Posted on 10/26/2014 10:48:06 AM PDT by expat_panama
Our investing strategy is the mix of our own personal financial needs plus expected future developments in the economy. So the buzz (on these threads) is that the biggest up-coming economic/employment changes impacting our investment choices in the next week or two are the midterm elections, Ebola, deflation, and the war on terror.
We'll share our thoughts here on what we expect, and let's rate our expectations in terms of what we've been having up til now on the 'click-to-enlarge' graphs.
On the right margin we got 5-yr stock index performance for a back drop on our own personal expectations. Fer instance, my guess/wishful thinking is more of the same so I'll say short term up +10% and longer term +20%.
Right below stocks is the past ten years of metals --let's guestimate our expected short&long term trends.
Finally, for discussion we ought to compare our thoughts on what we see supporting our investment expectations --what do we blame for any expected upcoming shift. OK, so we got the election.
<--Here's past party control of congress, and my personal expectations for beginning Jan. '15 is a 60% House and 65% Senate Rep. power shift. [oops, forgot the 'wishful thinking ' tag]
Other newsworthy macro factors coming up in the next couple weeks that should be affecting the economy and our investments include the spread of Ebola, inflation/deflation, war on terror, etc. So we can put at the bottom of the surveypoll/questionaire (SPQ) a vote on where we lob our blame.
OK, funtime! here's the SPQ to fill out and post:
Change in stock indexes: | ____% short term | ____% long term |
Change in metals prices: | ____% short term | ____% long term |
Election results: | ____% Rep. House | ____% Rep. Senate |
Cause of econ/investment trend (election,ebola,'flation,terror,other?): | ____________________ |
The idea is to post the results in a graph table here and my guess is it'll take the better part of a week to get it all in. Another option we got is y'all can private reply if you don't want a public commitment -more work for me but that's OK because that way I can change your vote or even make up bogus replies to back up my own prejudices. As for how actual reality compares to our guestimates, prices come out every minute, the election's a week from Tues, and agreement on the cause should probably take a few decades...
This is the thread where folks swap ideas on savings and investment --here's a list of popular investing links that freepers have posted here and tomorrow morning we'll go on with our-- Open invitation continues always for idea-input for the thread, this being a joint effort works well. Keywords: financial, WallStreet, stockmarket, economy. |
Your Bernankeistic philopshy of kicking the can down the street is flawed.
The chickens will come home to roost.
Exactly. So WHEN do we quit kicking this can down the street. You guys are for QE(infinity)?
Both of you would fit in great at the Fed.
Yep, the bozos who thought we could grow the economy based on an energy boom, didn’t expect $50/bbl oil. And yes I do know it is not $50 right now.......
The oversupply of US oil is a huge risk for the economy. The morons here at FR who keep screaming “Drill here! Drill now!” will get exactly what they want. And then they will wonder what happened...
Not sure I’ve ever said I’m in favor of perpetual QE...
I am in favor of supplying liquidity when demanded so we don’t go into a deflationary spiral and completely wreck the economy. So if that’s what “fit in at the Fed” means. I’m cool with that monicker.
Friday, October 31, 2014 |
|||||
Markets | yesterday | today | |||
metals | Plunge speeding up w/ gold down to at $1,173.93 & silver to $16.07 | Futures @ 2-1.5 hrs. before opening -0.85% | |||
stocks | Up in lower (and above average) volume-- "...after shaking off a weak start. The Nasdaq tacked on 0.4% while the S&P 500 added 0.6%. The Dow Jones industrial average surged 1.3%, mostly thanks to Visa's (V) 10% gain." (from here) |
Futures +1.07% |
--and we'll hit the ground running today w/ the end of the week, end of the month, and Halloween all at once! Report stack (all for early this morning) even bigger than yesterday's:
Natural Gas Inventories
Personal Income
Personal Spending
PCE Prices - Core
Employment Cost Index
Chicago PMI
Michigan Sentiment - Final
News links:
XOM EPS $1.89 vs $1.71 Est
He and I are really not that important --ok, well maybe I am-- but if we want to feed our families then we need to know what's going on. The Fed's not important. If the Fed were gone and some other agency did exactly what the Fed's doing now then nothing would change. What the Fed's actually doing is what's important.
Most people prefer to cry like a baby about all the things they hate but all that does is raise our taxes for feeding the helpless twits. We need to decide what we want. So we like the U.S., and its constitution and its ability to create wealth. It's government's job to create money and "regulate the value thereof". For me it's not a question of whether the government should regulate the dollar's value but how the gov't should regulate the dollar. Most money is created using banks, we need money to live, so I'm voting for a congress that has banks making the amount of money necessary for $100 to buy roughly the same amount of food, clothing, and shelter from one week to the next.
I'm guessing we're together on this but if not then maybe we can at least understand our differences.
Silver getting hammered and gold getting mauled this morning.
Wonder if the lower oil prices are lowering inflation around the globe as in Japan.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3221630/posts
Japans central bank shocks markets with more easing as inflation slows
Reuters ^ | Oct 31, 2014 | Leika Kihara and Tetsushi Kajimoto
Posted on 10/31/2014, 6:39:04 AM by TigerLikesRooster
Japans central bank shocks markets with more easing as inflation slows
By Leika Kihara and Tetsushi Kajimoto
TOKYO Fri Oct 31, 2014 10:47am GMT
(Reuters) - The Bank of Japan shocked global financial markets on Friday by expanding its massive stimulus spending in a stark admission that economic growth and inflation have not picked up as much as expected after a sales tax hike in April
“stark admission that economic growth and inflation have not picked up as much as expected after a sales tax hike in April”
That’s funny right there. Tax hikes kick up economic growth. Who knew?
Not a good week for the private space biz
“Virgin Galactic confirmed on Twitter Friday that the company’s SpaceShipTwo craft suffered an ‘in-flight anomaly’ and crashed in the Mojave desert.”
There’s a lot of food for thought there. Makes me think about a stock screen strategy where the best picks are ones exceeding estimated expectations. That would mean health care, IT, and industrials are the way to go now. I’m surprised about telecoms though —me and a lot of other people...
Is that supposed to be the market looking up to Yellen for more QE?
(Great carving. Well done.)
tx!
There’s a lot of that going on. Maybe the economy is really coming back?
Housing and low interest rates are causing people to feel trapped and poor.
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