 47 Aldershot South East Conservatives Conservatives 55 Arundel and South Downs South East Conservatives Conservatives 49 Ashford South East Conservatives Conservatives 53 Aylesbury South East Conservatives Conservatives 50 Banbury South East Conservatives Conservatives 51 Basingstoke South East Conservatives Conservatives 60 Beaconsfield South East Conservatives Conservatives 48 Bexhill and Battle South East Conservatives Conservatives 47 Bognor Regis and Littlehampton South East Conservatives Conservatives 51 Bracknell South East Conservatives Conservatives 37 Brighton, Kemptown South East Conservatives Conservatives 41 Canterbury South East Conservatives Conservatives 43 Chatham and Aylesford South East Conservatives Conservatives 58 Chesham and Amersham South East Conservatives Conservatives 54 Chichester South East Conservatives Conservatives 44 Crawley South East Conservatives Conservatives 45 Dartford South East Conservatives Conservatives 41 Dover South East Conservatives Conservatives 56 East Hampshire South East Conservatives Conservatives 55 Epsom and Ewell South East Conservatives Conservatives 61 Esher and Walton South East Conservatives Conservatives 49 Fareham South East Conservatives Conservatives 49 Faversham and Mid Kent South East Conservatives Conservatives 42 Folkestone and Hythe South East Conservatives Conservatives 41 Gillingham and Rainham South East Conservatives Conservatives 48 Gosport South East Conservatives Conservatives 42 Gravesham South East Conservatives Conservatives 52 Guildford South East Conservatives Conservatives 45 Havant South East Conservatives Conservatives 56 Henley South East Conservatives Conservatives 50 Horsham South East Conservatives Conservatives 39 Isle of Wight South East Conservatives Conservatives 57 Maidenhead South East Conservatives Conservatives 44 Maidstone and The Weald South East Conservatives Conservatives 52 Meon Valley South East Conservatives Conservatives 52 Mid Sussex South East Conservatives Conservatives 42 Milton Keynes North South East Conservatives Conservatives 55 Mole Valley South East Conservatives Conservatives 50 New Forest East South East Conservatives Conservatives 53 Newbury South East Conservatives Conservatives 59 North East Hampshire South East Conservatives Conservatives 40 Portsmouth North South East Conservatives Conservatives 43 Reading East South East Conservatives Conservatives 55 Reigate South East Conservatives Conservatives 36 Rochester and Strood South East Conservatives Conservatives 50 Romsey and Southampton North South East Conservatives Conservatives 54 Runnymede and Weybridge South East Conservatives Conservatives 58 Sevenoaks South East Conservatives Conservatives 42 Sittingbourne and Sheppey South East Conservatives Conservatives 34 South Thanet South East Conservatives Conservatives 47 Spelthorne South East Conservatives Conservatives 57 Surrey Heath South East Conservatives Conservatives 54 Tonbridge and Malling South East Conservatives Conservatives 55 Tunbridge Wells South East Conservatives Conservatives 51 Wantage South East Conservatives Conservatives 53 Wealden South East Conservatives Conservatives 48 Winchester South East Conservatives Conservatives 58 Windsor South East Conservatives Conservatives 60 Witney South East Conservatives Conservatives 49 Woking South East Conservatives Conservatives 54 Wokingham South East Conservatives Conservatives 48 Worthing West South East Conservatives Conservatives 49 Wycombe South East Conservatives Conservatives 48 Bournemouth East South West Conservatives Conservatives 44 Bridgwater and West Somerset South West Conservatives Conservatives 37 Camborne and Redruth South West Conservatives Conservatives 49 Central Devon South West Conservatives Conservatives 43 Chippenham South West Liberal Democrats Conservatives 54 Christchurch South