Some of these counties are annoying me. They refuse to give us the data so we can keep it utd. That table above is grossly out of date for many republican counties for that reason. Warren, butler and clermont,I’m looking at you. They seem to only give data to the political parties. Please give it to us the general public.
Most dem counties are completely utd so KEEP THIS IN MIND!
Most counties use a simple algorithm to keep the running totals easy to follow and keep accurate. I hope for 2014 and 16, all counties use this simple application. Husted, make it happen. But i digress.
Dems are dems are dems. I showed ls using erie county as an example. We picked the first page of absentee voters labeled “dem” by erie. This is the exact data inputted into the spreadsheet. Several of these “dems” did not vote in the 2012 democratic primary but presumably had voted in prior years’ dem primaries so they kept their scarlet letter even though they did not vote in the 2012 dem primary.
There is a misconception that if you did not vote in the 2012 dem primary, you lose ur democrat label. Simply not true based on our erie example.
First one comment about a national bellwether county to tell us which way the election is going early in the nite. Indiana polls close at 7:00 est. Vigo county (terre haute) has not missed a national winner since 1956 and has been within 3% of the popular national vote every election from 1960 onwards up until 2008. It overestimated BO’s number by 4.4% in 08 giving him 57.3% when he received 52.9 nationally.
I ENCOURAGE EVERYONE TO FOLLOW VIGO SO WE WILL KNOW HOW THINGS SHAPE UP EARLY.
Now for OH, I still go to my ohio bellwethers. Wood, Tuscarawas, clark, stark and Hamilton. All of these counties except for hamilton we are overperforming anywhere from 8 to 29%.
Hamilton is interesting because an astonishing 63% of early/ab voters are UAF. I think in Hamilton, these are mostly conservatives. As opposed to Franklin, I think a large portion of the UAF are libs. But even in franklin, we are overperforming 08 by 4%. And 36,000 fewer early voters in franklin compared to 08. Most of the other counties have long passed their 08 totals.
Great analysis on the “missing” Dems. LS and I were having this chat a couple of days ago. Lots of Democrats are making the (fake) point that Independents are really Democrats in OH as this Democrat primary was not contested
This has been proven false by multiple people