Skip to comments.Boom: Major GOP momentum in new national and state polls
Posted on 10/09/2014 7:51:02 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Let’s start with the national picture, then move to key Senate races. In a fresh CBS News poll, Republicans hold a six point lead on the generic Congressional ballot — matching their final 2010 margin in this series:
As a point of comparison, Fox’s national survey released last week had the GOP ahead by a similar margin, 47-40. It’s historically rare for Republicans to have any advantage on this indicator, so what explains their substantial edge here? How about a 30 point lead among independents, and an eight-point enthusiasm gap. And then there’s this
New CBS poll http://t.co/PuQkQSnz22 pic.twitter.com/t2modUveKI
Aaron Blake (@AaronBlakeWP) October 8, 2014
Despite some positive economic news in recent weeks, just 29 percent voters thinks the US economy is improving. Maybe Obama should give another speech. On the question of whether the president has “a clear plan for dealing with ISIS,” respondents break “no” by 30 points. This president is toxic. Reuters has him dipping back into the 30′s:
Reuters-Ipsos Obama 39-52 http://t.co/P9DT7xq6gR Phil Kerpen (@kerpen) October 9, 2014
But the real action is in the Senate. We’ve been wondering for weeks if and when individual Senate races would start to more closely reflect the national mood. Well, a Fox’s bipartisan pollster unleashed a deluge of state-level numbers last evening:
Alaska: Sullivan (R) 44, Begich (D) 40. +4 (Update: CNN’s new Alaska poll has Sullivan up six).
Arkansas: Cotton (R) 46, Pryor (D) 39. +7
Colorado: Gardner (R) 43, Udall (D) 37. +6
Kansas: Roberts (R) 44, Orman (I/D) 39. +5
Kentucky: McConnell (R) 45, Grimes (D) 41. +4
Lots of undecideds in those numbers, obviously, which begs the question of which direction those uncommitted voters are likely to break (if they vote at all). Check out POTUS’ job approval in these states:
Crosstabs indicate that undecided voters in Alaska and Arkansas, for instance, disapprove of Obama by roughly a two-to-one margin. That’s some tough sledding. As the New York Times noted this week, if Republicans can bring their Kansas voters “home,” the GOP’s shot at netting at least six Senate seats and reclaiming the majority is a lot cleaner. Fox’s Jayhawk data from marks the third poll in less than a week that shows momentum for Roberts; the NYT/CBS/YouGov poll had the race tied, and CNN’s latest gives Roberts a narrow edge. In North Carolina, don’t look now, but two new polls show Thom Tillis within two points of Kay Hagan. Those surveys were in the field before a stammering Hagan couldn’t name a vote on which she regrets supporting Obama (who’s underwater by 17 points in the state) in a televised debate, and finally admitted that she’d skipped a key hearing on ISIS for a fundraiser. Meanwhile, in Louisiana:
#DemsinDisarray RT @michaelcshort: BREAKING: Landrieu shakes up campaign staff, fires campaign manager: http://t.co/u9HwSkAjcL
Logan Dobson (@LoganDobson) October 8, 2014
Canning your campaign manager in October of an election year emits a strong whiff of desperation. In fairness, the likely runoff election in this race doesn’t roll around until December 6, so the timeline isn’t quite as crazy as it may otherwise appear. But still, the Senator “from Louisiana” is in real trouble. With good news sprouting up everywhere for Republicans over the last 24 hours, I feel compelled to issue requisite admonitions: This is one good round of polling, the electorate can be fickle, other surveys paint a less rosy picture, and important dynamics can shift over three weeks. That said, these are undeniably positive signs — and taken together, they make Noah’s description of the DSCC’s South Dakota ‘feint’ look pretty solid right about now.
The stars are aligning at the right time.
The looming ebola crisis is a gift from Democrats to Republicans. In spite of their desire and ability to screw this up, I think this time, the Republicans actually can win by just not being Democrats.
NOT because of any actual effort by Republicans to gain advantage in this election cycle. It is only because Democrats have been so outstandingly BAD, that Republicans become even remotely a better alternative.
Not necessarily a good alternative.
A lot of powder and ammo being simply WASTED out there. To no lasting effect.
Tommorow the Polls show the GOP is struggling, and all elections are much closer than thought, if pollsters did not report extremes day to day, they wouldn’t make as much money, it all smoke and mirrors, in so many respects.
Wait for more polls before the happy talk kicks in. There were some polls this morning that showed the opposite. (Survey USA among others) and trending Dim. This is certainly no “boom” and smacks of cherry picking.
Fox has always had a GOPe house effect and CBS partners with YouGov that is among the worst pollsters out there. Everythng everywhere is within the margin of error and all these races are close (even though they shouldn’t be). Fox and YouGov and others (Ras) had Romney winning fairly handily before 2012 election. It usually takes only being burned once for me not to trust.
BUT ... as I am fond of saying ... is it Nov 5 yet? To use the sports metaphor ... it’s why they play the games.
That’s the first recent poll that I’ve seen showing Roberts ahead in Kansas. There will be some disappointed people on this forum (although I doubt they will publicly admit it).
The GOP are a bunch of losers! Why is this even close? Obama has been an unmitigated disaster on every level. Yet there has been no strong unified voice of opposition.
If Repubs can't capitalize on the current climate, what chance would they ever have in a competitive environment?
Stand for something positive you republican idiots. Stand for Liberty, Free Enterprise, American Exceptionalism, The Constitution. Define and Reclaim the American Dream.
Define and Proclaim Values that UNITE all of us under one American umbrella. And it is NOT Multiculturalism, Diversity, Equality, Social Justice, Climate Disruption, Wind Mills and Free Stuff from Uncle Sham.
The fact democrats are liars and lowlifes always helps...
The looming ebola crisis is a gift from Democrats to Republicans.
Isn’t it great how the GOP doesn’t have to bother taking any policy positions or running on issues?
“Isnt it great how the GOP doesnt have to bother taking any policy positions or running on issues?”
I can’t even begin to express how disgusted and angry that makes me. This is why our government is broken. It’s 100% self interest by the political class with absolutely no concern for the nation.
The RINOs win! Whoop-de-doo!
Happy Talk is what you will hear from me AFTER a Republican congress actually does something about executive overreach (meaning illegal EOs), and unconstitutional regulatory agency fascism.
Matters not if Republicans have 75% of both houses if they do not aggressively deal with both of the above............
And most of us are realistic enough know they will not.
PS Don’t forget Lame Duck amnesty....they’re going to stick it to us.
For me, the only real pleasure of a Pubbie sweep will be listening to the caterwauling of the Dems and the media afterwards. I don’t seriously expect anything concrete in a positive way for the country. The media will lay into the Republicans and they will fold like a cheap suit. They always do.
Democrats will do anything to steal elections and Republicans will do almost anything to lose them. Dead people don't poll particularly well, neither do the incarcerated, mentally ill, illegal aliens and pets. Republicans, meanwhile, act fat and happy when the numbers are good and won't get off their asses to campaign while Democrats tinker with voting machines and prepare intimidation tactics in order to win surprise races.
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