The MSM is Wrong about Ohio Early Voting - the Real Numbers from the Ohio SOS

Arec Barrwin ^ | November 3, 2012 | Ohio Secretary of State

[Arec Barrwin]

1. Here are the 2008 early vote totals from the early voting project at George Mason

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

2. Download the Excel Spreadsheet on Early Voting from OH SOS

http://www.sos.state.oh.us/SOS/Upload/news/2012/Early_Voting_Report_2012-11-02.xls

3. You will notice that OH early voting is just like VA early voting. Cuyahoga and Summit are 2 of the top 4 Democratic counties. Cuyahoga is at 95% of 2008 totals and Summit just about the same at 100% of 2008 totals. On average across the state, about a 2-3% decline in Democratic counties.

4. But look at the Republican counties. They are little by themselves but they add up. Union County had 3324 total EV in 2008 and has 7500 in now. Tuscarawas had 9339 in 2008 and 16000 now. Muskingum had 6629 in 2008 but 11900 now. You can find similar results in EVERY single Republican stronghold.

Cuyahoga in 2008 was almost the same as 2004. The difference in Ohio from 2008 to 2012 was the massive dropoff in support for McCain from Republican and swing counties. The (R) enthusiasm is not only back, but it is stronger than ever before.

Why more people aren't doing this kind of analysis is beyond me. Just look at the EV totals released by the states and you can see what is happening.

If I'm reading the numbers wrong, please tell me. But it seems that the OH and VA numbers by county tell the tale -- small decreases in the Democratic areas but huge increases in Republican areas.

[JSDude1]

I also think that not all of the “Democrats” will be voting for Obama, wheras I think virtually all of the “Republicans” will be voting for Romney (with a small contengent of Ron Paul/libertarian nuttos voting for Gary Johnson)!~

[ICCtheWay]

There is another factor in Romney’s favor in states like Ohio - it is the SECRET BALLOT... A fair number of people who are surrounded my die hard Democrats (neighbors, family, friends and coworkers) just do not want to argue, be ridiculed or be castigated by others for doing something common sense like vote AGAINST obama. The Secret Ballot means that others may wonder or even be rude and ask - but one does not have to tell... In this Cable/Satellite TV News, Talk Radio and Internet era... it is neigh on impossible not to be exposed to the truth... Many will never debate others, put up a sign or slap on a bumper sticker... but they vote their conscience in private - Silent Independents.

[Crimson Elephant]

Yep Obama is using his Election Day voters to prop up early voting...I guess to maintain some kind of mirage of competitiveness.

[AFPhys]

LS: Try copying the text of the Word doc, and then pasting it to FR between <pre> </pre> tags

[Yaelle]

Yeah, I always said that when McCain went into the booth, he probably voted for Obama!

[LS]

Still a little jumbled, but better. I don't know how to get it better.

County			2008                           2012		          % CO Decline /Inc   

                      D        R      I                      D                R                      I

Adams          843     1321 410	    410 (-48%)  814 (-38%)     533 (+23)           -40%   
   

Allen               Data Not Avail 	 1049               1946	            2215	                -15%


Ashland           Data Not Avail	 1241               3258                4489                   -27%

				
Ashtabula     1789    1940   5224        2443 (+26%)    2273 (+14%)  5668 (+7%)       +13%


Athens          4393    1054  5447         2298 (-47%)       935 (-11%)   4149 (-.05%)     -20%


Auglaize        437     1502  2019         338 (-22%)        1251 (-16%)   1589 (-.37%)    -25%


Belmont         Data Not Avail            5335                    2397 	   5306                  -.08%


Brown           605   1016 2230            627 (+.03%)      1127 (+.09%) 1754 (+5%)       +.01%


Butler              Data Not Avail             1979                  6883              14776	       -45%


Carrol            620   1061    1949          601 (-.03%)       867 (-23%)   1622 (-16%)        -14%  


Champaign     1653   1820    1636         466 (-71%)      1381 (-24%)   1847 (+11%)      -23%    


Clark              7403    3803    6831       3055 (-48%)      4137 (+.08)   9862 (+30%)       -.05%


Clermont            Data Not Avail            1073                 7084            14,587  	         -14%


Clinton           1366    2039    2044         396 (-71%)   1659 (-18%)     2103 (+.02%)       -23%

Columbiana     2678 1912  3249	1734 (-28%)   2258 (+15%)   5342(+39)                +16%