West Conservatives Conservatives 55 Devizes South West Conservatives Conservatives 50 East Devon South West Conservatives Conservatives 43 Filton and Bradley Stoke South West Conservatives Conservatives 43 Forest of Dean South West Conservatives Conservatives 39 Gloucester South West Conservatives Conservatives 42 Kingswood South West Conservatives Conservatives 41 Mid Dorset and North Poole South West Liberal Democrats Conservatives 45 Newton Abbot South West Conservatives Conservatives 47 Poole South West Conservatives Conservatives 48 Salisbury South West Conservatives Conservatives 45 Somerton and Frome South West Liberal Democrats Conservatives 41 South Dorset South West Conservatives Conservatives 34 St Austell and Newquay South West Liberal Democrats Conservatives 40 Taunton Deane South West Liberal Democrats Conservatives 49 Tewkesbury South West Conservatives Conservatives 53 The Cotswolds South West Conservatives Conservatives 50 Tiverton and Honiton South West Conservatives Conservatives 46 Torridge and West Devon South West Conservatives Conservatives 47 Totnes South West Conservatives Conservatives 42 Truro and Falmouth South West Conservatives Conservatives 40 Wells South West Liberal Democrats Conservatives 49 West Dorset South West Conservatives Conservatives 45 Weston-Super-Mare South West Conservatives Conservatives 36 Aberconwy Wales Conservatives Conservatives 46 Monmouth Wales Conservatives Conservatives 39 Montgomeryshire Wales Conservatives Conservatives 40 Preseli Pembrokeshire Wales Conservatives Conservatives 49 Aldridge-Brownhills West Midlands Conservatives Conservatives 48 Bromsgrove West Midlands Conservatives Conservatives 42 Burton West Midlands Conservatives Conservatives 40 Halesowen and Rowley Regis West Midlands Conservatives Conservatives 48 Hereford and South Herefordshire West Midlands Conservatives Conservatives 51 Kenilworth and Southam West Midlands Conservatives Conservatives 51 Lichfield West Midlands Conservatives Conservatives 50 Ludlow West Midlands Conservatives Conservatives 48 Meriden West Midlands Conservatives Conservatives 51 Mid Worcestershire West Midlands Conservatives Conservatives 52 North Herefordshire West Midlands Conservatives Conservatives 42 Redditch West Midlands Conservatives Conservatives 42 Rugby West Midlands Conservatives Conservatives 41 Shrewsbury and Atcham West Midlands Conservatives Conservatives 39 Solihull West Midlands Liberal Democrats Conservatives 53 South Staffordshire West Midlands Conservatives Conservatives 42 Stafford West Midlands Conservatives Conservatives 45 Staffordshire Moorlands West Midlands Conservatives Conservatives 47 Stone West Midlands Conservatives Conservatives 41 Stourbridge West Midlands Conservatives Conservatives 53 Stratford-on-Avon West Midlands Conservatives Conservatives 50 Sutton Coldfield West Midlands Conservatives Conservatives 44 Tamworth West Midlands Conservatives Conservatives 46 The Wrekin West Midlands Conservatives Conservatives 44 Warwick and Leamington West Midlands Conservatives Conservatives 40 Worcester West Midlands Conservatives Conservatives 40 Wyre Forest West Midlands Conservatives Conservatives 40 Beverley and Holderness Yorkshire and The Humber Conservatives Conservatives 39 Brigg and Goole Yorkshire and The Humber Conservatives Conservatives 37 Calder Valley Yorkshire and The Humber Conservatives Conservatives 38 Cleethorpes Yorkshire and The Humber Conservatives Conservatives 36 Colne Valley Yorkshire and The Humber Conservatives Conservatives 41 East Yorkshire Yorkshire and The Humber Conservatives Conservatives 43 Elmet and Rothwell Yorkshire and The Humber Conservatives Conservatives 46 Haltemprice and Howden Yorkshire and The Humber Conservatives Conservatives 46 Harrogate and Knaresborough Yorkshire and The Humber Conservatives Conservatives 41 