Posted on 10/03/2013 3:17:32 AM PDT by Mozilla
David Buckner, the founder and CEO of Bottom Line Training and Consulting, an adjunct professor at Columbia University, and the author of “Permission to Think,” explained on the Glenn Beck Program Wednesday why America hasn’t yet seen hyperinflation — but why it could be just around the corner.
Buckner said that in discussing hyperinflation, people often refer to the Weimar Republic, Zimbabwe, and Bolivia, but say “it could never happen here” because a “certain kind of layering has to occur” that America hasn’t seen.
That layering, he said, or the “recipe” for hyperinflation, is:
1) Economic Implosion
2) Collapse in tax revenues
3) Raise taxes
4) Lenders unwilling
5) Austerity or print
Beck seemed shocked by the list, saying all five have occurred.
But Buckner said some still squabble about certain points in the list — and regardless of whether we satisfy the recipe, people still say three things in America are “different,” and set us apart from the standard formula.
First, it is said that “everyone wants to buy our debt,” and no one will ever stop wanting to do so. But Buckner countered that China is already quickly shifting our debt quickly to gold, and analogized the situation to a restaurant where China, the chef, lends the United States money to eat at its establishment. Pretty soon, he said, there will be other customers, like India, who can pay outright.
Second, some also claim that “we’re not printing money” because “we’re exchanging an asset – a bond – for cash.”
“What they’re not saying is where that bond’s coming from – treasuries. As soon as the government puts it out there, the Fed comes and takes it,” Buckner said. “It’s circular, it’s absolutely circular. So we are printing money.”
The third factor that many say differentiates America is that we are a “productive” country, but Buckner said he disagrees there, as well.
What exactly does America produce these days, he asked? We have Apple, but the products are primarily manufactured overseas. We have a good financial sector, but can we depend on that in tough times? Others cite the country’s many innovators as something we “produce,” but Buckner noted that innovators are “produced” elsewhere, also.
“And everybody says, well you’re not seeing hyperinflation,” Buckner said, but that’s because, “the interest rates are so low, nobody’s putting that cash back into investments in the United States. But they are putting it into desperate countries in Europe. They’re putting it into other investments. And the money’s going out there, so the second Bernanke raises the interest rates, all of the sudden the money sucks back into the United States and we have hyperinflation.”
Beck asked Buckner if we need an “event” of some sort to trigger such a meltdown.
“We’ve had an event, but…we’ve become comfortably numb,” Buckner said. “So there’s been a lot of hidden stuff that’s going on. The treasuries continue to go out, and Bernanke continues to buy debt. [But] anytime he starts to back off the markets freak out, because they know. The markets know. But we don’t, the people don’t. People who are retired, pensioners, elderly, people who are holding money are going to be devastated.”
When Beck asked for a timeline, Buckner said that by January of 2015, if not by October in 2014, we are likely to see “an increase in interest rates which will start the domino.”
“When Bernanke announced that there would be a tapering, the markets just dropped because they knew that even if the interest rates changed one infinitesimal amount, it was the beginning of the domino,” he said.
“How fast do the dominoes go down?” Beck asked.
“Three months,” Buckner replied without hesitation. “You listen to many of the economists — within three months. And it’s going to be perception more than real price. You’re going to see hoarding, you’re going to see fear. It’s not the actuality. So if they can put a glaze over everybody…it’s may slow it down. That”s the problem, is we’re dealing with an illusion. It’s an illusion of what is real. We don’t have the money. So the interest rates go up, you’re going to see a domino.”
Like zombies, but not interested at all in brains.
Food has already risen 40% in the last year or so and gas stays high for no real reason.
They don’t allow us to keep livestock where I live. I guess some may have to setup communes with families that are willing to work hard and pitch in to help each other out sort of like The Walking Dead only the zombies are the Obamazombies...
Bitcoins, hmmm....How many bitcoins can you bury in your backyard in a mayonnaise jar?
It’s critical to know the functional difference between inflation and hyperinflation. It is not just a difference in scale.
Inflation is when the price of goods and services rises, *in relation* to the availability of goods *or* the availability of money. So this means that one of three conditions applies:
1) The price of goods or services rises “because it can”, that is, because the market can tolerate it. Prices rise until consumption drops, with the good or service finding “it’s own level”.
2) There is a decline in the availability of goods. A shortage. Since *less* can be sold, it costs more, if people are willing to pay more.
3) There is too much money available. The markets raise prices because more consumers can afford it. This is not dependent on the availability of goods.
However, hyperinflation has different rules:
1) First, there must be too much money available. And not just some, but a lot. Built up, but not yet in the economy.
2) Second, typically there is a business connection between producers and retailers. Producers only want to produce what retailers can sell, so limit their production to fit. However, if speculators intervene between the two, offering higher prices than the retailers, three things happen at once.