Coshocton      457   1244  3943         471 (+.02%)  1378 (+.09%)  2565 (-34%)             -.07%

							
Crawford       2018  1965 1808          873 (-57%) 1550 (-21%)   2618 (+30%)                -12%)


Cuyahoga  151,296 36,232 96,224  138,493(-.08%) 52,039 (+30%) 84,669 (-.04%)       -.03%


Darke           743   966   2833             619 (-16%)  1968(+50%)  2587(-.08%)                 -.08%

					
Defiance       620  1196  2701	 585(-.05%) 1133(-.05%)   3754 (.+27%)               -12%

		
Delaware         No Data Available      2799             8754             17,041                           -16%


Erie             5720   2262   6253         3407(-40%)  2458(+.07)    6048(-.02%)		-16%


Fairfield         No Data Available        5475            7984              7612         		-20%


Fayette        880       946    1366          242(-72%)     488(-.48)      1774(+22%)	             -21%


Franklin     48,811 40,334  180,656  33,690(-30%)  36,218(-10%) 149,626(-17%)               -18%


Fulton         552      1653   3150            443(-19%)      1413(-14%)   2255(-28%)                -23%


Gallia (no data at all)


Geauga     1378      3840   8721           1333(-.03%)   3946(+.02%) 8388(-.04%)                -.01%

[Steelfish]

If Cuyahoga and Summit are close to 2008 numbers, what does that say to those who told us that Democratic enthusiasm isn’t as strong in 2012 as it was in 2008?

The Rats have thousands of SEIU, NEA union members, ACLU types, NARAL, Planned Parenthood, LGBT and Rainbow Coalition, high school and college kids and by one report even illegals impressed into their ground game with fleet loads of buses taking even the homeless and mentally retarded to the polls. Do the Republican have a ground game to match?

[Arec Barrwin]

You know now the myth of 2008 - that Democratic base turnout won the election - it didn’t. Kerry maxed out the base and Obama simply maintained it. Obama won because Republicans were unenthusiastic and/or crossed over.

Republicans have come home. That’s why this election will be like 2004.

[Plumres]

In The PA Primary, there was a lot of under voting for Obama. People that left the Presidential pick unchecked. In my county people left the top spot empty on 25% of Democratic ballots cast. In the center of PA some counties had 41% left Obama’s name unchecked. So if you are not proud enough to check Obama’s name and want to send a protest vote to Obama, are you really going to go out of your way to vote for him on Nov 6th.

[Mike Darancette]

If I'm reading the numbers wrong, please tell me. But it seems that the OH and VA numbers by county tell the tale -- small decreases in the Democratic areas but huge increases in Republican areas.

That is the type of information Barone uses in his predictions. The shifting local demographics.

[q_an_a]

the polling average is 13% so I think your suggestion is right on. I expect that very few McCain people - 5% will vote for the president msotly because they have "odd " reasons to protest the Romney ticket. By odd I mean they there are so many topics nobody can say, it's his gun, abortion, faith - why I'm not voting for him.

I'll take 13% across the board from 2008 + tea party and new voters - for a 52-48 win.

[crusader_against_lumpens]

Great analysis. I posted earlier that if we get, on average, 4.5% changeover in the vote state by state, Romney wins. Your analysis is more in-depth and I believe you're right on the money as far as OH. There's no way OH stubbornly stays with 0bama, as if 2010 didn't happen.

[Atlas Sneezed]

Excellent analysis!

[AaronInCarolina]

LS, I don’t think your formulas are right.

Specifically, Cuyahoga County. Your spreadsheet shows a drop in Democratic EV numbers from 151,296 to 138,493 and your spreadsheet displays this as a drop of -.08%. Its actually a drop of about 8.5%. That’s a pretty big drop.

[LS]

Well, aren’t you glad I suck at math?

[LS]

Well, aren’t you glad I suck at math?

[AFPhys]

Hi LS.

I just got back in from knocking on doors. I left just after I wrote the suggestion. I probably could have helped you get it a bit better than that, but that is reasonable for most purposes.

The other thing you ought to check for in MSWord is a “convert tabs to spaces” function. (It has been very long since I worked with Word and I don’t recall if it has that but I would be very surprised if it doesn’t. I typically use LibreOffice, and NotePad++.) Then copy that result to notepad/clipboard, to get that into a plain text and be sure it formatted accurately. After that, the pre-/pre function would work. Usually I can simply paste something into NotePad++ and get it formatted correctly.

