Why Mark Warner should fear Ed Gillespie

Still, in the absence of a skilled, well-funded opponent capable of exploiting these vulnerabilities, Warner might well coast to reelection.

Let's pray that's wrong.

But isn’t Gillespie a squishy RINO who backs amnesty?

Is there anything to indicate that Virginia will ever vote for a Republican in a statewide election again?

No, even Roanoke is Democrat. People believe in “democracy”: think the idea is “Jeffersonian”.

Mark Warner has as much to fear from Ed Gillespie as Zero did from McCain in ‘08.

That’s deceptive. The independent city of Roanoke is Democrat. But if Salem, Roanoke and Roanoke County were all united (as they would be in other states), Roanoke is Republican (combined total voted 54,000 to 48,000 in 2012 for Willard).

Sorry, VA’s independent cities are confusing to outsiders. But the state is moving heavily Dem. through the DC suburbs, which are impenetrable.

Warner will not lose. Northern Virginians love kissing Warner’s rear and pretending he has helped the state... God knows why, the man is a walking disaster.

Go Gillespie go! A conservative leaning establishment type (may) be better than a Democrat in this case.

The point is Virginia is a solid blue state now.

While the NOVA suburbs are moving that way, it's hard to call a state that voted for Zero with just 51% (with the other 49% going to combined ostensibly center-right candidates) heavily Dem.

This is the 2012 map for President with the proper blue=Republican, red=Democrat colors. VA Democrats have lucked out by having subpar Republicans or RINOs to run against over the past decade. Even when we get one through handily (McDonnell), they end up having bringing in baggage that damage the ticket (or the RINOs sabotage the ticket, as they did with Cuccinelli). The Dems are already too overrepresented with the top offices, and I expect this will be unsustainable. The GOP had that same sense of certainty and cockiness in the '90s that blew up in their faces, and it will happen to the Democrats in VA.

Post #11 (and I don’t use the Orwellian newspeak colors).

“Is there anything to indicate that Virginia will ever vote for a Republican in a statewide election again?”

In the midst of a massive voter blowback on a galvanizing issue like Obamacare, a Republican has an outside chance in a midterm election in Virginia. But otherwise, this state has been done in electorally by South Maryland, aka, Northern VA. The problem about Warner is most Virginia voters are head-over-heels in love with him, the Obamacare lies notwithstanding. He convinced enough people during his stint as Governor that he was some kind of independent-minded moderate, when the truth is he’s one of Obama’s most loyal Senatorial lapdogs.

Not solid blue yet. Our state House of Delegates... the one firewall against McAuliffe’s agenda, has a GOP supermajority. The dems’ advantage is in a few cities.

Is there anything to indicate that Virginia will ever vote for a Republican in a statewide election again?

We may have passed the point of no return. Virginia suffers more than most states because of immigrants, both legal and illegal. It has been going on for so long, that now the 2nd generation immigrants have kids that are of voting age: and they are not going to vote against their self interest (free stuff).

There is quite a bit of data on this. We are talking a 17 point change in voting habits from the 90s to today. There is no way you can overcome those numbers, particularly in elections that are decided by 3-4 points. Virginia is done. They may win a few more elections due to voter anger, but the state isn't producing conservative thought in their schools. Parents are not taking back their schools. Eventually, it all goes blue.

Look at the bright side. The age of the gentiles must come to a close, and Israel must take center stage again. The US has to diminish for that to happen.

A lot of people are taking a very apocalyptic view on Virgina’s future just cause rats won in 2012 and “won” last November. I think it’s a major overreaction.

It is. People forget that for 3 straight elections in the ‘80s, the Democrats held the Governorship (and were on track to a 4th win in 1993 when a hard-charging George Allen closed a whopping gap in the polls that Mary Sue Terry, the Attorney General, had opened on him). They just elected, by a minority, a corrupt Democrat hack to that office. Sometimes it takes a good slap in the face to the electorate to get them back in the right direction.