Not just inflation caused by shortage of the product, but inflation because of the speculation. Then the speculator sells into this shortage, increasing prices further. And because there is a surfeit of money available, prices get even higher.
Often, hyperinflation can happen on the heels of deflation, in which there are too many goods, at too low a price, because there is a *shortage* of money in the economy, even if there is lots of money just outside the economy.
There is also a potential problem with the dollar itself. While virtual money can instantly inflate or hyperinflate, physical money cannot. That is, no, they just cannot print more. They even can’t print higher denominations, either.
The US has only two printing offices for currency. And working all the time, they can barely print enough physical dollars to support 4% of US daily retail. If it was the only money we had, it would instantly be worth 25 times its face value. That is, it is “deflated” by 25 times.
However, virtual money can be “printed” with the touch of a button on a computer. If the government wanted to it could inflate or hyperinflate it instantly.
So if there is hyperinflation, it might cause a “currency split”, in which everybody wants physical money, and nobody wants virtual money.
Importantly, only physical money is “legal tender”, good for all debts, public and private. Virtual money is not. So if a retailer demands payment for a debt in physical money; or if you pay in physical money to resolve a debt, it *must* be accepted.
But nobody has to accept credit or debit, checks or drafts or electronic transfer.
Bottom line: it would be a very good idea to have cash on hand, in a safe place at home. You may not be able to trust banks or anyone else holding your money for you.
True.
Deflation is now a far larger threat.
I dont' agree with that, but deflation is not a threat unless it's caused by government action, i.e., the Fed yanking away the cheap credit. Normally occurring deflation is a boon -- it means the currency's purchasing power is increasing.
I don’t believe you understand the devastation that will come
Land would be good as well, especially land with a mortgage as you can pay it back with inflated $.
Just a country girl, here, but what is an “illegal apartment”? Is that a sublet from one renter to another without the landlord’s knowledge?
I do know someone in NJ who has sublet her rented basement.
Where do you live? Here in SW WI, 12oz of name brand, thick sliced hickory bacon is under $4. Still high, of course.
Do I live in bubble?
I pay $12+/- for 7# of fresh bone in, skin on chicken breasts that weigh about 2#/ea or a bit less. I can get a package for $10 if they are at the best by date. Frozen fillets are 3# for under $7. Whole roasters are in 2paks for around .70/#. I just paid 4.99/# for a whole strip loin and $3.69/# for a whole top sirloin. About $116 for 30# of prime meat. Just got done portioning it for the freezer and sampling some of each and it was prime: tender, flavorful, well-marbled, with the right amount of fat cap. Both whole muscle cuts have been absent for nearly 8-12 months as even Sam’s would rather sell it by the pound as steak, so when my local IGA had their annual meat sale, I stocked up on my two favorite cuts. I also found a manager’s special package of 1” thick rib eyes for 4.99/#.
A 6oz can of StarKist Albacore in water is just about the same as posted at about $2+. I usually buy the 8-paks at Sam’s for around $11& change.
Someone mentioned propane. My bulk propane last year was $1.89/gallon and I haven’t received this year’s quote, yet. But I use the 20# tanks regularly in my business and the exchange rate has been the same, at a little under $18 for years, now. I think a new full tank (and they do hold less than they did 5 years ago)is $45 or so. I get 25-26 hours out of one tank.
I am in a rural area just East of the Mississippi. Most of the prices I see posted here are eye-watering to me.
Better prices than here in York, PA. Nice.
Not bad at all.
I would definately stock up at those prices.
Too many people don’t understand the way money works.
I can predict a crap storm is coming but I don’t know exactly how and when. There is no safe harbor in this storm.
Even looking back at Germany in the 30’s with hindsight there was no way out that I can see. The only way out was leaving EARLY.
When Glenn Beck told us to start and prepare, we used every spare nickle to buy those things we thought would be useful. We have saved ourselves so much money because food has gone up so much in the last few years.
Thanks to Beck, we are ready and able to care for ourselves and some others if need be.
If we never use everything, we still feel “free” and more relaxed about the future in case it is needed.
It may come that everything will be just fine. but just in case, peace of mind is everything.
There is inflation but it isn’t counted. Food, energy, taxes. There is deflation that isn’t counted. Unemployment, reduced investing, and reduced private sector spending. The Feds don’t count anything that makes them look bad.
“commercial tobacco tastes like crap compared to the homegrown”
I am in full agreement with you on that. I do not smoke only chew it and it is so much better tasting and chemical free.
I had a row this year with 24 plants with 2 of each type. I let all 24 go to seed. I got seeds running out of my ears
I've got an extra 300 sq ft of garden that I just opened up that will be dedicated to tobacco next year.
/johnny
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