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Why Jeb Bush is Likely to Win the Republican Nomination

Posted on 02/17/2015 7:52:22 AM PST by pinochet

I need to mention a fact that many freepers will find painful and upsetting. In the 20th Century, Country Club Republicans had greater influence in selecting Republican nominees for President, than grassroots Republicans. There are only 2 notable exceptions when the establishment candidate did not win - 1964 and 1980.

In 1964, the Republican establishment was deeply divided. Three Republican candidates from extremely wealthy, Old Money, WASP families were on the ballot. They were Governor Nelson Rockefeller from New York, Governor William Scranton from Pennsylvania, and former Senator Henry Cabot Lodge Jr. from Massachusetts. Lodge did not formally enter the race for President, but his supporters put him on the ballot as a write-in candidate probably with his covert support, in an effort to stop Rockefeller. The division in the Republican establishment created an opportunity for the anti-establishment candidate, Barry Goldwater, to snatch the nomination. Many members of the Republican establishment were outraged by Goldwater's nomination, and they ended up supporting Democrat Lyndon Johnson in the November election.

In the case of Reagan, he developed a large number of admirers among pro-life Democrat working class Catholics and evangelical Protestants, in his 1976 run for the Republican nomination. Gerald Ford, the 1976 Republican nomination winner, was a weak pro-lifer, and his wife, Betty, was an open pro-abortion activist. It was Reagan's pro-life Republican followers who put the pro-life plank in the Republican platform in 1976. In 1980, working class pro-life Democrats, who did not usually vote in Republican primaries, registered for the Republican primary to vote for Reagan. These were the so-called Reagan Democrats. The Republican establishment candidate, George H W Bush, was defeated, but he got the VP's job.

Right now, the WASP Republican establishment has lined up behind Jeb Bush. Wealthy Republican Catholics have also lined up behind Jeb, because he is the first Catholic (although a convert from Waspish Protestantism) with the best chance to become a Republican President.


TOPICS: Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: 2016election; 2016gopprimary; bush; election2016; establishment; florida; jeb; jebbush; jebbush2016; marcorubio; republicans; uniparty
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To: Slambat
Like the great John Roberts. I don’t think so. RINO republicans are just lying liberals.

you and the rest of the 1/16th Republicans are a pain....my way or not at all...PATHETIC

121 posted on 02/17/2015 6:04:30 PM PST by terycarl (common sense prevails over all)
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To: stephenjohnbanker
I lived in SoCal for 30 years. That was enough! Jeb is a traitor to the USA, PERIOD.

You lived in So.Cal and call someone ELSE a traitor????

P.S. Jeb wasn't from So Cal.

122 posted on 02/17/2015 6:21:31 PM PST by terycarl (common sense prevails over all)
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To: Lurkinanloomin
His statements indicate he wants to accomodate illegal aliens and their employers.

No they don't...Pay attention

123 posted on 02/17/2015 6:22:50 PM PST by terycarl (common sense prevails over all)
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To: pinochet

I will never accept that scumbag as my President!!!!!


124 posted on 02/17/2015 6:26:02 PM PST by dalereed
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To: Vigilanteman
Exactly true. And it isn't just another white guy versus a history making woman. It will be a Bush, who brought us the recession, versus a Clinton who brought us the boom of the dot com bubble.

Not picking sides here, but anyone who won't vote for either Jeb or Hillary because they follow someone with the same name is a total idiot...

Are you your brother, are you your wife, aren't you a completely different person that anyone else on Earth????

Good greif, I can't vote for that man because his last name is Arnold...and you know that those Arnolds are traitors.....PATHETIC

125 posted on 02/17/2015 6:31:55 PM PST by terycarl (common sense prevails over all)
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To: Gator113
I will not vote for Jeb Bush under any circumstances, period. I will not vote for a GOP-e candidate under any circumstances, period. I hope to vote for Cruz, period.

I hope that your life is better under Hillary than it was under Obama because THAT IS WHAT YOU ARE VOTING FOR.

Are you really too blind to see that....sad.

126 posted on 02/17/2015 6:36:26 PM PST by terycarl (common sense prevails over all)
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To: Fiji Hill
If Jeb Bush wins the nomination, he will have to win the general election without my vote.

THANK YOU!!!!!!THAT'S ANOTHER 2 VOTES FOR ME..../signed Hillary

127 posted on 02/17/2015 6:40:15 PM PST by terycarl (common sense prevails over all)
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To: terycarl

RINO Big Gubmint die-hard supporter to the end, huh ?


