The Job Market’s February Crumble: The raw numbers tell the ugly story.

Pajamas Media ^ | 03/08/2014 | Tom Blumer

[Kartographer]

There's plenty of jobs just a bunch of deadbeats! Americans just won't work them. We need to bring in more illegal to boost the economy.

Just getting in before the FR 'Deadbeat' and 'We love hard working illegals that we can pay next to nothing and then call the ICE to come get them when we are done crowd'.

[Steve_Seattle]

This year is the first time in my life I have ever heard the news media proclaiming the weather as a serious factor driving economic statistics.

[STJPII]

That’s a GREAT point. Now that you say that neither have I.

[volunbeer]

The government can use their own numbers and make macro claims that things are getting better, but I don’t see it based on my own observations. With the exception of the stock market and energy sector it’s not there. The stock market appears to be a bubble. The shale gas boom is a good thing. Everything else looks anemic to me.

How many small businesses are barely hanging on or even losing money considering how much of our economy is service/luxury based? Empty strip malls and larger retail outlets closing are not signs of economic health. This is before the full impact of Obamacare is felt by businesses and it will negatively impact jobs.

I am not optimistic about how this all ends.

[vladimir998]

Yes, yes, yes, but was it “unexpected”?

[Java4Jay]

Its all going to crash and we know it

[miss marmelstein]

Oh, the moochers and deadbeat contingent at FR! Hey, why should Republicans make an issue of unemployment and the Democrats contribution to it when they can spend all their time beating up on the unemployed?!

And away we go...

[ex-snook]

Nothing that MADE IN USA won’t fix. Now if there was only a candidate, we would be back on track to middle class prosperity and voting again for the GOP.

[Psalm 144]

All that global warming driving these winter storms. Or something.

[Gaffer]

They use any and every excuse they can. When employment went up because of Christmas workers, they didn’t mention it. It was real job growth. When they had that ATM charges debacle, the government blamed that as a job/economy killer. The nuclear plants in Japan, Tsunamis, earthquakes in Turkey, a cow farted in Spain, the Greek banking crisis, so-and-so didn’t get American Idol because of racism and employment went down - all that. Anything and everything.

The FACT is this government - the whole damned government - LIES!

[grania]

I despise "seasonally adjusted" or any measure by which the raw data has been finagled. It's kind of like the "wind chill temperature" in weather....just tell me the temperature, tell me how strong the wind is and its direction and how sunny/cloudy it is, and let me figure out what to wear.

With raw data, economists could explain what factors had an affect on it. Seasonal adjustment assumes that every February (for instance) is average. It's insane to take the thought process out of data analysis and expect good conclusions.

[Diana in Wisconsin]

“...larded tons of lipstick onto a couple of really ugly pigs:”

Best description yet of what we’re up against.

Worst. President. Ever. Worst. Congress. Ever. Worst. Complicit. Media. Ever.

EVER!

[Vinylly]

That’s the way to media reports that it’s not Mr.’O’s fault.
It’s Pres. Bush’s fault because he is responsible for global warming which changed the weather pattern.

[LostInBayport]

How many small businesses are barely hanging on or even losing money considering how much of our economy is service/luxury based? Empty strip malls and larger retail outlets closing are not signs of economic health.

This is anecdotal, but it got me thinking yesterday. A local pizza place that is a family favorite closed within the last few weeks. I was sitting in traffic next to a little strip mall when I found that out (from a call from a family member who tried to place an order and got a machine). I looked at the strip mall and realized that a pastry shop that had been there for a long time is now 'for rent', as is a cleaners next to it. There is a pizza place there too but there were no cars out front and it looked dark.

I ended up going to a pizza place in another town. It sits next to one other retail outlet and three empty storefronts.

So will it be "Recovery Summer Part Five" in a few months?

[Thom Pain]

I remember them blaming El Nino & La Nina

[John W]

Your thoughts on Mr. Blumer’s viewpoint?

[volunbeer]

They love to claim “recovery” at every turn. I don’t see it on the ground level.

There is a disconnect on the economy between two groups of people - the average Joe (that’s me) and the macro-economist.

I see inflation in products we buy every day - energy, food, and other necessities. They see deflation in the big numbers (markets and banks). The stock market goes up and they are happy - the price of milk goes up and we are sad.

I won’t say one group is right and one is wrong. I think we just look at the world differently and perception is a powerful force in the economy.

[Attention Surplus Disorder]

"This is anecdotal, but it got me thinking yesterday. A local pizza place that is a family favorite closed within the last few weeks." This article from the WSJ about a month ago. Obviously, I know nothing about your local situation/economy or whether the pizza joint you speak of can make a decent pizza. But what is killing little pizza shops is their inability to take orders via 'net or smartphone. People go for the convenience and only a Pizza Hut or Round Table-sized enterprise can manage the infrastruture. People don't like the pressure of deciding upon their toppings while talking to a person on the phone. This leads to what I think could be a great biz idea, that of being an order aggregator for such small businesses. It would take some net chops, but someone could make some good money taking a 75 cents or a buck a pizza for processing the order, multiply that times 50 local restaurants. Or 500 local restaurants.

[Roses0508]

I see the same type of thing in our area. Every strip center has more spaces “for lease” than are occupied. Even the large shopping areas - roofed and open have many empty stores. I see some familiar business close its doors every week. Hundreds and hundreds of homes for sale. There was a little uptick in the housing market, but it was gone in a flash. Now all the “For Sale” signs are being replaced with “For Rent” signs. Our business is dependent on small and medium businesses. None of them are hiring, all of them are tightening up as much as possible. None of them want to make capital outlays. They are so hesitant to make capital outlays that they often wait too long.

I fail to see any improvement in the economy in this area.