Sorry, VA’s independent cities are confusing to outsiders. But the state is moving heavily Dem. through the DC suburbs, which are impenetrable.
This is the 2012 map for President with the proper blue=Republican, red=Democrat colors. VA Democrats have lucked out by having subpar Republicans or RINOs to run against over the past decade. Even when we get one through handily (McDonnell), they end up having bringing in baggage that damage the ticket (or the RINOs sabotage the ticket, as they did with Cuccinelli). The Dems are already too overrepresented with the top offices, and I expect this will be unsustainable. The GOP had that same sense of certainty and cockiness in the '90s that blew up in their faces, and it will happen to the Democrats in VA.
If you take away the northern Virginia vote, republicans win every time.