Posted on 02/03/2014 1:54:13 PM PST by SeekAndFind
After a blistering four-month rally that took stocks to record highs last year, January could not have been more different, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell more than 5%.
In the first month of the year, traders worried the financial health of both the U.S. and smaller nations meant stocks were too dangerous to continue owning for the time being, especially after a nearly uninterrupted rise that began in early 2009. Those jitters continued on the first trading day in February, driven by weakness in a manufacturing index from the Institute for Supply Management.
By the close of the market's session, stocks had crumbled, with the Dow dropping 326 points, ultimately finishing 2.1% lower. The S&P 500 (^GSPC), a broader measure of U.S. companies, ended down 2.3%. The worst of the three big stock averages was the Nasdaq (^IXIC), which fell 2.6% Jeff Hirsch of the Stock Trader’s Almanac says the downtrodden start to the year has delivered three messages to investors:
1) The strong vs. the weak Looking through January’s winners and losers, it’s hard to ignore the distinct weakness in retailers. Whether it was Amazon.com (AMZN), Home Depot (HD), Starbucks (SBUX), Coach (COH) or Best Buy (BBY), this sector that's sensitive to consumer moods took a hard hit last month. Same for insurers, who suffered their biggest monthly drop in over two years, with names such as Travelers (TRV), Chubb (CB) and Progressive (^GSPC0) all down sharply. On the plus side, gains during the month were limited to stocks viewed as capable of withstanding selloffs and doubts, such as the utility sector and health-care stocks that are seen as poised to benefit from Obamacare.
2) What's the Fed's role? The Federal Reserve's announcement that it will pare its long-running bond-purchasing program came in mid-December,
(Excerpt) Read more at finance.yahoo.com ...
But guess what is UP the past few trading days?
GOLD and SILVER !!
The market goes down, too.
If that comes as a surprise to you, then you shouldn’t be in it.
If, however, you are now looking for stocks that are cheap enough to buy, you’ll do well.
Bubble, bubble, bubble.
This is what I’m worried about.
Many of the high tech companies were doing really well in 2000. Lots of cash and excited about the future.
Very few are excited now and cash reserves (except Apple) are not good.
If this falls off the edge, its going to fall far.
It could go much lower, of course, but I've seen this game played before. The big boys on Wall Street are out to screw the individual investor. The Fed will be forced to go back to $85B per month as the employment news gets worse, and institutional investors will be taking advantage of the dip.
I have a company match, so I keep things pretty conservative.
Notice the MSM propaganda. Like this is not entirely about the FED slowing down its market prop up via fake money. Stocks are so far above Market value that they have a whole long ways to fall.
It has to be “the weather”. It just has to be...
Obamacare dividend. Let the good times roll.
Meh. Just taking back some of the 30% we made last year. 10% or 20% would not be shocking; unpleasant, but not shocking. Equities are a long-term investment.
TC
My technical charts show that there is still a long way to go. At least down to 14,300 ish and perhaps as far as 11,000 before the excess is wrung out of the market.
I’m out in sitting on cash.
From Shakespear's McBeth
Yea, let's all be saps and rush in and buy gold and silver. NOT!
Go buy ten 1-ounce silver coins. Put them in your drawer with $200 in cash. This time next year, see which buys you more......
That's how I look at it. Anything that leaves more than 10% of last years tangential rise is good.
I don't trade anymore, but I am easing myself out of my remaining stocks gradually. It is tempting to put in some orders tomorrow at way too low bids just in case some crazy selling occurs.
With the last drop in the price of gold and silver I think I would have been better off with the $200 cash.
But I get your point.
We should touch base in a year or so....
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.