Pudsey Yorkshire and The Humber Conservatives Conservatives 52 Richmond (Yorks) Yorkshire and The Humber Conservatives Conservatives 36 Scarborough and Whitby Yorkshire and The Humber Conservatives Conservatives 46 Selby and Ainsty Yorkshire and The Humber Conservatives Conservatives 41 Shipley Yorkshire and The Humber Conservatives Conservatives 48 Skipton and Ripon Yorkshire and The Humber Conservatives Conservatives 49 Thirsk and Malton Yorkshire and The Humber Conservatives Labour 43 Amber Valley East Midlands Conservatives Labour 46 Ashfield East Midlands Labour Labour 52 Bassetlaw East Midlands Labour Labour 54 Bolsover East Midlands Labour Labour 40 Broxtowe East Midlands Conservatives Labour 48 Chesterfield East Midlands Labour Labour 42 Corby East Midlands Conservatives Labour 41 Derby North East Midlands Labour Labour 40 Erewash East Midlands Conservatives Labour 48 Gedling East Midlands Labour Labour 57 Leicester East East Midlands Labour Labour 44 Lincoln East Midlands Conservatives Labour 45 Mansfield East Midlands Labour Labour 43 North East Derbyshire East Midlands Labour Labour 51 Nottingham East East Midlands Labour Labour 56 Sheffield, Brightside and Hillsborough East Midlands Labour Labour 42 Sherwood East Midlands Conservatives Labour 36 Bedford East of England Conservatives Labour 37 Ipswich East of England Conservatives Labour 51 Luton North East of England Labour Labour 37 Waveney East of England Conservatives Labour 53 Barking London Labour Labour 52 Bethnal Green and Bow London Labour Labour 52 Brent Central London Liberal Democrats Labour 41 Brentford and Isleworth London Conservatives Labour 62 Camberwell and Peckham London Labour Labour 40 Dagenham and Rainham London Labour Labour 53 Dulwich and West Norwood London Labour Labour 58 Ealing, Southall London Labour Labour 69 East Ham London Labour Labour 57 Edmonton London Labour Labour 47 Eltham London Labour Labour 41 Enfield North London Conservatives Labour 51 Erith and Thamesmead London Labour Labour 50 Feltham and Heston London Labour Labour 52 Greenwich and Woolwich London Labour Labour 62 Hackney North and Stoke Newington London Labour Labour 48 Hammersmith London Labour Labour 43 Hampstead and Kilburn London Labour Labour 53 Hayes and Harlington London Labour Labour 47 Hendon London Conservatives Labour 44 Holborn and St Pancras London Labour Labour 37 Hornsey and Wood Green London Liberal Democrats Labour 56 Islington North London Labour Labour 47 Lewisham East London Labour Labour 58 Lewisham, Deptford London Labour Labour 52 Leyton and Wanstead London Labour Labour 58 Mitcham and Morden London Labour Labour 45 Poplar and Limehouse London Labour Labour 48 Streatham London Labour Labour 51 Tooting London Labour Labour 66 Tottenham London Labour Labour 55 Vauxhall London Labour Labour 56 Walthamstow London Labour Labour 63 West Ham London Labour Labour 49 Westminster North London Labour Labour 48 Bishop Auckland North East Labour Labour 55 Blaydon North East Labour Labour 54 Blyth Valley North East Labour Labour 54 City of Durham North East Labour Labour 48 Darlington North East Labour Labour 62 Easington North East Labour Labour 58 Gateshead North East Labour Labour 45 Hartlepool North East Labour Labour 59 Houghton and Sunderland South North East Labour Labour 57 Jarrow North East Labour Labour 55 Middlesbrough North East Labour Labour 47 Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland North East Labour Labour 54 Newcastle upon Tyne Central North East Labour Labour 56 North Durham North East Labour Labour 44 Redcar North East Liberal Democrats Labour 54 Sedgefield North East Labour Labour 55 South Shields North East Labour Labour 49 Stockton North North East Labour Labour 50 Sunderland Central North East Labour Labour 49 Tynemouth North East Labour Labour 59 Wansbeck North East Labour Labour 