HTML typically collapses multiple spaces (and multiple blank lines) into a single space, and uses “proportional fonts”. PRE-/PRE tags force using a fixed-width, Courier by default, and preserves multiple spaces. I find it the lazy way to do tables in HTML.

[AaronInCarolina]

LS, Here is my correction and formatting of your data. The total figure at the bottom does not include the states that did not have data for 2008. but it shows that other than those state, the absentee balloting for Dems dropped by about 9.73% and Republicans increased by 45.78 percent. (Again, these figures may be different if we had the 2008 data for those states.)

                    2008                                  2012     
                                          D Increase      R Increase        I Increase  
Adams         843   1321     410      410 -51.36%     814 -38.38%      533  30.00%     -40% 
Allen                                1049            1946             2215             -15% 
Ashland                              1241            3258             4489             -27% 
Ashtabula    1789   1940    5224     2443  36.56%    2273  17.16%     5668   8.50%      13% 
Athens       4393   1054    5447     2298 -47.69%     935 -11.29%     4149 -23.83%     -20% 
Auglaize      437   1502    2019      338 -22.65%    1251 -16.71%     1589 -21.30%     -25% 
Belmont                              5335            2397             5306           -0.08% 
Brown         605   1016    2230      627   3.64%    1127  10.93%     1754 -21.35%    0.01% 
Butler                               1979            6883            14776             -45% 
Carrol        620   1061    1949      601  -3.06%     867 -18.28%     1622 -16.78%     -14% 
Champaign    1653   1820    1636      466 -71.81%    1381 -24.12%     1847  12.90%     -23% 
Clark        7403   3803    6831     3055 -58.73%    4137   8.78%     9862  44.37%   -0.05% 
Clermont                             1073            7084           14,587             -14% 
Clinton      1366   2039    2044      396 -71.01%    1659 -18.64%     2103   2.89%     -23% 
Columbiana   2678   1912    3249     1734 -35.25%    2258  18.10%     5342  64.42%      16% 
Coshocton     457   1244    3943      471   3.06%    1378  10.77%     2565 -34.95%   -0.07% 
Crawford     2018   1965    1808      873 -56.74%    1550  21.12%     2618  44.80%     -12%
Cuyahoga  151,296 36,232  96,224  138,493  -8.46%  52,039  43.63%   84,669 -12.01%   -0.03% 
Darke         743    966    2833      619 -16.69%    1968 103.73%     2587  -8.68%   -0.08% 
Defiance      620   1196    2701      585  -5.65%    1133  -5.27%     3754  38.99%     -12% 
Delaware                             2799            8754           17,041             -16% 
Erie         5720   2262    6253     3407 -40.44%    2458   8.66%     6048  -3.28%     -16% 
Fairfield                            5475            7984             7612             -20% 
Fayette       880    946    1366      242 -72.50%     488 -48.41%     1774  29.87%     -21% 
Franklin   48,811 40,334 180,656   33,690 -30.98%  36,218 -10.20%  149,626 -17.18%     -18% 
Fulton        552   1653    3150      443 -19.75%    1413 -14.52%     2255 -28.41%     -23% 
Geauga       1378   3840    8721     1333  -3.27%    3946   2.76%     8388  -3.82%   -0.01% 
Total      234262 108106  338694   211475  -9.73%  157599  45.78%   364779   7.70%  

[LS]

Thanks. Beautiful job. Realize this is not the whole chart, just the first 20+ counties ONLY for the purpose of showing that D losses are not offset by I increases. So it’s clear that Ds are down, not just being reclassified as “Unaffiliated” as some claim.

[Ravi]

Some of these counties are annoying me. They refuse to give us the data so we can keep it utd. That table above is grossly out of date for many republican counties for that reason. Warren, butler and clermont,I’m looking at you. They seem to only give data to the political parties. Please give it to us the general public.

Most dem counties are completely utd so KEEP THIS IN MIND!

Most counties use a simple algorithm to keep the running totals easy to follow and keep accurate. I hope for 2014 and 16, all counties use this simple application. Husted, make it happen. But i digress.

Dems are dems are dems. I showed ls using erie county as an example. We picked the first page of absentee voters labeled “dem” by erie. This is the exact data inputted into the spreadsheet. Several of these “dems” did not vote in the 2012 democratic primary but presumably had voted in prior years’ dem primaries so they kept their scarlet letter even though they did not vote in the 2012 dem primary.

There is a misconception that if you did not vote in the 2012 dem primary, you lose ur democrat label. Simply not true based on our erie example.