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What Major Demographic Shift? (Take a Closer Look at the Election 2012 Numbers)
American Thinker ^ | 11/08/2012 | Tara Servatius

Posted on 11/08/2012 5:39:33 AM PST by SeekAndFind

Conservatives need to take a collective breath and look closer at the numbers before they buy into the idea that GOP nominee Mitt Romney's defeat was due to some kind of national demographic shift that now makes Democrat presidential candidates' armor impenetrable. Before you give in to the hysteria, here are a few things to keep in mind.

First, Barack Obama's re-election showing was actually pretty unimpressive for a guy whose philosophies voters have supposedly adopted. As of this writing on Wednesday, Obama's vote total stood at an unimpressive 60,119,958. That's about what John Kerry got in 2004 (59,028,444). President George W. Bush actually did far better than Obama in his 2004 reelection quest, posting a vote total that was about 2 million higher (62,040,610) than what Obama got on Tuesday. That's hardly a remarkable finish in a country with a population that has increased. In fact, it's a decline of 9 million votes from Obama's 2008 total.

Had Romney (57,425,441) done as well as McCain did in 2008 (59,934,814), he and Obama would have run neck and neck, virtually matching each other's vote totals. That's hardly the stuff of demographic ruin.

The question Republicans and conservatives need to ask is not why voters showed up for Obama, whose turnout wasn't exactly extraordinary, but why millions of their own voters, people who had pulled the lever for Bush and McCain, didn't do the same for Romney or simply stayed home.

Why did Romney get a full 2,000,000 fewer votes than McCain did? Why did those voters pull the lever for McCain, but not for Romney? Who were they and where did they go? That is what Republican and conservative strategists need to find out.

Is it possible that Republicans and conservative leaning independents just weren't that wild about the guy?

(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012analysis; 2012electionanalysis; demographics; elections; romney
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To: NKP_Vet

Yep, No fire in the belly. Never had his “I paid for this microphone” moment. No guts. No glory.


21 posted on 11/08/2012 6:11:20 AM PST by greeneyes (Moderation in defense of your country is NO virtue. Let Freedom Ring.)
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To: KosmicKitty

RE: A long vanity thread I ran yesterday

Could you show me the link please... Thanks.


22 posted on 11/08/2012 6:11:25 AM PST by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

He didn’t need but the 286,000 well placed votes to win it.
And those votes didn’t show up in those states until AFTER they knew what they needed to win.


23 posted on 11/08/2012 6:12:44 AM PST by MrB (The difference between a Humanist and a Satanist - the latter admits whom he's working for)
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To: muawiyah
this loss of Republican voters will continue because men, unlike corporate trusts, die!.

I don't think that explains much, if anything. Of course some voters die, voters of all ideologies. But young people become old enough to vote and every voters age by four years between each presidentail election.

And many younger voters who'd voted liberal for a time get hit with the reality of real life and eventually become conservative, thus adding to the conservative voters.

The makeup of the voter population isn't static at the older or younger end. There's always some movement in and out of all political parties.

24 posted on 11/08/2012 6:12:55 AM PST by Will88
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To: SeekAndFind

The big thing I find remarkable is his election win this year with a few minor adjustments to numbers was nearly identical to his first shall we say fraud. What are the chances of that happening?


25 posted on 11/08/2012 6:16:34 AM PST by freekitty (Give me back my conservative vote; then find me a real conservative to vote for)
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To: Carbonsteel
Those that decided to stay home are just a guilty as those that pulled the lever for Obama.

As are those who decided to "stand on principle," and vote for a "real conservative" or a write-in candidate.

26 posted on 11/08/2012 6:18:39 AM PST by Lou L (Health "insurance" is NOT the same as health "care")
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To: DrDude
There are millions of votes to be counted and added to these totals. Take a look state by state to see the percentages of votes counted. CA has only reported 69% of its votes, WA 55%, OR 75%, OH 90%, TX 96%, etc.

Where the GOP lost was among the age groups 18-29 (60% to 37%) and 30-44 (52% to 45%). They comprised 46% of the electorate. Romney won the other age groups but by a narrower margin.

My own theory is that the changing demographics of this country is what is fueling this disparity. By 2019 half of the children 18 and under will be minorities as defined by the USG. Each year a cohort turns 18 and becomes eligible to vote, it will be composed more and more of minorities who overwhelmingly by two to one vote Dem. Our immigration policies are driving most of these changes. The Dems are well on their way to becoming the permanent majority party.

27 posted on 11/08/2012 6:23:01 AM PST by kabar
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To: SeekAndFind

The way to turn women around is to get them married!

Although, that’s getting tougher to do... Because, men don’t WANT To get married while they’ve got barely-above-minimum wage jobs.

As I look at the data, what jumps out at me is... Hispanic and Asian minorities. They were HUGELY for Obama. We’ve got to cut into that lead. Both groups have significant numbers of people who are conservative in their personal philosophy. There’s no reason they should not feel welcome in the Republican Party.

We’ve allowed ourselves to be painted as “against them” because of our oppostion to amnesty for illegals. That’s nonsense... but, Dems have convinced them. Somehow, we’ve got to get immigration reform settled and find a way to connect with their self-identification.

Problem is, I don’t see how that’s possible with Obama and Reid comprising 2 of three part of he negotiation.


28 posted on 11/08/2012 6:23:27 AM PST by SomeCallMeTim ( The best minds are not in government. If any were, business would hire them)
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To: Will88

Where the GOP lost was among the age groups 18-29 (60% to 37%) and 30-44 (52% to 45%). They comprised 46% of the electorate. Romney won the other age groups but by a narrower margin.