54 Washington and Sunderland West North East Labour Labour 51 Ashton-under-Lyne North West Labour Labour 52 Barrow and Furness North West Labour Labour 68 Birkenhead North West Labour Labour 56 Blackburn North West Labour Labour 57 Blackley and Broughton North West Labour Labour 50 Bolton North East North West Labour Labour 68 Bootle North West Labour Labour 41 Burnley North West Liberal Democrats Labour 40 Bury North North West Conservatives Labour 39 Carlisle North West Conservatives Labour 48 Chorley North West Labour Labour 46 City of Chester North West Conservatives Labour 49 Copeland North West Labour Labour 55 Denton and Reddish North West Labour Labour 50 Ellesmere Port and Neston North West Labour Labour 62 Garston and Halewood North West Labour Labour 60 Halton North West Labour Labour 48 Heywood and Middleton North West Labour Labour 48 Hyndburn North West Labour Labour 73 Knowsley North West Labour Labour 42 Lancaster and Fleetwood North West Conservatives Labour 55 Leigh North West Labour Labour 64 Liverpool, Riverside North West Labour Labour 55 Makerfield North West Labour Labour 59 Manchester Central North West Labour Labour 59 Manchester, Gorton North West Labour Labour 40 Morecambe and Lunesdale North West Conservatives Labour 40 Oldham East and Saddleworth North West Labour Labour 55 Preston North West Labour Labour 44 Rochdale North West Labour Labour 49 Salford and Eccles North West Labour Labour 48 Sefton Central North West Labour Labour 59 St Helens North North West Labour Labour 47 Stalybridge and Hyde North West Labour Labour 50 Stockport North West Labour Labour 54 Stretford and Urmston North West Labour Labour 59 Wallasey North West Labour Labour 51 Warrington North North West Labour Labour 40 Weaver Vale North West Conservatives Labour 50 West Lancashire North West Labour Labour 51 Wigan North West Labour Labour 50 Wirral South North West Labour Labour 47 Workington North West Labour Labour 46 Worsley and Eccles South North West Labour Labour 52 Wythenshawe and Sale East North West Labour Labour 37 Dunfermline and West Fife Scotland Labour Labour 43 Rutherglen and Hamilton West Scotland Labour Labour 39 Hastings and Rye South East Conservatives Labour 41 Hove South East Conservatives Labour 49 Oxford East South East Labour Labour 47 Slough South East Labour Labour 40 Southampton, Itchen South East Labour Labour 43 Bristol East South West Labour Labour 48 Exeter South West Labour Labour 39 Plymouth, Moor View South West Labour Labour 39 Stroud South West Conservatives Labour 50 Aberavon Wales Labour Labour 43 Alyn and Deeside Wales Labour Labour 66 Blaenau Gwent Wales Labour Labour 41 Bridgend Wales Labour Labour 42 Caerphilly Wales Labour Labour 35 Cardiff Central Wales Liberal Democrats Labour 40 Clwyd South Wales Labour Labour 48 Cynon Valley Wales Labour Labour 44 Delyn Wales Labour Labour 40 Gower Wales Labour Labour 51 Islwyn Wales Labour Labour 37 Llanelli Wales Labour Labour 49 Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney Wales Labour Labour 41 Neath Wales Labour Labour 45 Newport East Wales Labour Labour 53 Ogmore Wales Labour Labour 43 Pontypridd Wales Labour Labour 49 Rhondda Wales Labour Labour 55 Swansea East Wales Labour Labour 42 Torfaen Wales Labour Labour 47 Vale of Clwyd Wales Labour Labour 43 Wrexham Wales Labour Labour 33 Ynys Mon Wales Labour Labour 47 Birmingham, Edgbaston West Midlands Labour Labour 37 Cannock Chase West Midlands Conservatives Labour 55 Coventry North East West Midlands Labour Labour 40 Dudley North West Midlands Labour Labour 44 Newcastle-under-Lyme West Midlands Labour Labour 39 Nuneaton West Midlands Conservatives Labour 47 Stoke-on-Trent Central West Midlands Labour Labour 43 Telford West Midlands Labour Labour 42 Walsall North West Midlands Labour Labour 52 Warley West Midlands Labour Labour 47 West