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I have lived in VA for the past 34 years, been active in local GOP politics, been a delegate a number of times at the GOP state conventions, and participated as a poll watcher many times. I find your analysis of what is happening here in VA wildly off the mark. VA is a purple state and is trending solid blue within a decade. Any Rep running for statewide office has to be considered a decided underdog.

This is the 2012 map for President with the proper blue=Republican, red=Democrat colors. VA Democrats have lucked out by having subpar Republicans or RINOs to run against over the past decade. Even when we get one through handily (McDonnell), they end up having bringing in baggage that damage the ticket (or the RINOs sabotage the ticket, as they did with Cuccinelli).

The map shows counties and cities. It doesn't reflect where most of the voters live. NoVA has more than one-third of the voters and it is becoming bluer by the day. The Dems build up huge margins of victory in NoVA, and in the cities to offset the southern and rural parts of the state. You can use similar maps for PA and MI and still get the same results for the Dems.

Here in Fairfax County, the largest in the state, the Dems have taken over. In 2004 Kerry won Fairfax County, the first time a Dem had done that in 40 years. Since then, the margins of victory just grow. In Presidential races, VA is clearly in the Dem column thanks to rapidly changing demographics.

In 1990 15% of the population of Fairfax County was foreign born; today it is 30%. Arlington County and Alexandria provide the Dems with even more votes. In 2012 Obama won Fairfax County by 110,000 votes; Arlington County by 47,000; Alexandria by 32,000; and Prince William County by 29,000. Toss in Richmond which Obama won by 56,000 and Norfolk which Obama won by 40,000 and you have a cushion of 314,000 votes. This is a very difficult amount to overcome in an election where a total of 3.8 million votes were cast.

Obama won VA by 149,000 votes in 2012 compared to 235,000 votes in 2008. Obama actually received 12,000 more votes in 2012 than he did in 2008, but the GOP upped its total in 2012 by nearly 100,000 thru a Herculean GOTV effort but still lost easily.

The bottom line is that the Dems have the numbers and if they get turnout percentages just equal to the GOP, the Dems will win. It also bears mentioning that VA has a black population of 19.7%, a solid Dem constituency.

The Dems are already too overrepresented with the top offices, and I expect this will be unsustainable. The GOP had that same sense of certainty and cockiness in the '90s that blew up in their faces, and it will happen to the Democrats in VA.

I disagree. VA does not have the same electorate it had in the 1990s. VA is going the same way NV and CO are going. CA has already gone. In Presidential elections. states go purple and then blue, not the reverse with the possible exception of WV.

By 2019 half of the children 18 and under will be minorities as defined by the USG. By 2041 half of the country will be minorities. We bring in 1.2 million legal permanent immigrants annually, 87% of whom are minorities. In 1970 one in 21 in this country was foreign-born; today it is one in 8, the highest in 90 years; and within a decade it will be one 7, the highest in our history. This has electoral consequences. Demography is destiny.

NB: Hillary will win VA easily in 2016.

Just when I get finished mentioning I don’t use the Orwellian newspeak colors... how can we ever hope to win the ideological war when the right unapologetically accepts the willful mis-labeling given to them by the left. Red is a leftist color, not blue. When you say it’s going “blue”, it’s not going leftist. It’s ignorant and it’s offensive (I’m not strictly directing it at you... but at all Conservatives that blindly use the wrong colors to denote ideology).

I think you’re unnecessarily panicking based on recent elections and presuming things will continue to worsen and that it’s all over for the VA GOP. Zero barely carried the state in 2012 and again, the state moved more to the GOP side over 2008. We had a horrid candidate both years, neither of which motivated Conservative voters. With a better candidate, there’s no reason to believe the state would not vote Republican.

Add in there’s no way Terry McAwful would’ve won in November had McDonnell’s corruption and Bolling’s sabotage not helped to do in Cuccinelli (with more than a little help from a faux Libertarian). McAwful is the first candidate since Mills Godwin in 1965 to win the Governorship with a minority of the vote. McAwful’s “win” also wasn’t able to alter the dynamics of the legislature.

You also presume that for the foreseeable future that voting patterns will remain a certain way based on demographics. That’s foolish, because they can and do change. My state, TN, changed dramatically. So has West Virginia. It was pronounced at the end of the ‘90s that VA would be Republican without exception. NoVA was wealthy and suburban Republican for decades.

You give the example of VA going the way of NV and CO. Well, Nevada hasn’t elected a Democrat Governor since 1994, and keeps at least 1 GOP Senator (both Senators would be Republican if Reid hadn’t lucked out by getting a horrid opponent in 2010 — Reid is enormously unpopular in his state).

Colorado has had unfettered Democrat control for most of the past 8 years and it has blown up in their faces, and their elected officials are very unpopular (and aside from Governor & Lt Gov, the downballot offices are Republican). In many of these states, why the GOP doesn’t have a Senate seat or Governorship is because of damaged nominees or party infighting... the exact problem that has plagued Virginia.

That’s the problem with studying political science and trying to project into the future... it’s an inexact science. Dynamics change, how people vote doesn’t often make logical sense.

Lastly, I wouldn’t definitively claim Hillary is unbeatable in Virginia. She’s a toxic candidate with baggage back to Watergate. Would I then claim she is absolutely beatable ? No. Because we already know the RINO Establishment is utterly comfortable with Democrats ensconced in office (how many Bollingites and Hagerites cast their lot for McAwful in ‘13 and Mark Warner in ‘01). If they foist a 3rd consecutive ringer for ‘16 (Chris Christie), it would be Hillary’s to lose (and she merely need carry the same states as Zero in ‘12).

I’ll add in, too, that we don’t even know the future of our current party system. How long can the Republican Party remain in its current state with the vast disconnect from its leaders on every front from its base ? They are as hostile to us as the Democrats. Although the Democrat base grumbles about their officials, they still vote the way they want them to. Getting rid of the corrupt, statist, crony capitalist, big government cabal in the GOP, the rich Willard stereotype, and forging ahead with a new coalition pledged to smaller government, reformist government and economic opportunity and personal empowerment offered by Ted Cruz and Sarah Palin and their supporters, and we’ll create a new dynamic for the future.

The GOP Establishment and Democrats are terrified at such a vision and movement, because it destroys the control of the former and creates fissures in the racial/gender holds of the latter. Each has to maintain the status quo to keep power, why they’re so often in bed together. It’s this kind of revolutionary change that MUST happen if we are to keep this country for the future.