29 posted on 11/08/2012 6:26:26 AM PST by kabar
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To: SeekAndFind

Bump for later read


30 posted on 11/08/2012 6:26:26 AM PST by crosslink (Moderates should play in the middle of a busy street)
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To: kabar
Where the GOP lost was among the age groups 18-29 (60% to 37%

We WON those groups...among white voters.

Our problem is: Minorities. There are just MORE of them. Especially in the younger age groups.

We don't have to WIN among minorities.. but, we can't lose 70-87% of them, and expect to win...EVER.

31 posted on 11/08/2012 6:27:08 AM PST by SomeCallMeTim ( The best minds are not in government. If any were, business would hire them)
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To: 2banana

In Ohio, not all the votes are counted, yet. The Provisionals will take a while.

THAT SAID, Republicans turned out BETTER on Ohio in 2012, than in 2008, by at least 85,000.

Dem turnout was down 15,000.

It’s not that Repubs didn’t show up in the key states, it’s that the Dems ground game was far better, despite the Romney Campaign’s historic ground game.


32 posted on 11/08/2012 6:27:37 AM PST by tcrlaf (Election 2012: THE RAPTURE OF THE DEMOCRATS)
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To: NKP_Vet

I’m going to reject that analysis.

Romney did respond to the ads, it’s just the mainstream media refused to PLAY the responses. Watching the evening news shows, every cut allowed was Romney RESPONDING to something about Obama for two seconds. That’s it...

We can register all the people in the world, but it won’t mnatter if we can’t get the messages out above the din created by an ENEMY MEDIA...


33 posted on 11/08/2012 6:30:59 AM PST by tcrlaf (Election 2012: THE RAPTURE OF THE DEMOCRATS)
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To: SeekAndFind
Could you show me the link please... Thanks.

Certainly :-)

Why Obama Won - http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/2956589/posts

The changing demographics of the voting population has made me realize that we have to sit down and do a thorough analysis of who the people casting votes are and how we can reach them. Won't be easy, may take time, but I really believe that it can be done

We know that dependency leads to enslavement, but how do we get that message to women who have been dependent for several generations.

Sad part, the ones who are paying the price are these women's sons. Who's most likely to die of a violent crime? Young, black, urban males. That's the cost of relying on the government instead of a man for support.

34 posted on 11/08/2012 6:32:39 AM PST by KosmicKitty (WARNING: Hormonally crazed woman ahead!!)
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To: SeekAndFind
Evangelicals voted 79% for Mormon Romney.

Catholics gave him 48%.

That's the percentages that showed up to vote. What was the percentage of Evangelicals actually went to the polls.

The 2008 election with much higher turnout was still only 61% of the eligible voter pool. This election was lower.

35 posted on 11/08/2012 6:33:42 AM PST by cidrasm
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To: KosmicKitty
We have created a Frankenstein like monster with several generations of women who depend upon the state to support them. And they’re going to keep voting for their meal ticket

You are exactly right.

The flip side of your proposition is that young men in our society have increasingly and most willingly abdicated their traditional roles as providers and protectors. And they have done so in favor of: moral vacuity, passivity, rootless, solipsism and an almost preternatural aversion to personal responsibility.

We have met the Enemy and they are Us. Blame the government and politicians and their vote-buying machines all you want. Ultimately, the problem lies with the electorate. In our role as responsible citizens of a Constitutional Republic: we suck.

36 posted on 11/08/2012 6:35:26 AM PST by andy58-in-nh (Cogito, ergo armatum sum.)
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To: GerardKempf
McCain did better because A) Overall voter turnout was better and B) people liked him more - hes a war hero and C) Romney flipped flopped a lot. The bottom line is that we did not turn out - we lost

McCain did better because of Palin.

37 posted on 11/08/2012 6:37:17 AM PST by IYAS9YAS (Rose, there's a Messerschmitt in the kitchen. Clean it up, will ya?)
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To: Carbonsteel
Mitt Romney wasn't perfect, but he was the right man to get the economy back on track. If you stayed home...you deserve to be destitute...just as the rest of us will be once Obama is finished with us. Your worse then the Democrats!!!!!

Agree 100%. It's bad enough to have the lemmings fall sway to President Santy Claus and his bag of free goodies, but to have our own stab us in the back is appalling.


38 posted on 11/08/2012 6:45:21 AM PST by reagan_fanatic (You are not now, and will never be my President, Mr. Obama.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Is the national exit polling for Catholics made up all the states or what? I mean there should be a state by state breakdown somewhere if that is the case, and I can’t find it. I have found one article that says Ohio Catholics went for Romney by + 9 points, but everything else just seems to be a national number, which is pretty useless.

Freegards


39 posted on 11/08/2012 6:46:36 AM PST by Ransomed
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To: SomeCallMeTim
You got my point. Immigration plus birthrates will ensure that these age groups will become more and more minority dominated. We bring in 1.2 million LEGAL immigrants a year--87% of whom are minorities as defined by the USG. The white fertility rate is below replacement level.

The Census Bureau projects An Older, more diverse nation by Midcentury where 54% will be minorities. The non-Hispanic, single-race white population is projected to be only slightly larger in 2050 (203.3 million) than in 2008 (199.8 million). In fact, this group is projected to lose population in the 2030s and 2040s and comprise 46 percent of the total population in 2050, down from 66 percent in 2008.

40 posted on 11/08/2012 6:51:36 AM PST by kabar
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