Bromwich East West Midlands Labour Labour 45 Wolverhampton North East West Midlands Labour Labour 56 Barnsley Central Yorkshire and The Humber Labour Labour 48 Batley and Spen Yorkshire and The Humber Labour Labour 42 Bradford East Yorkshire and The Humber Liberal Democrats Labour 38 Dewsbury Yorkshire and The Humber Conservatives Labour 46 Don Valley Yorkshire and The Humber Labour Labour 51 Doncaster Central Yorkshire and The Humber Labour Labour 41 Great Grimsby Yorkshire and The Humber Labour Labour 43 Halifax Yorkshire and The Humber Labour Labour 58 Hemsworth Yorkshire and The Humber Labour Labour 46 Huddersfield Yorkshire and The Humber Labour Labour 40 Keighley Yorkshire and The Humber Conservatives Labour 53 Kingston upon Hull East Yorkshire and The Humber Labour Labour 55 Leeds Central Yorkshire and The Humber Labour Labour 41 Morley and Outwood Yorkshire and The Humber Labour Labour 59 Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford Yorkshire and The Humber Labour Labour 45 Penistone and Stocksbridge Yorkshire and The Humber Labour Labour 46 Rother Valley Yorkshire and The Humber Labour Labour 52 Rotherham Yorkshire and The Humber Labour Labour 44 Scunthorpe Yorkshire and The Humber Labour Labour 51 Sheffield Central Yorkshire and The Humber Labour Labour 50 Wakefield Yorkshire and The Humber Labour Labour 58 Wentworth and Dearne Yorkshire and The Humber Labour Labour 47 York Central Yorkshire and The Humber Labour Liberal Democrats 41 Cambridge East of England Liberal Democrats Liberal Democrats 38 Colchester East of England Liberal Democrats Liberal Democrats 38 Bermondsey and Old Southwark London Liberal Democrats Liberal Democrats 45 Carshalton and Wallington London Liberal Democrats Liberal Democrats 39 Kingston and Surbiton London Liberal Democrats Liberal Democrats 45 Sutton and Cheam London Liberal Democrats Liberal Democrats 43 Twickenham London Liberal Democrats Liberal Democrats 37 Hazel Grove North West Liberal Democrats Liberal Democrats 39 Southport North West Liberal Democrats Liberal Democrats 54 Westmorland and Lonsdale North West Liberal Democrats Liberal Democrats 43 Orkney and Shetland Scotland Liberal Democrats Liberal Democrats 48 Eastbourne South East Liberal Democrats Liberal Democrats 40 Eastleigh South East Liberal Democrats Liberal Democrats 41 Lewes South East Liberal Democrats Liberal Democrats 34 Bath South West Liberal Democrats Liberal Democrats 43 Cheltenham South West Liberal Democrats Liberal Democrats 39 North Cornwall South West Liberal Democrats Liberal Democrats 50 Thornbury and Yate South West Liberal Democrats Liberal Democrats 38 Torbay South West Liberal Democrats Liberal Democrats 42 Yeovil South West Liberal Democrats Liberal Democrats 35 Brecon and Radnorshire Wales Liberal Democrats Liberal Democrats 33 Ceredigion Wales Liberal Democrats Liberal Democrats 36 Sheffield, Hallam Yorkshire and The Humber Liberal Democrats Other 100 Buckingham South East Other Plaid Cymru 36 Arfon Wales Plaid Cymru Plaid Cymru 39 Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Wales Plaid Cymru Plaid Cymru 46 Dwyfor Meirionnydd Wales Plaid Cymru SNP 50 Aberdeen North Scotland Labour SNP 48 Airdrie and Shotts Scotland Labour SNP 55 Angus Scotland SNP SNP 45 Argyll and Bute Scotland Liberal Democrats SNP 43 Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock Scotland Labour SNP 61 Banff and Buchan Scotland SNP SNP 48 Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross Scotland Liberal Democrats SNP 43 Central Ayrshire Scotland Labour SNP 46 Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill Scotland Labour SNP 55 Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East Scotland Labour SNP 33 Dumfries and Galloway Scotland Labour SNP 36 Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale Scotland Conservatives