Posted on 01/19/2014 9:22:33 AM PST by afraidfortherepublic
A recent conversation with a veteran of GOP presidential campaigns raised this question: Which, if any, of the recent battleground states are likely to become more Republican by 2016? The consensus: very few.
That reality highlights one problem Republicans face as they seek to regain the White House after six years under President Obama. Lots of factors affect elections: the quality of the candidates, the state of the economy, the effectiveness of the campaigns. But in a country whose demographics continue to change, Republicans will begin this campaign with one significant disadvantage.
Over the past three decades, the political leanings of many states have shifted dramatically. What once was a sizable Republican advantage in the electoral college has become a decided Democratic advantage.
One way to look at this is by comparing two overlapping 20-year periods. In the first, 1980 through 2000, Republicans won four of six presidential elections. In the second, 1992 through 2012, Democrats won four of six.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
Add DC, VT, and RI and you have 194. Add Michigan and the Democrats have 211 without breaking a sweat.
Not quite. McKinley was elected to two consecutive terms, but was assassinated in the first year of his second term.
Also, Calvin Coolidge probably could have breezed to a second election victory, but politely decided to "choose not to run.
The gop wing of the uniparty couldn’t win a game of tic-tac-toe if you spotted them three moves. But then again, winning elections is not the gop’s purpose. It’s primary purpose is to act as a judas goat for conservatives.
Your post is one of the most sensible that I have read here in some time. Most of the posts here seem to be gloating in advance that we lose another presidential election. There seems to be some perverse pleasure in pulling down the only chance at regaining sobriety in government.
Maybe we should start running as democrats. Their base is so full of card punchers we need merely push out the leftist.
Can’t win with all the voter fraud.
Romney, McCain, GW Bush, Dole, GHW Bush, Reagan
That's kinda my whole point.
OH, sorry, yeah, each time I’ve posted that I’ve also noted “and completed both terms” or just said, “served two terms in his own right”. :’(
Coolidge is a woulda shoulda coulda, fact is, he didn’t run, and as it turned out, would not have quite finished a second (third) term.
Gingrich? Santorum? Perry? Bachmann?
How many fraudulent voetes were cast?
Do you think any of them would be allowed to win?
Do you remember the shenanigans during the primaries — how there were retroactive rule-changes that benefited their anointed?
Do you remember NY-23?
One of our fellow FReepers has personal experience about how the RNC would rather Democrats win than lose out to "conservatives" who won't toe the line
.
(Video.)
Yes, I remember. My point is that there isn’t a lack of conservative candidates. I don’t understand why conservatives don’t control the RNC, and why it’s so hard to unite around one candidate. I need to study some more, I guess.
Part of it is, as I mentioned before, the RNC is not about to allow anyone they cannot control win — that is, in itself, a huge disadvantage.
Another thing is that there are different things that "conservatives" find unacceptable:
As an example; let's look at my stances:
too extremeby most of the Republicans on the national stage.
I disagree.
2012 Presidential Election - White Voters
Romney - 59%
Obama - 39%
It's “an uphill battle” because we spent the last 30 years importing Socialist voters.
It's “an uphill battle” because the Republican leadership spends more time attacking Conservatives than Democrats.
It's “an uphill battle” because 4 million Conservatives stayed home in 2012 and refused to vote for our most recent center-left presidential candidate.
We re so IMMORAL, only GOD can save us, and we have KICKED him out. We are DOMMED unless we turn to God.
And by the time Bush left office in 2009, the military campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan had already carried on longer than the U.S. involvement in both World Wars combined.
No wonder this country was willing to elect a jug-eared Kenyan at that point.
The number of electors in each state is equal to the number of members of Congress to which the state is entitled,[4] while the Twenty-third Amendment has granted the District of Columbia with the minimum number of electors permissible for a state, which is currently three. In total, there are 538 electors, based on there being 435 representatives and 100 senators, plus the three electors from the District of Columbia. - Wikipedia
If big cities controlled the outcome of elections, the governors and U.S. Senators would be Democratic in virtually every state with a significant city.
Even in California state-wide elections, candidates for governor or U.S. Senate don’t campaign just in Los Angeles and San Francisco, and those places don’t control the outcome (otherwise California wouldn’t have recently had Republican governors Reagan, Dukemejian, Wilson, and Schwarzenegger). A vote in rural Alpine county is just an important as a vote in Los Angeles. If Los Angeles cannot control statewide elections in California, it can hardly control a nationwide election.
In fact, Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Jose, and Oakland together cannot control a statewide election in California.
Similarly, Republicans dominate Texas politics without carrying big cities such as Dallas and Houston.
There are numerous other examples of Republicans who won races for governor and U.S. Senator in other states that have big cities (e.g., New York, Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Massachusetts) without ever carrying the big cities of their respective states.
A League of Women Voters study notes that Americans are twice as likely to get hit by lightning as to have their vote canceled out by a fraudulently cast vote.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.