While the NOVA suburbs are moving that way, it's hard to call a state that voted for Zero with just 51% (with the other 49% going to combined ostensibly center-right candidates) heavily Dem.
This is the 2012 map for President with the proper blue=Republican, red=Democrat colors. VA Democrats have lucked out by having subpar Republicans or RINOs to run against over the past decade. Even when we get one through handily (McDonnell), they end up having bringing in baggage that damage the ticket (or the RINOs sabotage the ticket, as they did with Cuccinelli). The Dems are already too overrepresented with the top offices, and I expect this will be unsustainable. The GOP had that same sense of certainty and cockiness in the '90s that blew up in their faces, and it will happen to the Democrats in VA.
I have lived in VA for the past 34 years, been active in local GOP politics, been a delegate a number of times at the GOP state conventions, and participated as a poll watcher many times. I find your analysis of what is happening here in VA wildly off the mark. VA is a purple state and is trending solid blue within a decade. Any Rep running for statewide office has to be considered a decided underdog.
This is the 2012 map for President with the proper blue=Republican, red=Democrat colors. VA Democrats have lucked out by having subpar Republicans or RINOs to run against over the past decade. Even when we get one through handily (McDonnell), they end up having bringing in baggage that damage the ticket (or the RINOs sabotage the ticket, as they did with Cuccinelli).
The map shows counties and cities. It doesn't reflect where most of the voters live. NoVA has more than one-third of the voters and it is becoming bluer by the day. The Dems build up huge margins of victory in NoVA, and in the cities to offset the southern and rural parts of the state. You can use similar maps for PA and MI and still get the same results for the Dems.
Here in Fairfax County, the largest in the state, the Dems have taken over. In 2004 Kerry won Fairfax County, the first time a Dem had done that in 40 years. Since then, the margins of victory just grow. In Presidential races, VA is clearly in the Dem column thanks to rapidly changing demographics.
In 1990 15% of the population of Fairfax County was foreign born; today it is 30%. Arlington County and Alexandria provide the Dems with even more votes. In 2012 Obama won Fairfax County by 110,000 votes; Arlington County by 47,000; Alexandria by 32,000; and Prince William County by 29,000. Toss in Richmond which Obama won by 56,000 and Norfolk which Obama won by 40,000 and you have a cushion of 314,000 votes. This is a very difficult amount to overcome in an election where a total of 3.8 million votes were cast.
Obama won VA by 149,000 votes in 2012 compared to 235,000 votes in 2008. Obama actually received 12,000 more votes in 2012 than he did in 2008, but the GOP upped its total in 2012 by nearly 100,000 thru a Herculean GOTV effort but still lost easily.
The bottom line is that the Dems have the numbers and if they get turnout percentages just equal to the GOP, the Dems will win. It also bears mentioning that VA has a black population of 19.7%, a solid Dem constituency.
The Dems are already too overrepresented with the top offices, and I expect this will be unsustainable. The GOP had that same sense of certainty and cockiness in the '90s that blew up in their faces, and it will happen to the Democrats in VA.
I disagree. VA does not have the same electorate it had in the 1990s. VA is going the same way NV and CO are going. CA has already gone. In Presidential elections. states go purple and then blue, not the reverse with the possible exception of WV.
By 2019 half of the children 18 and under will be minorities as defined by the USG. By 2041 half of the country will be minorities. We bring in 1.2 million legal permanent immigrants annually, 87% of whom are minorities. In 1970 one in 21 in this country was foreign-born; today it is one in 8, the highest in 90 years; and within a decade it will be one 7, the highest in our history. This has electoral consequences. Demography is destiny.
NB: Hillary will win VA easily in 2016.