SNP 64 Dundee East Scotland SNP SNP 38 East Dunbartonshire Scotland Liberal Democrats SNP 50 Edinburgh East Scotland Labour SNP 61 Falkirk Scotland Labour SNP 46 Glasgow Central Scotland Labour SNP 46 Glenrothes Scotland Labour SNP 42 Gordon Scotland Liberal Democrats SNP 46 Inverclyde Scotland Labour SNP 47 Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey Scotland Liberal Democrats SNP 54 Kilmarnock and Loudoun Scotland Labour SNP 47 Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Scotland Labour SNP 51 Lanark and Hamilton East Scotland Labour SNP 48 Linlithgow and East Falkirk Scotland Labour SNP 53 Livingston Scotland Labour SNP 53 Midlothian Scotland Labour SNP 58 Moray Scotland SNP SNP 50 Motherwell and Wishaw Scotland Labour SNP 87 Na h-Eileanan an Iar Scotland SNP SNP 57 North Ayrshire and Arran Scotland Labour SNP 50 Ochil and South Perthshire Scotland Labour SNP 41 Paisley and Renfrewshire North Scotland Labour SNP 56 Perth and North Perthshire Scotland SNP SNP 44 Ross, Skye and Lochaber Scotland Liberal Democrats SNP 44 Stirling Scotland Labour SNP 39 West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine Scotland Liberal Democrats UKIP 37 Clacton East of England Conservatives
That above table breaks down to:
Conservatives 237
Labour 192
Liberal Democrats 23
Other 1
Plaid Cymru 3
SNP 37
UKIP 1
Northern Ireland:
This seat in Northern Ireland could help decide the General Election
http://www.businessinsider.com/northern-irish-party-upper-bann-general-election-outcome-2015-5
Policy guide: Where the parties stand
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/manifesto-guide
from that page, N Ireland seat breakdown (graphic):
This looks like a disaster coming. If all UKIP does is hand Labour a bunch of seats while possibly winning as few as ONE themselves. Yikes.
UKIP voters used to vote for other parties (because UKIP is fairly new), probably will shift to Tories rather than Labour if the don’t vote UKIP. UKIP support is a decent percentage, but spread out, such that, at most, they may pick up three seats. Farage may not win his contest, and says he’ll resign from party leader “ten minutes” later. :’) UKIP is going to win at least one seat, looks like, and Cameron may need that one vote in the coalition.
Thanks BigEdLB!
No live thread yet, too lazy to start one. Polls opened about 1:15 ago.
[snip] A total of 650 Westminster MPs will be elected, with about 50 million people registered to vote. As well as the general election, there are more than 9,000 council seats being contested across 279 English local authorities. Mayors will also be elected in Bedford, Copeland, Leicester, Mansfield, Middlesbrough and Torbay... Some votes had been cast before Thursday through postal voting, which accounted for 15% of the total electorate at the 2010 general election, when the overall turnout was 65%. For the first time, people have been able to register to vote online. [/snip]
http://www.bbc.com/news/election-2015-32618577
No live thread yet, too lazy to start one. Polls opened about 1:15 ago.
[snip] An unambiguous majority in the House of Commons requires 326 seats. Our forecast is that there is currently a 1.00 probability that no single party will reach 326. This tab provides information on the probability that different combinations of two parties will pass a lower 323-seat threshold. We use the lower threshold here, as surviving a confidence vote, given Sinn Fein’s policy of abstention, will require fewer than 326 votes. Here, we make the assumption that certain pairs of parties will never work together to support a government. We exclude Labour partnering with the Conservatives, UKIP, DUP or Sinn Fein; we exclude Conservatives partnering with Labour, SNP, Greens, Plaid Cymru, SDLP or Sinn Fein. [/snip]
http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
