if ya have to ask, well... maybe you shouldn't have the job
Posted on 06/05/2013 7:11:37 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Traders confused: is the job market improving, or not?
Markets were volatile again today, this time on signs that the jobs market may not be as strong as some hoped. A report on private sector employment by ADP was weaker than expected, as was an employment gauge released as part of a survey of purchasing managers in the services industry.
That is causing some to consider lowering their estimates for Friday's critical May jobs report.
This is confusing, because Fed officials have been talking about tapering their purchases of bonds as the job market improves.
So which is it? To add to the confusion, we got the Fed's Beige Book today, and Fed officials sounded a bit more optimistic about the economy, noting gains in autos sales, real estate,and bank lending, and also noting hiring gains in several districts.
It's true that if the job growth does not materialize as the Fed envisions, they can simply continue their program of buying bonds...or even increase it. But the enthusiasm with which some Fed officials are pushing the tapering talk is causing some alarm...the Dallas Fed's Richard Fisher even went as far to say that the 30-year rally in bonds was over. Strong words.
If that wasn't enough to worry about, the markets are again being held hostage to the dollar/yen trade. After weakening for almost seven straight months, the yen has been strengthening the past two weeks, and did so again today.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnbc.com ...
Uh ... fellas? It’s all lies. Has been for some time. Your whole market thing is a sham. Didn’t you know?
ask Odungo, he’ll tell you the truth
If there are less people working now than 5 years ago...
If a train leaves Chicago at 60 miles an hour with a destination of...
Yes, the numbers were worse than expected. And in addition to the problem with the ADP, there are further weaknesses, as pointed out in an email today sent out today from Chris Low, Chief Economist at FTN Financial, a primary bond trader:
In addition to ADP, there were a couple of other labor related indicators released this morning. The first was productivity, which was little revised in the first quarter. What was revised was unit labor costs, which plunged 4.3%, the biggest drop in years. The weakness resulted from a 3.8% plunge in compensation per hour which in turn reflected the biggest drop in hourly wages ever recorded. Compensation was weak because pay was pulled into the fourth quarter, but for some reason the BLS did not recognize it until the revision.
The second piece of news was in the ISM non-manufacturing report. The headline activity index was about as expected at 53.7. But the employment index fell to 50.1, the same as the manufacturing index and the weakest since December 2011.
Bottom line: All three labor-related indicators today suggest weakness. The ADP and ISM reports point to slow hiring in May, while the revised compensation figures in the productivity release suggest a deterioration in the quality of jobs in the first quarter. (Though this latter is in part a reflection of timing as employers anticipated a tax hike on January 1.) All three point to a weak employment report, both in terms of job quality and quantity.
—Chris Low
He’s getting ready to bring the market to your ankles
on purpose as planned
If I'm right about this, then mortgage default rates, not GDP growth or the unemployment rate, are the best indicator of the Fed's bond purchase plans.
>> So which is it?
Why does it have to be either one?
The equities market is fickle, in the short term. Always has been — always will be.
explaining day to day moves with precision is a fool’s errand.
We are seeing Jimmy Carter II at work.
Carter was stupid, this clown is evil
if ya have to ask, well... maybe you shouldn't have the job
If there is neverending confusion, the answer is usually no.
Over the last 12 years, January 2001 to January 2013, the United States added a combined total of 2,291,000 jobs both government and private sector.
The average addition of jobs over 12 year periods from 1965 through 2001, was 20,833,000 per 12 years.
This last 12 years saw a jobs increase of 1.73% over the 12 years. The average normal increase every 12 years (again 1965 to 2001) was 28.79%.
From 2009 to 2013, Obama added 1,208,000 jobs. The normal average for four years is 7,887,000.
So you tell me folks, is Obama creating a massive number of jobs?
Not hardly.
It shouldn’t surprise folks too much to know that Bush added 0.82% new jobs in his two terms. Yep, less than 1% growth. The general 8 year average growth 1961 to 2001 was 19.05%.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3025870/posts?page=9#9
I will make it easy for these fools - the economy sucks. They are lying about the stats. Stupid fools blinded by greed and can’t see what is about to go down.
“I will make it easy for these fools - the economy sucks”
Yup. I laugh at the daily L.A. Job reports like they were written for sitcom. It’s simple really: why would anyone be hiring when Odumbocare punishes anyone working more than 30 hours?
The title of this article is misleading. Every trader knows that the current boom/bust market is not based on people’s opinions or thoughts on the market.
It’s not just the lack of jobs, but also the quality of jobs that are created.
I always had a job when GWB was President. Not so much available now that O’Bumbler is President.
eligible workers up... number of employed workers down
how tough can it be?
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