128 posted on 02/17/2015 7:41:47 PM PST by fieldmarshaldj (Resist We Much)
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To: terycarl

You are free to vote for the RINOs, I will not this time around.

I am not convinced that Bush could win the nomination, so we might get a real conservative in the end.

~Cruz or Lose~


129 posted on 02/17/2015 7:58:49 PM PST by Gator113 (Cruz, Lee, and Sessions speak for me.... most anyone else is just noise.)
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To: fieldmarshaldj
RINO Big Gubmint die-hard supporter to the end, huh ?

No, and that's an inane conclusion...I am for Scott Walker and hope, donate to, and pray that he'll win.

That having been said, I am even more AGAINST WHOEVER THE dEMOCRATS RUN. tO SAAY i'LL ONLY VOTE FOR wALKER BUT NEVER FOR bUSH OR cHRISTIE OR WHOEVER THE r(whoops..hit the caps key)...anyway, I'll vote for the Republican candidate because there is no one, on the national level who proclaaims themselves to be a Democrat, that I could ever vote for.

130 posted on 02/17/2015 8:38:02 PM PST by terycarl (common sense prevails over all)
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To: terycarl

When you post a trolling point when a FReeper refuses to vote for another big gubmint RINO for President as a vote for the Democrat, I’m gonna call that person out.

I stopped voting for candidates that differ only by a single letter of the alphabet rather than a vast difference in ideology. If the GOP wants to keep running Socialist statists in bed with the Communist Democrats for President, they’re going to keep losing. I didn’t vote for the lying scum Willard, and I won’t vote for NON-Conservative El Jebbie if he is thrust upon us. Enough is enough.


131 posted on 02/17/2015 8:44:02 PM PST by fieldmarshaldj (Resist We Much)
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To: terycarl

“you and the rest of the 1/16th Republicans are a pain....my way or not at all...PATHETIC”

You want to compromise on right and wrong go ahead. You
want to negotiate on the quality of your life go ahead.
You want to accept a little socialism to get along with
socialists have at it. You want to accept a little tyranny
so you can feel a little safe go ahead. When you do, don’t
be a liar and say your conservative. Compromising with
people and policy that is just wrong is plain cowardice and
deserves no respect. That’s “PATHETIC” pal.


132 posted on 02/17/2015 11:36:04 PM PST by Slambat
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Comment #133 Removed by Moderator

To: socal_parrot

Sounds like a plan.


134 posted on 02/18/2015 12:43:12 AM PST by Dagnabitt
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To: fieldmarshaldj

BUMP


135 posted on 02/18/2015 7:28:02 AM PST by stephenjohnbanker (My Batting Average( 1,000) (GOPe is that easy to read))
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To: terycarl; fieldmarshaldj

” You lived in So.Cal and call someone ELSE a traitor????”

There are MILLIONS of conservatives in SoCal, bub!

” P.S. Jeb wasn’t from So Cal. “

Uh......D U H !


136 posted on 02/18/2015 7:30:09 AM PST by stephenjohnbanker (My Batting Average( 1,000) (GOPe is that easy to read))
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To: pinochet

“Why Jeb Bush is Likely to Win the Republican Nomination”

If true, your next article will be titled, “Why Jeb Bush lost the election to a immoral, corrupted Democrat who should have been easily beaten”


137 posted on 02/18/2015 10:27:54 AM PST by lowbridge
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To: terycarl

If your hero Jeb Bush wins the presidency, he will embrace Obamacare—just as Eisenhower embraced the New Deal and Nixon embraced the Great Society.


138 posted on 02/18/2015 4:25:32 PM PST by Fiji Hill
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To: pinochet

Jeb Bush will generate the worst electoral defeat the GOP has seen in a generation. Jeb Bush is nothing but Hillary’s insurance policy. What a sickening state of affairs.


139 posted on 02/18/2015 7:30:51 PM PST by Attention Surplus Disorder (At no time was the Obama administration aware of what the Obama administration was doing)
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To: terycarl
I see the Bush family water bucket carriers are already taking up their positions.

Save your guilt trips sweetheart. They aren't going to work.

140 posted on 02/19/2015 7:28:59 AM PST by jpl ("You cannot defeat an enemy you do not admit exists." - Lt. General Michael Flynn)
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