It’s also worth pointing out that the state voted more GOP for President in 2012 than it did in 2008, too. I certainly know what it was like to live in a state with a dead GOP. You should’ve seen Tennessee from the period between 1986-1994... we had all of 3 Congressmembers, two were old men, one of whom died in office and passed it to his son, and the other was the RINO Country Clubber from Illinois, Sundquist. We had Gore and Sasser for Senators, both of whom carried the state by 2-to-1 margins in 1988 and 1990 (Gore carrying every county in TN, and Sasser all but two). We had a backwoods Democrat apparatchik Governor who was blind to his party’s corruption. The Democrat Secretary of State blew his brains out during this time, and the media didn’t bat an eyelash. State voted Dem for President in 1992 and 1996.

Flash forward to 2014 and the Democrat party is dead in TN, with the sole exception of some Mayors, all of whom have no chance at winning higher office. Commanding GOP supermajorities in the legislature, Congress, and are solidly Presidential. Stalin could run as a Republican and win handily here. The Democrats can’t even dig up a candidate to run for Governor this year and barely have a second-tier nobody to run for Senator.

The Virginia GOP can turn it around, they just need to clear out the dead wood, dump the RINOs and the statists, present a united front and specific agenda, and take advantage of the wonderful gift of Terry McAwful and Zero’s Senate meatpuppets.

ping

Ed Gillespie, a ‘Conservative’s Conservative’
By PETER ROFF

http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/peter-roff/2014/01/13/ed-gillespie-would-be-a-strong-gop-senate-candidate-in-virginia?src=usn_tw

I have lived in VA for the past 34 years, been active in local GOP politics, been a delegate a number of times at the GOP state conventions, and participated as a poll watcher many times. I find your analysis of what is happening here in VA wildly off the mark. VA is a purple state and is trending solid blue within a decade. Any Rep running for statewide office has to be considered a decided underdog.

This is the 2012 map for President with the proper blue=Republican, red=Democrat colors. VA Democrats have lucked out by having subpar Republicans or RINOs to run against over the past decade. Even when we get one through handily (McDonnell), they end up having bringing in baggage that damage the ticket (or the RINOs sabotage the ticket, as they did with Cuccinelli).

The map shows counties and cities. It doesn't reflect where most of the voters live. NoVA has more than one-third of the voters and it is becoming bluer by the day. The Dems build up huge margins of victory in NoVA, and in the cities to offset the southern and rural parts of the state. You can use similar maps for PA and MI and still get the same results for the Dems.

Here in Fairfax County, the largest in the state, the Dems have taken over. In 2004 Kerry won Fairfax County, the first time a Dem had done that in 40 years. Since then, the margins of victory just grow. In Presidential races, VA is clearly in the Dem column thanks to rapidly changing demographics.

In 1990 15% of the population of Fairfax County was foreign born; today it is 30%. Arlington County and Alexandria provide the Dems with even more votes. In 2012 Obama won Fairfax County by 110,000 votes; Arlington County by 47,000; Alexandria by 32,000; and Prince William County by 29,000. Toss in Richmond which Obama won by 56,000 and Norfolk which Obama won by 40,000 and you have a cushion of 314,000 votes. This is a very difficult amount to overcome in an election where a total of 3.8 million votes were cast.

Obama won VA by 149,000 votes in 2012 compared to 235,000 votes in 2008. Obama actually received 12,000 more votes in 2012 than he did in 2008, but the GOP upped its total in 2012 by nearly 100,000 thru a Herculean GOTV effort but still lost easily.

The bottom line is that the Dems have the numbers and if they get turnout percentages just equal to the GOP, the Dems will win. It also bears mentioning that VA has a black population of 19.7%, a solid Dem constituency.

The Dems are already too overrepresented with the top offices, and I expect this will be unsustainable. The GOP had that same sense of certainty and cockiness in the '90s that blew up in their faces, and it will happen to the Democrats in VA.

I disagree. VA does not have the same electorate it had in the 1990s. VA is going the same way NV and CO are going. CA has already gone. In Presidential elections. states go purple and then blue, not the reverse with the possible exception of WV.

By 2019 half of the children 18 and under will be minorities as defined by the USG. By 2041 half of the country will be minorities. We bring in 1.2 million legal permanent immigrants annually, 87% of whom are minorities. In 1970 one in 21 in this country was foreign-born; today it is one in 8, the highest in 90 years; and within a decade it will be one 7, the highest in our history. This has electoral consequences. Demography is destiny.

NB: Hillary will win VA easily in 2016.